700
AXPZ20 KNHC 071601
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1005 mb is near
13N99W, or about 130 nm off the coast of southern Mexico.
Satellite imagery shows that numerous moderate to strong
convection continue to become better organized from 11N to 16N
between 93W and 101W. Strong to gale force winds and seas
of 8 to 11 ft are within 90 nm of the coast of western Oaxaca
and Guerrero this morning accompanied by rough seas. Recent
satellite data suggest that the system does not yet have a well-
defined circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form during the next day or two as the system
moves west-northwestward just off the coast of Mexico, and will
possibly reach near Socorro Island early next week. Locally heavy
rains are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system. Gale conditions and rough
to very rough seas are forecast for the offshore waters of
southern and western Mexico through early Mon. This system has a
high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A low pressure system (Invest EP91) is located about 520 nm
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico near 10N109W
with a a pressure of 1007 mb. Satellite imagery shows
disorganized scattered moderate convection from 07N to 14N
between 107W and 112W. Seas to 8 ft are within about 270 nm to
the southwest of the low pressure. Continued gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
northwestward. This system has a high chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
across southern Costa Rica, and to 10N84W to 13N99W to
10N109W and to 07N129W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 07N129W to 07N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
trough between 124W-129W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between
129W-134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on two
areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone
development.

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally
gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California,
with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San
Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off southern Mexico
and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft off
Baja California primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5 ft primarily in
long-period SW swell off southern Mexico, with the exception of
the strong winds related to Invest EP92 as described above under
Special Features. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for a
tropical depression or tropical storm to form off southern
Mexico described in the Special Features section. Expect fresh to
strong winds with rough seas over the offshore waters off
western Oaxaca and Guerrero this morning, with the range of these
seas of 7 to 11 ft in south to southwest swell.

These adverse conditions will expand westward across the offshore
waters toward Cabo Corrientes through early next week as low
pressure farther to the south off the coast possibly becomes a
tropical depression. Mariners should continue to monitor the
latest statements from the National Hurricane Center on the
possible tropical cyclone development. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell are expected
elsewhere outside the impacted waters of the Special Feature low
pressure (Invest EP91) through the weekend. An area of low
pressure is forecast to develop late next week south of southern
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system as it moves west-
northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it.
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish into Sat.
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere.
Moderate seas in cross- equatorial swell are likely over the
regional waters into this weekend. Abundant deep tropical
moisture will persist across the region maintaining a high
likelihood of additional showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

1028 mb high pressure is located well north of the area near
42N143W. A rather persistent surface trough extends from a
1014 mb low that is north of the area at 35N127W, south-
southwestward to 30N125W and to near 24N129W. No significant
convection is occurring with this features. Moderate NE winds
along with 8 to 9 ft NE swell persist east of the trough north of
25N. Seas are reaching 8 ft along 10N between 135W and 140W.
Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and
SW swell persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, guidance indicates that a trough will form
within the area of the moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds during the weekend and shift westward. The gradient
between the trough and the high pressure to the north should
extend the duration of the moderate to fresh northeast winds
through late in the weekend, and possibly into early Mon even
as the trough shifts west of 140W. The seas to 8 ft in north
to northeast swell with these winds appear that they will linger
as well.

$$
Aguirre