566
AXPZ20 KNHC 010406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds of 35 to 40 kt
and seas of 12 to 13 ft will prevail into Thu morning as high
pressure settles into eastern Mexico and force gap winds into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the high weakens and slides east Thu
into Fri, winds will gradually diminish. Marine interests
transiting across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed
should take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine
conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 05N94W. The
ITCZ stretches from 05N94W to 10N126W to beyond 06N140W.
Convection N of the ITCZ roughly along 110W is primarily
associated with middle-level features and is described in
sections below.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
refer to the Special Features section for details.

A mid-level trough and deep tropical moisture is inducing
scattered moderate to isolated convection over the outer
offshore waters from Jalisco northward to Nayarit, mainly E of
111W. Low pressure offshore California is drawing in fresh SE
winds that are impacting waters offshore Baja California Norte.
Fresh NW winds are also offshore Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are moderate. In the Gulf
of California, light winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, Fresh SE winds across the Baja California
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia will diminish tonight as a
low pressure N of the offshores moves northward, further way from
the region. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas
to waters offshore Baja California Sat night through early next
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure building N of the region is supporting strong
northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region. Seas of 5 to 8
ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail, except for moderate to fresh N
winds in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to
support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with
moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in
the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. Rough seas generated by
gales in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the
offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight.
Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere into the start of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 23N124W, with a surface
trough bisecting the low from 19N129W to 27N122W. Another
surface trough has formed N of the ITCZ roughly along 109W,
extending northward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Scattered
moderate convection is noted either side of this trough, across
a broad region from 06N to 25N between 104W and 115W. The
impacts of gap winds are leading to fresh NE to E winds across a
zone from 07N and 11N E of 107W. Fresh E to SE winds are also
ongoing S of the ITCZ between 120W and 135W. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker. Rough seas are ongoing where the fresh gap-
associated winds are, and decaying northerly swell is causing 6
to 8 ft seas from 15N to 25N, W of 135W. Elsewhere, generally
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens
tonight, convection will subside. Gap winds will also diminish
allowing winds and seas to lessen into Thu. A cold front is
forecast to reach the far NW tonight and move eastward across the
waters north of 20N through Thu. The cold front will reach from
30N133W to 24N139W by Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are
expected on both sides of the front through Fri. Significant NW
swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas.
By the end of the weekend, seas 8 ft or great should encompass
waters N of 10N and W of 120W.

$$
Ramos