410
AXPZ20 KNHC 250902
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 08.5N83W to low pres
1011 mb near 09.5N115W to 10.5N131W. The ITCZ continues from
10.5N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06.5N to 11.5N between 98W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between weakening high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico, and lower pressure
within the EPAC monsoon trough continues to support fresh winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak surface ridge W of Baja
Norte extends a ridge southeastward to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and a
surface trough across western Mexico is supporting gentle to
moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja
California and extending southward to the waters off of Cabo
Corrientes. Seas across these waters are in the 4-6 ft range.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail over the
remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds,
and seas of 1-3 ft, are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging W of the area will remain
in place throughout the week and continue to support gentle to
locally moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja California
peninsula. Fresh N winds across the Tehuantepec area this
morning will increase to strong to near gale-force Tue through
Tue night, and then again Fri and Fri night. Moderate S swell
will move through the area waters from Cabo Corrientes eastward
Mon night through the middle of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted over and downwind
the Gulf of Papagayo area, where seas are 4-5 ft. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to W
winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds will
prevail across the Papagayo region through Mon night then
diminish. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail
south of the monsoon trough, increasing briefly to moderate to
fresh on Wed. Cross equatorial SW swell moving into the regional
waters this morning will increase seas to 8 ft between Ecuador,
Colombia and the Galapagos Islands through the middle of the
week. The swell will propagate northward, increasing seas to 7 ft
elsewhere Mon evening through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front is over the far NW waters along 30N to the W
of 130W. Moderate SW winds are south of this stationary front to
to 28N and west 125W. Scattered showers prevail across this area. NW
swell generated behind the front is producing seas of 8-9 ft
over the far NW waters. Weak high pressure prevails south of the
stationary fronts and N of 120W. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
17N and W of 112W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft in
new S swell, are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and W of 100W.

For the forecast, the stationary front across the NW waters will
meander along 30N-31N and W of 130W for the next few days, while
low pressure forms along the front just NW of the area waters,
and slowly drift eastward into the area late Wed through Fri.
This will maintain moderate to fresh SW winds and seas around 8
ft across these NW waters through late Tue. To the south,
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue south of 20N,
with moderate seas through Fri. Cross equatorial S to SW swell
has moved into the waters S of 10N overnight and will raise seas
to 8 to 9 ft across the waters S of 16N and E of 130W Mon
through early Wed.

$$
Stripling