028
AXPZ20 KNHC 072206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continues
surging southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of
Mexico in the wake of a recent strong late-season Gulf of
America cold front. The parent high center is analyzed along the
Texas/Mexico near 27N99W. A recent scatterometer satellite data
pass verified the presence of these winds. Seas with these winds
are presently in the range of 8 to 12 ft. The gradient is
forecast note to slacken any time soon. This will bring the
seas up further to the range of 12 to 16 ft by early on Tue as
the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas reaches to near
14N95W. The gale conditions are expected to continue through Wed
morning. Winds will continue to be at least near gale-force Wed
afternoon into early Thu night. Gale conditions are possible
again starting late on Thu night and going into the weekend.
Please refer to the the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure in northwest Colombia,
southwestward to 06N77W and to 04N83W. The ITCZ axis extends
from 08N100W to 06N110W to 06N122W. A second ITCZ axis extends
from 03N92W to below the Equator at 100W and to beyond 05S120W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
north of the northern ITCZ between 110W-115W, and within 60 nm
south of the same ITCZ between 107W-109W, and within 120 nm north
of the second ITCZ between 105W-110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning as well as gale
conditions possible later in the week and into next weekend.

High pressure is present over the waters west of Mexico as a
trough is analyzed just inland Mexico east of the Gulf of
California. The resultant gradient is allowing for generally
fresh to strong northwest to north winds in the central and
southern Gulf of California as shown by overnight scatterometer
data. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are in the
northern of Gulf of California, except for light and variable
winds north of 30N. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
elsewhere offshore southern Mexico around the ridge which extends
across the waters from the high, except in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec where gale-force gap northerly winds are ongoing as
described in the Special Features section above. Seas are 5 to 7
ft in NW swell, except for lower seas of 3 to 5 ft in the central
and southern Gulf of California and 2 to 3 ft in the northern
section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, gale force north winds are ongoing in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region north of 14N. They are are expected to
continue through at least Wed morning before possibly developing
again late Thu night and continue into Sat night. Winds will
continue to be at least near gale-force Wed afternoon into early
Thu night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will
continue across the Baja California waters and offshore of
southwestern Mexico into Tue night as a favorable gradient
between high pressure west of the area and troughing just inland
western Mexico holds in place. Otherwise, a new set of NW swell
will induce rough seas across the Baja California waters Mon
through early on Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The lack of a pressure gradient over the Papagayo region is
allowing for light to gentle southwest winds to exist there.
Seas are 6 ft or less throughout these offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will
become fresh northeast to east winds on Wed, but pulse fresh to
strong mainly at night and into the early morning hours
thereafter as high pressure in the wake of a Gulf of America
cold front builds north of the region. Seas may build to rough
with these winds starting early Thu. Large NW swell will begin to
impact the outer waters of Guatemala Tue through Wed as a
Tehuantepec gale event develops, then again possibly Thu night
into next weekend. Elsewhere, mixed SW and NW swell will maintain
moderate seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
Tue night, with new SW long-period swell expected to reach the
Galapagos Islands by Wed building seas to around 8 ft. Otherwise,
gentle to locally moderate winds are expected across the
remainder of the waters, along with slight to moderate seas,
except moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

The leading edge of an extensive set of NW swell continues
to advance across the western and central waters, with its
leading edge presently extending from near 30N116W to 15N123W
to 09N130W and to 03N140W. The swell is producing seas of
8 to 12 ft, with higher seas of 12 to 14 ft confined from
14N to 19N west of 135W as highlighted in a altimeter satellite
data pass from this afternoon. Latest scatterometer satellite
data passes shows mostly fresh northeast trades from 04N to
24N west of 117W. Across the remainder of the open waters, winds
are mainly light to gentle with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed
southerly and northerly swell.

For the forecast, the extensive aforementioned NW swell will
continue to propagate through the central and eastern waters
while slowly subsiding through late Wed. Another front may move
into the northwest part of the area Wed night into Thu along with
seas of 7 to around 10 ft in long- period NW swell that will be
following it. Meanwhile, long- period southern hemisphere swell
will promote rough seas south of about 05N starting on Tue.
Guidance indicates that the swell will gradually subside late in
the week after its eastern portion merges with swell generated by
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. Looking ahead, winds
may freshen again west of 130W late Fri into next weekend as
high pressure builds across the region there.

$$
Aguirre