788
AXPZ20 KNHC 241525
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 118W from 04N to
17N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 11N between 115W and 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific near 08N82W and
continues to 10N110W and to 08N128W. The ITCZ extends from
08N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W and 90W and from
05N to 15N between 90W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends over the Mexican offshore waters, supporting
mainly moderate NW winds over the Baja California waters and
light to gentle winds offshore southern Mexico, except near Cabo
San Lucas where moderate to fresh NW winds are observed.
Moderate seas prevail. A trough in the Gulf of California is
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh NW winds will occur each night
near Cabo San Lucas as troughing resides over Baja California
Sur. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected to pulse
offshore of much of Baja California through early next week.
In the extended forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to
form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form around
the middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward
at around 10 kt. There is a high chance of tropical formation
within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted in the Papagayo
region and down wind to about 89W. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds are occurring north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to
locally moderate winds are noted to the south. Moderate seas in
SW swells continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Central America and Colombia, with rough seas occurring offshore
Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend. Elsewhere, a long-period SW
swell will move through the South American waters, leading to
rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge dominates most of the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough
and W of 110W while lower pressures are noted E of 100W. Gentle
to moderate NE winds and moderate seas prevail north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Farther south, a long- period SW swell
is producing rough seas south of the equator. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will
prevail north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ today as high
pressure remains centered to the north. Farther south, rough
seas generated by a long-period SW swell will occur south of 05N
into early next week.

$$
GR