298
AXPZ20 KNHC 222049
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A surface ridge extending
along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern
Mexico, and across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to build
across southeastern Mexico and northern Central America, behind
a cold front across the NW Caribbean. This pressure gradient
continues to support gale-force N winds across the Tehuantepec
region, with peak seas estimated at 14 ft. Recent satellite
scatterometer wind data depicted gale-force winds extending
southward within 40 nm of the coast. These winds and seas are
expected to persist through Sat then strong winds will gradually
diminish through Sun. Marine interests transiting across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning should take the necessary
action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over these affected
waters.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 13N117W. The ITCZ
continues from 13N117W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered showers are
noted along the monsoon trough mainly E of 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A broad ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure centered near
26N125W dominates the offshore waters of Baja California. This
pattern is promoting light to gentle winds across the Baja
California offshore waters where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell,
mainly N of 24N. Moderate NW winds prevail in the central Gulf
of California. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across the central and southern
part of the Gulf while seas of 2 to 3 ft area noted over the
northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in
mixed swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale-force N winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through Sat, then strong winds will
gradually diminish through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging will
remain in control of the weather pattern across the Baja
California waters through early next week, supporting gentle to
moderate NW to N winds. Moderate NW swell will continue to
dominate area seas today before subsiding through the weekend.
The high pressure will weaken Sun through Mon as a weak cold
front approaches the Baja Norte offshore waters from the NW.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds across the offshore
waters of southern Colombia and Ecuador where seas are in the 5
to 7 ft range. Moderate convection continues across these waters
E of 90W, fueled by these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle
generally onshore winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail S of 10N,
while winds gentle offshore NE winds have developed across the
waters N of 10N.

For the forecast, NW swell generated by gale-force winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will impact the far western Guatemala offshore
waters through early Sat. A return to offshore gap winds is
occurring across the waters N of 10N today, and will continue
through Mon, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected across
the Papagayo region tonight through early Sun, as high pressure
builds across the NW Caribbean and northern Central America.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail. Looking ahead, cross equatorial SW swell is expected to
move into the regional waters Sun night, increasing seas to 8 ft
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to 7 ft
elsewhere early Mon through Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates most of the N waters N of 10N and W of
110W. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted under the
influence of this system. A cold front in the NW waters extends
from 30N131W to 26N140W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front
covering the forecast waters N of 27N and W of 127W. Seas there
are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell. Swell generated north of the front
is propagating across much of the waters N of 24N W of 118W with
seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds
prevail between 10N and 20N W of 115W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft
in NW swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift SW and weaken
slightly through Sun, ahead of the cold front. The front will
reach from 30N125W to 25N140W by early Sat afternoon while
weakening. The fresh to strong winds ahead of the front will
diminish to 20 kt or less by tonight. Seas 8 to 12 ft in NW
swell that follow the front will subside to less than 8 ft by
late Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
are expected.

$$
ERA