259
AXPZ20 KNHC 071102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Amanda is centered near 11.7N 135.1W at 0900
UTC, moving south-southwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 3.5 m, or 10 ft, within
45 nm across the western semicircle. Scattered moderate
convection is present up to 100 nm northwest of the center. A
gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected Sunday or
Sunday night. Amanda should weaken further and become a remnant
low late this evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with a broad area of low pressure located along the monsoon
trough, a few hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico will
persist today. This system is becoming better organized and a
tropical depression will likely form later today. The disturbance
is forecast to move northeastward and then northward, and will
approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight and Monday.
Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and life-
threatening flash flooding are possible across portions of
southern Mexico through early next week. Currently, this system
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in next 7 days.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for updates.

Offshore of Central America:
Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with a broad area of low pressure along the monsoon trough
offshore of Central America continues today. Environmental
conditions remains conducive for development and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two, while
the system moves slowly northward toward the coast of Central
America. Interests along the Pacific coasts of northwestern Costa
Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and life- threatening flash flooding are possible across
portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala
through early next week. Currently, this system has a high chance
of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
updates.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-northwestward from northwestern Costa
Rica to near 14N96W, then resumes from 13N104W to 09N131W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N E of 90W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection dominates from
07N to 14N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 04N to 11N between 110W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends southeastward from a 1029 mb high northeast
of the Hawaiian Islands near 35N149W to west of the Revillagigedo
Islands near 18N126W. Weak low pressure is across the coastal
waters of southern California. This pattern is producing gentle
to moderate NW winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed NW and SW
swells across waters near Baja California, the Revillagigedo
Islands and central Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NW winds with
locally higher seas are present just south of Cabo San Jose. A
developing low pressure...Invest EP91 mentioned in the Special
Features section is enhancing fresh to strong monsoonal SW to W
winds along with 6 to 10 ft seas in large SW swell offshore of
southern Mexico. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated
strong thunderstorms are occurring within these offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are
expected in the northern Gulf of California until tonight. A
broad surface ridge near 127W will sustain gentle to moderate NW
winds near Baja Norte until Mon evening, Baja Surf and the
Revillagigedo Islands through Wed. The exception will be fresh to
locally strong NW to W winds persisting just south of Cabo San
Jose through Tue evening. From Mon night through Tue night, a
frontal system moving into southern California is going to bring
moderate to fresh NW winds, and moderate to rough seas off Baja
Norte. Afterward, the combination of merging NW and S-SW swell
will prolong moderate to rough seas west of Baja Norte into
midweek next week, and impact waters near Baja Sur and the
Revillagigedo Islands early Mon through Wed. The wet and windy
monsoonal pattern will expand northward toward the coast through
Mon, with winds peaking at near-gale force and seas becoming
very rough.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the near and offshore waters of Central America are
associated with an active monsoon trough, and a developing area
of low pressure along 90W. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

A weak surface pressure pattern dominates the region. Recent
satellite scatterometer data indicated that a weak low pressure
center is beginning to develop along 90W, while the monsoon
trough has lifted to near 11N. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds
prevail across most of the area south of the trough, except
higher near showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds
are generally N of the trough. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in long-period SW
swell dominate the offshore waters of Central America, near
Colombia and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a new set of large SW swell will surge across
the Central America offshore waters today through early Tue. As a
result, moderate seas will quickly become rough by this evening,
and then very rough by Mon morning. At the same time, convergent
monsoonal winds will generate periods of heavy showers and
strong thunderstorms across the regional offshore waters at least
into early next week. Developing low pressure south of El
Salvador and Guatemala will gradually strengthen the monsoonal SW
to W winds across the offshore waters of Central America through
Mon evening. Therefore, anticipate moderate to fresh SW to W
winds across the southern offshore waters to become fresh to
strong by this afternoon, and then strong to near-gale while
expanding northward on Mon. For offshore waters from Costa Rica
southwestward to near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate
southerly winds along with rough seas in long-period SW swell
will prevail through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression Amanda located across the Tropical Pacific W
of 130W.

A broad ridge extends southeastward from a 1029 mb high northeast
of the Hawaiian Islands near 35N149W to west of the Revillagigedo
Islands near 18N126W. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and T.D. Amanda is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds
along with 6 to 8 ft seas across the waters north of 12N and W
of 130W, except seas are reaching 8 to 10 ft near Amanda.
Enhanced by a surface trough to the north, moderate to fresh N
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found north of 24N between 120W
and 130W. Mainly gentle winds with seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed NW
and SW swells prevail across the remaining waters north of the
monsoon trough and east of 130W. South of the monsoon trough
and west of 120W, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 7 to 10
ft seas in large SW swell are evident. Fresh to strong SW to W
monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in long-period SW swell exist
south of the monsoon trough to near the Equator and east of 120W.
Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft in
longe-period SW swell prevail the rest of the waters south of the
Equator.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift
westward and weaken slightly across the area through Mon as
Amanda tracks southwestward over the western portion of the
area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade
wind zone. Larger S to SW will pass the equator this afternoon
and move through the regional waters through early next week,
reaching to 20N tonight through Mon. Northerly swell in the
north-central waters will produce seas of 7 to 10 ft for the
next several days. Fresh to strong monsoonal SW to W winds should
gradually shift northward tonight through Mon evening. 10 to 12
ft seas will peak between 12 and 14 ft tonight through Mon night
before gradually subsiding Tue through Wed.

$$

Chan