075
AXPZ20 KNHC 220914
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from north of 06N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described
below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. Looking ahead, an area
of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward off the coast
of Mexico. This system has a medium chance for development in
the next 7 days.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 06N to 18N moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm west of the wave along the monsoon
trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of
the wave from 13N to 65N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 130W from 06N to 19N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are along
and near the axis from 10N to 13N between 128W and 131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb
over northern Colombia near 10N75W, west-southwestward to 09N83W,
then to 11N98W to 11N110W to 1N120W to 13N130W and to 12N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
180 nm south of the trough between 83W-85W. Numerous moderate
convection exists from 05N to 08N between 95W-103W, and within
120 nm south of the trough between 112W-115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure north of the area to the
Revillagigedo Islands, with a surface trough over the Gulf of
California. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate
northwest breezes and moderate seas off Baja California. Light
to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere off
southern Mexico. Gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf
of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of
the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate northwest winds with
moderate seas west of the Baja peninsula through early next week.
Gentle to moderate winds will develop in the Gulf of California
early next week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW
swell will persist across the remainder of the Mexican offshore
waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters generally
north of about 05N while gentle to moderate winds are noted
south of 05N. Moderate seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
waters north of about 07N through the weekend, except for
moderate to locally fresh winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo
at night through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected south of 05N. Winds become light to gentle over most of
the waters south of northern Costa Rica early next week. Cross-
equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the regional
waters keeping seas in the moderate range today, except in the
lee of the Galapagos Islands, where slight seas are expected.
Another set of large swell will begin to propagate through the
waters off Ecuador and Colombia this evening, and reach the
offshore waters of Central America by Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient
resulting from the combination of the high pressure and
lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate
to fresh trades north of the monsoon trough to near 22N and west
of 125W as noted in scatterometer satellite data passes over
that part of the area. Seas over these waters are in the 6 to 8
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft,
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 6 to 7 ft, are south of the monsoon trough and
west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds, and combined seas of 6
to 8 ft in southerly swell, prevail elsewhere south of the
monsoon trough as noted in overnight altimeter satellite data
passes.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
weekend with little change to current conditions expected.

$$
Aguirre