493
AXPZ20 KNHC 170900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W, from 06N to 15N, moving west at
10 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section.

A tropical wave is along 106W, north of 06N to 17N, moving west
at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N105W to 14N115W to
12N125W. The ITCZ extends from 12N125W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 10N between
85W and 88W, and from 07N to 09N between 100W and 105W. Numerous moderate
convection is ongoing on the northern end of the tropical wave
north of 14N between 94W and 97W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is active from 10N to 12N between 112W and
116W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 13N to 15N
between 120W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from high pressure centered over the north-
central Pacific to near the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. This pattern is supporting moderate NW breezes and
moderate seas off Baja California. Light to gentle breezes and
slight seas are noted farther south off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist west of the Baja
California peninsula through the middle of the week, supporting
gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Moderate
southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California will
diminish today as low pressure over the Colorado River valley
weakens. Farther south, fresh N gap winds will pulse tonight
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and moderate seas in SW swell will persist across the remainder
of the Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds dominate the offshore waters
north of 05N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted
south of 05N. Moderate seas prevail across the whole area.

For the forecast, light to gentle westerly winds will continue
across the waters north of 05N through the weekend while gentle
to moderate southerly winds are expected south of 05N. Cross-
equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, keeping seas in the moderate range, except in
the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging remains in place north of 15N, west of 120W,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of
135W. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh SE winds south of 05N between 130W and 140W. Gentle to
moderate breezes and moderate seas in a mix of SW and NW swell
persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
middle of the week. Combined seas will be rough in pockets south
of 10N and west of 130W through Sun, due to a combination fresh
SE and NE winds. Winds and seas will subside Mon, but expect
another surge of southerly swell south of the monsoon trough
between 115W and 135W by midweek. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

$$
Christensen