140
AXPZ20 KNHC 081500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 21.4N 112.5W at 08/1500
UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently around 38 ft (11.5 m).
Numerous moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the
center, except within 75 nm in the NE quadrant. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is expected
to continue through Thu, followed by a turn toward the north
Thu night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is
expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja
California Sur through Thu. Continued weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours. Large swells generated by Priscilla
are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-
central Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some
coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather
office. As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
additional rainfall is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to
heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk across portions of Arizona,
Utah, through the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far
northwest New Mexico from Thu into Sat morning. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
the latest Priscilla NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.4N 116.2W at 08/1500
UTC, moving east at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft (4.5 m). Numerous
moderate convection is noted within 210 nm in the S and SW
quadrants. Octave is moving toward the east, and a gradual turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today. Some slight weakening is expected during
the next day or so, and Octave is forecast to dissipate on
Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico (EP90): A large and persistent area of
showers and thunderstorms remains disorganized near and to the
west of a broad area of 1006 mb low pressure, Invest EP90,
located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 08N to 17.5N between 92.5W and
104.5W. Currently, nearby winds are 20-25 kt with seas of 8-10
ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week if the system remains over water.
The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to
15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico, and interests there should monitor its
progress. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected
to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of the
week, which could lead to localized flooding, as well as
increasing winds and seas. This system has a high chance for
tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please read the
latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across the SW Caribbean Sea along
11N to across Costa Rica exiting near the Gulf of Papagayo at
10.5N86W to low pressure, Invest EP90, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
near 15N96W, to 16N96W, then resumes WSW of Octave from 14N120W
to 09.5N133.5W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N133.5W to beyond
09.5N140W. Other than the convection discussed in the Special
Features section above, scattered moderate is noted from 01.5N to
08.5N between 77W and 81W, and from 07.5N to 11.5N between
122.5W and 132.5W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla, Tropical Storm Octave, and Low Pressure in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Invest EP90, with a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation.

Dangerous marine conditions continue to impact the waters from
Michoacan to Jalisco and toward Socorro Island, Los Cabos and the
southern portion of the Gulf of California. Farther south,
scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fresh to strong winds and
locally rough seas persist near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated
with a 1006 mb low pressure area, Invest EP90. Moderate to
locally fresh breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere over
Mexican offshore waters, except for gentle breezes and slight
seas over the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will weaken to a tropical storm near
22.2N 113.6W this evening, move to 23.3N 114.7W Thu morning,
24.6N 115.3W Thu evening, 25.9N 115.5W Fri morning, weaken to a
remnant low near 26.8N 115.4W Fri evening, and 27.7N 115.2W Sat
morning. Priscilla will dissipate early Sun. Meanwhile, Octave
will move to 16.0N 114.3W this evening, weaken to a remnant low
near 17.2N 111.5W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Low
pressure, Invest EP90, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing winds
and seas as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Conditions may finally
improve over the offshore waters early next week once all three
systems pass.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds prevail across the majority of the
waters N of 04N/05N outside of any deep convection which is
described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above. Moderate to
fresh S-SW winds are S of 04N/05N. Seas are 5-8 ft in southerly
swell across the offshore waters, highest from offshore Ecuador
to the Galapagos Islands, except 4-7 ft seas offshore Colombia
and near the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region for the remainder of this week and into
the weekend under a weak pressure gradient. The southerly swell
wil gradually subside into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla, Tropical Storm Octave, and Low Pressure in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Invest EP90, with a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation.

Outside of those systems, a weak and broad surface ridge
dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 122W. Gentle winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this ridge,
with moderate winds and seas found elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ and W of 122W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds are S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, with seas of 7-9 ft in
southerly swells mixed with swells from both Priscilla and
Octave resulting in confused and hazardous seas.

For the forecast, Priscilla will weaken to a tropical storm near
22.2N 113.6W this evening, move to 23.3N 114.7W Thu morning,
24.6N 115.3W Thu evening, 25.9N 115.5W Fri morning, weaken to a
remnant low near 26.8N 115.4W Fri evening, and 27.7N 115.2W Sat
morning. Priscilla will dissipate early Sun. Meanwhile, Octave
will move to 16.0N 114.3W this evening, weaken to a remnant low
near 17.2N 111.5W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Low
pressure, Invest EP90, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing winds
and seas as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. High pressure should
build across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the wake
of the tropical systems during the weekend into early next week.
The southerly swells to rough over the southern waters will
gradually decay into the upcoming weekend. New northerly, rough
swell may propagate into the N-central waters by the end of the
weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky