873
AXPZ20 KNHC 142044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across
southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo near 11.5N86W to 1008
mb low pressure, Invest EP91, near 12N92.5W to 12.5N100W to
10N106W to 11N112W to 08N120W to 09N129W. The ITCZ extends from
09N129W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01N to 07.5N between the coast of Colombia at 77W and 81W,
from 02N to 08N between 82W and 92W, from 08.5N to 16N between
86W and 95W, and from 06N to 15N between 95W and 100W. Similar
convection is noted from 09.5N to 12.5N between 137W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from SW Arizona southwestward to across the
northern Gulf of California while broad high pressure is W of
Baja California ahead of a cold front now moving S of 30N. A
tight gradient associated to the trough was producing fresh to
strong SW winds over the northern Gulf waters per a recent ASCAT
scatterometer pass, with locally fresh NW winds behind the trough.
Fresh to near gale-force northerly gap winds are ongoing in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec with 1008 mb low pressure, Invest EP91, SE
of the Gulf along the monsoon trough near 12N92.5W, per recent
ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft. As
mentioned, a cold front is moving S of 30N currently just W of
the outer Baja California Norte waters with moderate to fresh SW
winds ahead of it. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker under
the broad high pressure, locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes and
Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 5-7 ft W of 110W and offshore Baja
California in NW swell, except building to around 8 ft just ahead
of the front, and 4-6 ft elsewhere E of 110W in primarily S-SW
swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are 4-6 ft in the
northern portion, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the northern Gulf
of California will linger into Wed as a cold front approaches
with troughing ahead of it. Northerly swell will spread through
the waters W of Baja California tonight into Wed in the wake of a
weakening cold front that will move across Baja California and
the Gulf of California. Winds will freshen behind the front
offshore Baja California through mid-week as high pres builds
in locally strong from near Cabo San Lazaro northward Wed night
into early Thu. Winds then will weaken there by the end of the
week into the weekend as the gradient slackens. Fresh to strong
northerly gap winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through at least mid-week. Meanwhile, a broad area of low
pressure, Invest EP91, is near the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
or over the weekend. This system is expected to move little
during the next few days, but a slow northwestward motion near
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is expected by the
weekend. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and
building seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A broad 1008 mb low pressure, Invest EP91, located near the
coast of southern Mexico and portions of Central America, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
as described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above. Associated
winds are moderate to fresh offshore Guatemala and far western
El Salvador. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6
ft in mixed SW and NW swell across the waters.

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of the low pressure area, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or over the weekend. This
system is expected to move little during the next few days, but a
slow northwestward motion near the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico is expected by the weekend. Regardless of
development, expect increasing winds and building seas, mainly W
of the offshore waters of Guatemala. Winds may freshen S of the
monsoon trough as it lifts northward through the remainder of the
week, which would build seas slightly.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front has moved S of 30N, extending from 30N121.5W to
29N126.5W to 30N122W, with moderate to fresh NW-N winds behind
it. Ahead of and behind the front, associated northerly swell of
8-11 ft is already building into the N-central waters N of 28N
between 120W and 135W. A broad ridge is across the waters N of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ ahead of the front. Winds across the
open waters are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft
away from the northerly swell in a wide variety of mixed swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward across
the waters N of 20N through Thu while gradually decaying. Winds
will locally freshen behind the front as high pres builds in.
Associated northerly swells of 8-11 ft will continue to propagate
southward through mid-week before decaying. Farther S, weak low
pressure is likely to form along the monsoon trough between 115W
and 120W through Thu night. Looking ahead, a reinforcing set of
NW swell may arrive by the end of the week into the weekend in
the NW and W-central waters keeping seas to rough, with yet
another set possibly arriving early next week.

$$
Lewitsky