964
AXPZ20 KNHC 192030
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, north of 03N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, north of 05N, moving
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W, from 04N to 17N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below
in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N108W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 08N
to 13N between 89W and 93W, from 07N to 14N between 100W and 130W,
and from 10N to 13N between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from high pressure centered near 31N128W to
Revillagigedo Islands, with a surface trough over the Gulf of
California. This pattern is supporting gentle to locally moderate
NW breezes and moderate seas off Baja California. Moderate to
locally fresh gap winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are
noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. Gentle winds and slight seas
are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of
the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate
seas west of the Baja peninsula through the weekend. Light to
gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will persist across
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
waters north of 05N through the weekend, except for moderate
winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo at night starting Thursday.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected south of 05N. Cross-
equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the regional
waters, keeping seas in the moderate range through Fri, except in
the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected.
Another round of large swell will move into the waters off
Ecuador and Colombia by late Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high
centered near 31N128W. The pressure gradient between this area
of high pressure along with lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the
monsoon trough to 22N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters
are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle winds, and seas of 4-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate
winds, and combined seas of 5-8 ft in southerly swell, prevail
south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
end of the week. A reinforcing surge of southerly swell south of
the monsoon trough is expected between 115W and 135W by midweek.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
AL