098
AXPZ20 KNHC 242116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave previously located along 118W has dissipated.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific near the W Panama/
Costa Rica border and continues to 09N100W to 09N124W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N124W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 78W
and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends over the Mexican offshore waters, supporting
mainly moderate NW winds over the Baja California waters and
light to gentle winds offshore southern Mexico, except near Cabo
San Lucas where moderate to fresh NW winds are observed per
recent scatterometer data. Moderate seas prevail. In the Gulf of
California, mainly light and variable winds and slight seas
are noted, with the exception of gentle to moderate SW winds
over the northern part of the Gulf. These winds are SE of a weak
low there.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh NW winds will occur each night
near Cabo San Lucas as troughing resides over the southern Gulf
of California. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected
to pulse offshore of much of Baja California through early next
week. In the extended forecast, an area of low pressure is
expected to form early next week several hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form around the middle of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 kt. There is a high chance of
tropical formation within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds
across the Papagayo region and down wind to about 88W. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds are occurring north of the monsoon trough,
while gentle to moderate winds are seen south of it. Moderate
seas in SW swells continue to propagate across the offshore
waters of Central America and Colombia, with rough seas occurring
offshore Ecuador, and SW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with strong
trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region
through Mon. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist N of
the monsoon trough with mainly moderate S to SW winds prevailing
to the S of it through early next week. Long period SW swell will
continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters,
leading to rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia through
Sun night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge dominates most of the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough
and W of 110W while lower pressures are noted E of 100W. Gentle
to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail under the
influence of the ridge. Farther south, long-period SW swells are
producing rough seas mainly south of the equator. An altimeter
pass shows seas of 8 ft reaching as north as 05N110W. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across most of the forecast waters N of the
ITCZ/Monsoon trough and W of 110W through at least Tue as a high
pressure center moves slowly E across the NW corner of the
forecast region. This will support moderate to locally fresh
trade winds mainly W of 130W. Farther south, rough seas generated
by a long-period SW swell will occur mainly south of 05N into
early next week.

$$
GR