


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
027 AXPZ20 KNHC 041010 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 14.2N 123.2W at 04/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 12N to 16N between 121W and 126W. The tropical storm is expected to slow and move northward on Sunday, and then turn slowly eastward early next week. Slight strengthening is possible through the weekend. Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico continue to become better organized this evening. However, recent satellite-derived wind data depict a circulation that remains somewhat broad, but if current trends persist, advisories on a tropical depression could be initiated on Saturday. The system is forecast to move very slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, a gale warning is ongoing in association with this system. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For additional information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml and the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 11N90W to 15N112W, then resumes near 11N126W and continues to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 14N E of 99W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 134W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Invest EP99 that has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of Cabo San Lazaro and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Light and variable winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf of California. Winds and seas are on increase across the Mexican offshore forecast waters between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo due to the presence of EP99. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate across the Mexican offshore waters S of Cabo Corrientes this weekend due to a developing tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Unsettled weather conditions persist across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient continues to influence the region, sustaining gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough and light to gentle winds to the N of it. Moderate seas in SW swell dominate the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough into early next week. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of long period SW swell reaching the Galapagos Island tonight into Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist north of the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Octave, and on Invest EP99 located offshore of SW Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Outside of Octave, a dissipating cold front extends from Baja California Norte near 30N114W and extends SW to near 26N125W. Mainly moderate N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell follow the front. Farther south, a surface trough is along 137W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough W of 110W. Moderate to rough seas are noted within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Octave will move to 14.6N 123.9W this afternoon, 15.2N 124.1W Sun morning, 15.6N 123.8W Sun afternoon, 15.8N 123.0W Mon morning, 15.9N 121.9W Mon afternoon, and 15.5N 120.5W Tue morning. Octave will weaken to a tropical depression over near 15.0N 118.5W early Wed. The area of NW swell will continue to spread southward and weaken by Sun. Meanwhile, a new set of large southerly swell will propagate toward the equator during the weekend and into early next week. $$ Ramos