133
AXPZ20 KNHC 242038
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N89W to 10N129W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 96W and
124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over southern Mexico near
19N97W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon trough is supporting
fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak and benign
stationary front extends across the northern Baja California
waters into the waters off Baja California Norte, with little
impact on the winds. High pressure ridging prevails elsewhere W
of the area. A trough of low pressure is across the Gulf of
California. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
ridging and the surface trough is supporting gentle to moderate
winds across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula, where
seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
4-5 ft prevail over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are over the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, the stationary front across the northern Gulf
of California waters to the waters off Baja California Norte will
dissipate tonight. Otherwise, weak surface ridging W of the area
will support gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds W of the
baja California peninsula through the week. Strong to near gale-
force N winds will develop in the Tehuantepec Mon night through
the middle of the week before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds
will once again develop over Tehuantepec the end of the week.
Moderate S swell will move through the area waters from Cabo
Corrientes eastward Mon night through the middle of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downwind the Gulf of
Papagayo, with seas of 6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
5-6 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon
trough, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough.
Cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional
waters tonight, increasing seas to 8 ft between Ecuador, Colombia
and the Galapagos Islands through the middle of the week. The
swell will propagate northward, increasing seas to 7 ft elsewhere
early Mon through the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends across the northern Baja California
waters to near 26N127W with little marine impacts. A second
stationary front is over the far NW waters. Moderate to fresh
winds are E of this stationary front. NW swell behind the front
is producing seas of 8-10 ft over the far NW waters. Weak high
pressure prevails south of the stationary fronts and N of 120W.
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting moderate trades, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N and W of 110W. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

For the forecast, the stationary front across the northern Baja
California waters will dissipate tonight. The other stationary
front across the NW waters will meander W of 130W for the next
few days, while low pressure forms along the front just NW of the
area waters. This will maintain moderate to fresh SW winds and
seas around 8 ft across these NW waters through late Tue. To the
south, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue south
of 20N, with moderate seas through Fri. Cross equatorial S to SW
swell will move north of the equator tonight and raise seas to 7
to 9 ft across the waters S of 18N and E of 125W Mon through
early Wed.

$$
AL