106
AXPZ20 KNHC 200849
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Pacific Ocean near 07N77W and
extends to 09N84W to 06N108W. The ITCZ continues from 06N108W to
beyond 02N140. A second ITCZ has been analyzed from 01S119W to
07S140W. Moderate to strong convection is occurring from 02N to
09N east of 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 10N between 86W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to locally strong
NW winds occurring offshore of southwestern Mexico from Jalisco
through Michoacan as low pressure resides over central Mexico.
Elsewhere, a trough has been analyzed over the Gulf of California
into northwestern Mexico, while ridging dominates the rest of
the waters. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds just
offshore of the Baja peninsula including in the Sebastian
Vizcaino Bay, as well as through the central and southern Gulf of
California, as seen on scatterometer data. Moderate seas of 4 to
6 ft are noted through much of the regional waters, with slight
seas of 1 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will pulse
offshore of southwestern Mexico near Jalisco each night and
morning through at least Tue. Farther north, moderate to locally
fresh NW winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of California
and in the bays offshore of Baja California through tonight.
Otherwise, prevailing high pressure over the eastern Pacific will
support gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas
over the remainder of the waters through the middle of this week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E winds and seas to 7 ft prevail in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure resides over northwestern Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Panama.
Otherwise, south of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally
moderate S winds and moderate seas in S swell prevail. Moderate
to strong convection is occurring through the waters offshore of
western Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, and strong winds and
rough seas are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and locally rough seas
are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue
morning, and occasional moderate to fresh winds are expected in
the region thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
extend through the far offshore waters of El Salvador and
Guatemala early this week. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to
moderate speeds in the Gulf of Panama this morning, decreasing to
light to gentle speeds through midweek. Looking ahead, a long-
period Southern Hemisphere swell will support rough seas in the
waters offshore of Ecuador by late week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Ridging extends through much of the eastern Pacific waters,
extending southward from a 1041 mb high centered near 44N147W.
Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate winds over much
of the open waters, with fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft
occurring from 05N to 20N west of 115W. South of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to E winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft in S swell prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will occur through the
middle of this week from 05N to 20N west of 115W, as ridging
continues to dominate the eastern Pacific. Short-period, wind-
generated E swell will promote rough seas in this region. Farther
north, gentle to moderate N to E winds and moderate seas will
prevail. N swell to 8 ft will approach the northern waters
tonight through midweek before retreating. Looking ahead, a long-
period Southern Hemisphere swell will promote rough seas south
of 05N late this week.

$$
ADAMS