Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
303 AXPZ20 KNHC 090353 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near 22.6N 113.6W at 09/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 32 ft (10.0 m). Numerous moderate convection is observed from 18N to 25N and between 111W and 116W. Priscilla is moving toward the NW and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the north is expected Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become a remnant low by Friday. Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Priscilla NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 16.1N 113.2W at 09/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the SW quadrant. Octave is moving toward the ENE and this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Octave is expected to dissipate by late Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP90): A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in these areas should should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of the week, which could lead to localized flooding. This system has a high chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1006 mb low pres (EP90) near 15N96W to 18N104W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N118W to 11N130W and beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 04N and east of 90W. Similar convection is found from 06N to 10N and west of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla, Tropical Storm Octave, and Low Pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Invest EP90, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Dangerous marine conditions continue to impact the waters offshore Baja California Sur, including the entrance to the Gulf of California, and the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands due to both Priscilla and Octave. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas persist near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with a 1006 mb low pressure area, Invest EP90. Moderate to locally fresh breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, except for gentle breezes and slight seas over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Priscilla is near 22.6N 113.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Priscilla will move to 23.4N 114.4W Thu morning, 24.6N 115.1W Thu evening, weaken to a remnant low near 25.7N 115.2W Fri morning, 26.5N 115.1W Fri evening, 27.2N 114.8W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Octave is near 16.1N 113.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving east- northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Octave will move to 16.9N 111.0W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 16.9N 108.4W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Also, low pressure, Invest EP90, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing winds and seas as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Conditions may finally improve over the offshore waters early next week once all three systems pass or dissipate. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 5-8 ft from a long period southerly swell. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across most of the region for the remainder of this week and into the weekend under a weak pressure gradient. The southerly swell will gradually subside into the upcoming weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla, Tropical Storm Octave, and Low Pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Invest EP90, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Outside of the influence of the three tropical systems, a weak 1012 mb low pressure in the monsoon trough near 12N127W is producing fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Another 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near 24N138W, but no significant weather, winds or seas are associated with this feature. The remainder of the basin, north of the monsoon trough, is dominated by a weak pressure gradient that sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Priscilla is near 22.6N 113.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Priscilla will move to 23.4N 114.4W Thu morning, 24.6N 115.1W Thu evening, weaken to a remnant low near 25.7N 115.2W Fri morning, 26.5N 115.1W Fri evening, 27.2N 114.8W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Octave is near 16.1N 113.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving east- northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Octave will move to 16.9N 111.0W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 16.9N 108.4W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Low pressure, Invest EP90, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing winds and seas as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. High pressure should build across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the wake of the tropical/potential systems during the weekend into early next week. The southerly swells to rough over the southern waters will gradually decay into the upcoming weekend. New northerly, rough swell may propagate into the N-central waters by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Delgado