771
AXPZ20 KNHC 210314
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W, north of 03N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W, north of 05N, moving
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W, from 04N to 17N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below
in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N125W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 03N
to 10N east of 95W, from 08N to 13N between 100W and 120W, and
from 10N to 14N between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered near 32N134W
to Revillagigedo Islands, with a surface trough over the Gulf of
California. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW
breezes and moderate seas off Baja California. Light to gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico.
Gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of
the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate
seas west of the Baja peninsula through early next week. Gentle
to moderate winds will develop in the Gulf of California the end
of the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell
will persist across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
waters north of 05N through the weekend, except for moderate
winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo at night starting Thu.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected south of 05N. Cross-
equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the regional
waters, keeping seas in the moderate range through Fri, except in
the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected.
Another round of large swell will move into the waters off
Ecuador and Colombia by late Fri, and reach the offshore waters
of Central America by Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high
centered near 32N134W. The pressure gradient between this area
of high pressure along with lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate fresh trade winds north of the
monsoon trough to 22N and west of 125W. Seas over these waters
are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate
to fresh winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are south of the monsoon
trough and west of 128W. Gentle to moderate winds, and combined
seas of 5-8 ft in southerly swell, prevail elsewhere south of the
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
end of the week. The freshening winds in the tradewind zone N of
the monsoon trough will increase seas to 8 ft over these waters
by tonight. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen