995
FXUS66 KEKA 152217
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
317 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures cooling to near normal today and slightly below
  normal Thursday before warming above normal once again for
  Friday and into the weekend.

* Breezy afternoon winds today and Thursday across Mendocino,
  Lake and Trinity counties. Local areas of low RH elevate fire
  danger, especially in Lake county.

* Possible thunderstorms across the interior next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low off the Pacific Northwest will
bring cooler inland temperatures, back closer to normal for the
next several days. This will also bring some breezy winds into
the interior. Above normal temperatures are expected to return for
the weekend with another chance for thunderstorms next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper level trough off the Oregon and
Washington coast is expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures
and breezy winds. Highs across the interior are expected to be in
the mid to upper 90s. Some of the areas farthest inland such as
Lake and eastern Trinity county will not see much cooling. This
will bring onshore flow, likely keeping quite a few coastal clouds
around. With the cooler air aloft, the inversion may be slightly
weaker which could allow some clearing in the afternoon at the
coast. This is expected to increase afternoon winds slightly,
especially in Mendocino, Lake, and eastern Trinity counties. See
fire weather section for details. More significant cooling is
expected on Thursday with highs in the 80s closer to the coast and
near 90 farther inland. Stratus is expected to be more persistent
with the onshore flow. Afternoon winds will be breezy once again.

Friday and into the weekend high pressure starts to push it`s way
back to the west as the low becomes an open trough and lifts to
the north. The ensemble clusters indicate there is some
uncertainty on how quickly this will occur. It looks like high
temperatures, at least in Trinity county, will be above normal and
close to 100 in the valleys for the weekend. This may bring some
locally moderate heat risk. It looks like Mendocino and Lake
county will remain cooler and closer to normal with highs in the
90s. Heat risk will remain in the minor level in these southern
areas.

Early next week the models are showing a return of monsoonal
monsoonal moisture. This will bring the potential for
thunderstorms once again or least some mid and high level clouds.
This will need to be monitored as it gets closer. Currently there
are no thunderstorms in the forecast, but this may change. This
will likely also bring some cooler temperatures. MKK


&&

.AVIATION...The low pressure system is lifting ceilings and
helping clear out sky conditions despite moisture being pulled
into the area. Model guidance is forecasting a return of overcast
conditions by the late afternoon. Winds will be gusty out of the
NW for intermittent periods. MVFR/VFR conditions through the late
afternoon and evening are expected as stratus returns and ceilings
hover around 1000 feet or slightly below tonight, with IFR flight
categories at the coastal terminals well through until Thursday
early morning. Gusts at KUKI have come in for short durations and
will likely diminish by 03z, VFR expected otherwise. /EYS


&&

.MARINE...Conditions are expected to remain persistent through
Friday. Northerly winds continue with the strongest winds in the
lee of Cape Mendocino. A few gusts to 30 kt are expected just
south of the Cape. Waves will mainly be wind driven, but there are
a couple small swells. One out of the south to southwest around 2
feet at 14 seconds. The second small swell is expected to start to
build in this morning at around 2 feet at 14 seconds.

The stronger winds pushing farther off the coast has slowed
slightly with the winds remaining fairly steady through Friday
night. Now it`s looking Saturday will be the when the northerly
winds start to push a bit farther offshore. It now looks like it
will take until Sunday for much of the area to drop below 10 kt.
These lighter winds are expected to continue into early next week.
/MKK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Stronger northwest winds are expected in
Mendocino, Lake, and eastern Trinity counties. Afternoon RH is
expected to be low with teens and 20s expected for much of eastern
Lake County and teens in Lake County and Trinity County. These
winds and low RHs will elevate fire danger. The upside is these
onshore winds will bring more moisture and RH will gradually rise.
Winds continue to be breezy Thursday but higher afternoon RHs are
expected with 20s and 30s in Mendocino, 20s in Lake County, and
teens to 20s to eastern Trinity County. Winds ease Friday, but
afternoon RH will also lower back into the teens and 20s. /JB/MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png