912
FXUS66 KEKA 150856
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1256 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Rain is expected to develop early Sunday with snow
levels around 5,000 feet. The heaviest rain is expected in
Mendocino and Lake counties. Monday a few showers are expected as
colder air moves in. Monday night and Tuesday snow is expected
above 1500 to 2500 feet impacting most highways through the
interior. Lighter rain and low elevation snow are expected
Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Moderate to heavy rain expected Sunday, especially in Mendocino
  and Lake counties where localized flooding is possible. Snow
  levels remain over 5000 feet.

* Monday night through Tuesday night heavy wet snow will generate
  dangerous travel conditions, downed trees and possible power
  outages. This is expected to impact mountain passes highways
  199, 299, 36, and 3. This may also impact highway 101.

* Small hail accumulation expected for low elevations along NW
  California Coast with heavy showers, especially on Tuesday.

.DISCUSSION...A frontal boundary is approaching the area this
morning. This is expected to bring rain, snow and gusty winds to
the area today. Snow levels today are expected to be over 5,000
feet. The heaviest rain is expected to be in Mendocino and Lake
counties where 1 to 2 inches is expected in around 18 hours. Local
amounts of up to 3 inches are possible in the mountains. This may
cause some minor flooding of small streams, streets and low lying
areas.

As the first system moves out of the area, Monday is expected to
be fairly dry through the daylight hours. Periods of light rain
are possible, but rainfall amounts are expected to be mainly less
than a quarter of an inch. Snow levels are expected to start
falling through the day, but only drop to around 3,000 to 4,000
feet by late afternoon.

The real cold air is expected to start moving into the are Monday
evening and will likely be in place when the heavier precip
starts in the late evening. The models have slowed down the time
of this precip slightly, however this just allows the cold air to
move in ahead of the precip. Confidence is high that Humboldt and
Del Norte counties will see widespread heavy snow above 2,000 feet
and possibly down lower. Confidence is lower on exactly how low
snow levels will get. The current forecast is showing over a foot
of snow on Hwy 299 at Berry Summit with similar amounts on Hwy 199
at the Collier Tunnel. Snow fall amounts are slightly less on
Oregon Mountain and Buckhorn Summit with less precip that far
inland. This much snow will likely cause significant travel
impacts and may bring down trees and possibly power lines.
Smaller roads such as Mattole Road and Shelter Cove road as well
as numerous county roads farther inland will likely also see snow.
So have added southwestern Humboldt to the winter storm warning.
There is more uncertainty on the impacts to the highways in
Mendocino and Lake counties. For now snow amounts at the lower
elevations look lower, but will leave the winter storm watch in
place to highlight this uncertainty. Elevations below the snow
level, especially along the coast, may see small hail. With
temperatures likely lingering around 40, this may allow small hail
to accumulate on Tuesday. A winter weather advisory may be needed
to highlight this as well.

Showers and low snow levels are expected to continue on Wednesday
and Thursday although at this point amounts look quite a bit
lighter. There will likely be some breaks in the rain and snow
even though the current forecast broad brushes the pops due to
uncertainty on timing. Additional rain and snow are expected on
Friday, although snow levels are expected to start rising. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...As the low pressure system approaches, high level
clouds are being pushed east. Plenty of mixing at ground level
with instability assisting with the deepening of the marine layer.
This will make for a thicker cloud deck and could effect approach
and departure from the terminals. Low level wind shear is
anticipated at KUKI overnight into Sunday with velocity and
directional shear. Most guidance suggests rain to arrive to the
Humboldt and Del Norte coasts Sunday morning, with models showing
this staying offshore until mid morning Sunday. VFR conditions are
likely to remain at the coastal terminals until this rain
arrives. MVFR ceilings are likely once rain arrives.

&&

.MARINE...The large northwest swell continues at 10 ft or so at
the buoys as of 07z. Southerly winds will continue with sustained
winds at 15-20 and widespread gusts of 20 to 30 kts. The southerlies
will begin to ease by the early evening on Sunday, around 01z, but
could remain breezy south of the Cape with gusts of 15 to 25 kts.
Between decaying swells and wind waves, combined seas of 9 to 12
ft are likely Sunday morning. The center of the low pressure will
move through the waters Monday, bringing stronger northerly
winds. Gale force gusts are possible in the outer waters Monday
evening depending on the location of the low. Winds turn westerly
Tuesday and are likely to remain breezy with gusts of 20 to 30
kts. Winds turn northerly and begin to ease by midweek as the low
pressure moves out of the area. However, a northwesterly large,
steep mid period swell of around 16 to 18 ft at 14 seconds will
build in Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep seas elevated into
Thursday.

&&


.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday
     for CAZ102-104-105-106.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Wednesday
     for CAZ107-108.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
     morning for CAZ110-111-114-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for PZZ455-470-
     475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png