894
FXUS66 KEKA 292132
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
232 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Moderate risk for sneaker waves along the Lost Coast and
  Mendocino Coast through this evening.

* Coastal stratus likely to continue to form each night

* Hot temperatures return late week and into the weekend.

* Elevated fire danger returns late in the week and at least into
  next week with increased wind and increasingly hot, dry
  conditions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Near to slightly below normal temperatures forecast
to continue for interior areas into tomorrow, while near to above
normal coastal temperatures are likely to end today. Breezy
afternoon winds elevate fire danger in eastern Trinity, eastern
Mendocino, and Lake counties. Hot interior temperatures return
later this week, further increasing fire weather risk.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough over the Gulf of Alaska will
continue to affect weather patterns over Northwest California
today and tomorrow. Zonal flow continues to aid in reinforcing a
stubborn stratus layer over the North Coast through the afternoon.
Stratus is then expected to deepen and expand over the coast and
down coastal river valleys again overnight tonight. Cooler than
average temperatures will continue today and tomorrow for the
interior as the upper low affects the area. The rest of this week
and into the weekend, northerlies will continue to strengthen
over the ocean restarting upwelling and leading to the usual
cooler near shore ocean temperatures. This will cause cool air
advection into coastal areas which will help trend coastal
temperatures back towards normal. A pronounced shortwave
perturbation will advance over N CA Thursday. Moisture and
instability will be very limited, so only mid to high level clouds
should result.

A Four Corners/Desert Southwest dome of high pressure will then
begin to strengthen Thursday. The 500mb ridge will continue to
strengthen, reaching 597 to up to 600dm by Friday. This will
translate to hot interior temperatures. Probabilities for interior
temperatures over 100 increase going into next week, with high
chances (60 to 80%) for temperatures over 100 by Monday, and
moderate chances (40%) for temperatures over 104 Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week.

Fire weather concerns will become elevated again with the duration
of the building heat along will periods of breezy conditions. See
the Fire Weather section below. /JJW /JLW


&&

.AVIATION...An upper level trough along with a passing weak front
continues to reinforce coastal stratus into the afternoon,
especially along the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts north of Cape
Mendocino. Some clearing and lifting is possible later this
afternoon and early evening for some coastal terminals (more
likely for KACV). But, most coastal terminals of Humboldt and Del
Norte counties will maintain at least a MVFR ceiling throughout
the day. Another deep marine layer is anticipated to form late
this evening and overnight, enveloping the coast and stretching
down river valleys. LIFR/IFR conditions are anticipated for KCEC
and KACV tonight. Gusty northwest winds are possible this
afternoon, gusting from 15 to 20 knots, at most terminals. /JLW


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds have trended higher over all zones. Winds
north of Cape Mendocino look to generally remain below 20 kts
through Friday. The focus of stronger northerlies will remain around
and south of Cape Mendocino. Northerlies of 20-25 kts in these
southern zones, locally with gale conditions up to 30 kts around the
cape, can continue to be expected. Short period northerly seas will
increase over the waters, along with a small long period
southerly swell. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen through
the weekend, bringing increased chances for gale strength
northerlies over much of the waters. /JJW


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon westerly breezes will likely bring
isolated areas of enhanced fire weather danger and perhaps brief
critical conditions locally. Overnight recoveries are expected to be
moderate to good, aside from the higher elevations of Lake and
eastern Trinity County.

Closer to the coast, a deep marine layer brings high RH and perhaps
stratus and/or fog into the river valleys overnight. Afternoon RH
ranges from 60s to 80s near the immediate coast to low 20s in
interior Humboldt, Del Norte, and western Mendocino Counties
Wednesday.

Ridging rebuilds back in starting Thursday, bringing much warmer
high temperatures to the interior. Most valleys are forecast to
reach the high 90s and triple digits, with highest chances for
temperatures over 100 early next week. Afternoon RHs will again be
in the teens and 20s for the eastern interior. Troughing to the
north will likely enhance winds over the weekend and possibly
Monday, increasing the fire weather threat, especially when
coinciding with the building heat and low RH. /JJW


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period southerly swell, with periods up
to 18 seconds, remains from tropical systems in the Eastern
Pacific through this evening, with easing of size and energy
thereafter. This energetic swell will continue to bring a low to
moderate risk of sneaker waves into this evening. With this
sneaker wave event the most hazardous areas are steep, south and
southwest facing beaches along the Lost Coast and Mendocino Coast
through Wednesday.

Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between
waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without
warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and
beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as
logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep
water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits.
Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to
stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently.
Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean! /JJW


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM PDT this evening for
     CAZ104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png