682
FXUS66 KEKA 162146
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
246 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A long period swell will bring a risk for
sneaker waves late Friday through Saturday. Temperatures trend
warmer through Saturday. A weak front will bring a low end chance
for light precipitation Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures arrive
to start next week while larger surf moves in.



&&

.DISCUSSION...Early afternoon satellite shows clear skies now
that the interior fog has faded. The fog development held up the
overnight lows in the valleys. Surface levels will dry out some
more today, so fog coverage will be less tonight. A weak front
will bring some thin mid to high levels clouds this afternoon
through Friday morning. These clouds may have limited insulating
effects and some patchy frost may develop in localized cooler
valleys.

Daytime temperatures will continue to trend to above normal levels
through Saturday. The warmer valleys will reach the low to mid 80s
by Saturday. See the Beach Hazards section below for more
information on the sneaker wave threat if you have beach plans.
Cooler temperatures arrive Sunday with the passage of a weak cold
front. From what looked like a good chance for a wetting rainfall,
the front due Sunday looks significantly weaker on today`s model
runs. Ensemble guidance shows very low chances (25-35%) for a
wetting rainfall (0.1 inch or higher) for areas in far North
Humboldt through Del Norte.

The cooler airmass behind the front will bring some additional
chances for some inland frost early next week. Quiet and benign
meteorological conditions will generally persist over the next 7
days. Ensemble and deterministic guidance is beginning to
persistently present a more active pattern to begin around the end
of next week. The Climate Prediction Center outlines Northern
California for a moderate to high chance (60-80%) for above
normal precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook. JJW


&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...Mostly VFR conditions today at the coastal
terminals with northerly winds building and skies clearing to at
least FEW or Scattered groups. Cloud cover has dissipated as of 20z
with most of the dense cover well offshore and 20-30 miles off of
Mendocino`s coast. Northerly winds peak around 00z this evening,
more noticeably at KCEC with its exposure to the Pacific (around 10-
11kts gusting to 15-17kts). KACV has more cover and less exposure
and so northerlies will increase to a lesser extent, 8-10kts
sustained with gusts 10-13kts. Ceilings will linger around 11-17,000
feet tonight at KCEC and KACV. NBM probabilities hint at A 38%
probability of ceilings less than 6500 feet for the coastal
terminals Friday morning into the afternoon. Saturday early morning,
just after midnight, there is a signal for IFR low ceilings at KACV
and KCEC. This will occur again early Sunday morning and likely
result in light rain for KCEC and less for KACV. KUKI will have
prevailing VFR conditions and no precipitation is expected Sunday as
most of the rain will be north of the 40 latitude. /EYS


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds are expected to push back closer to the
coast tonight into Thursday. Winds are expected to accelerate to
strong to near gale force gust conditions tonight and persist
through Friday, with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino,
where isolated gale force gust are likely Friday afternoon.

Wind waves are expected to build to 6-8 feet this evening. This is
expected to peak on Friday around 8-11 feet at 7-9 seconds. A long
period northwest swell arrive at 2-5 feet at 18-20 seconds Friday
evening , and then peak to 8-10 feet at 16 seconds Saturday
afternoon.

Saturday night into Sunday morning there may be some brief southerly
winds as a cold front swings through. The strength and timing remain
uncertain, but most models keep the winds below 20 kt. Northerly
winds are expected to quickly return Sunday afternoon or overnight.
These are expected to increase to near gales or gales at some point
on Monday. /ZVS /MKK


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period west northwest swell will begin to
build in Friday afternoon with 20 second period forerunners. This
swell energy will bring a moderate risk of sneaker waves,
especially Saturday morning with the incoming tide and through
Saturday afternoon when the swell continues building to 8 to 10
feet at 16 seconds. Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with many
minutes between waves. Pay attention and stay above the high water
line and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves
have surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on
the ocean! A potentially larger swell is then forecast to move in
late Sunday through Monday. JJW



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from Friday evening through
     Saturday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for PZZ450-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png