944
FXUS66 KEKA 242112
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
212 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather will slightly ease Sunday as
building interior moisture begins to create a chance of dry
thunderstorms over interior mountains through early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will generally continue to
persist over the area Sunday, but midlevel moisture and high
clouds streaming over the area will provide just enough coverage
to slightly cool interior conditions into the upper 90s. Very
shallow marine influence will continue to hang along the coast
with highs in the 60s.

Monsoon moisture will continue to stream up the Sacramento Valley
today with a cutoff low stalling of the Central California COast
helping to curve moisture west over the coastal mountains. The vast
majority (80% chance) of convective models show thunderstorms
staying just north and east of the area today over the Klamath
Mountains. Moisture will gradually pull further south this week.
With a strong signal (70% chance) of scattered thunderstorms over at
least Trinity County by Monday afternoon. Storms will likely be
mostly dry with gusty outflow winds up to around 50 mph and threat
for new fires. Within storm cores, however, up to around 0.4 inches
of rain could be possible, though precipitable water is generally
meager. Models suggest thunderstorm coverage could further expand
further south on Tuesday into Mendocino and Lake Counties, thought
this potential remains uncertain (30% chance overall).

Monsoon moisture will gradually push back out of the areas after
Wednesday with a series of troughs most likely to return across the
Pacific Northwest. Such a pattern will promote a return to much
cooler and more moist weather with marine influence pulling inland,
though the chance for any rainfall currently appears moderate with
about a 20% chance of wetting rain near shore around September 1st.
/JHW /EYS


&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing LIFR conditions at the coastal terminals
are improving as of 21z, low ceilings have slightly lifted above
this morning`s 200 foot ceiling to IFR conditions (~500 feet or
better). Persistent stratus retreating at the coastal terminals
with broken to scattered groups giving improvements to MVFR for
short periods in the early evening. This should last until about
03z, when overcast skies return. Monsoonal moisture has meandered
into the area and mid level moisture along with cloud cover will
aid in the return of LIFR flight conditions tonight.

For inland areas: VFR conditions with mid to high level clouds is
expected to persist across the interior areas through the period,
including in KUKI. Although, some vsby in haze is possible to
return to KUKI tonight due to the active wildfire in Napa County.
MVFR conditions with skies obscuration and vsby in HZ/FU are
likely for much of Lake County through Sunday evening, before the
wind shift to SW and push the smoke to NE. /EYS

&&

.MARINE...A small southwest swell around 15 seconds is forecast to
persist through Monday morning. Northerlies increase through the
first part of the week, with moderate to fresh breezes across the
outer waters. Gusts of up to 20-25 kts are possible by Monday with
steep seas rebuilding up to 8-10 ft. Starting Thursday there will be
period of quieter winds and waves in all waters except the southern
outer waters, due to an approaching low that weakens the
northerlies. ZVS/TRN


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry weather will very slightly ease today,
though temperatures will remain in the upper 90s with RH in the mid
teens. That said, lagging fuels will continue to respond to very dry
weather form the past couple of days, helping to maintain enhanced
fire weather conditions.

Upper level monsoon moisture has already begun to move up the
Sacramento Valley as evidence by abundant high and midlevel clouds
across the area. That said, any storms that do form today would most
likely be north and east of the Trinity Alps. Storm coverage will
likely increase and move south Monday and Tuesday afternoon as
moisture and pulled over the coastal mountains. Lightning on dry
fuels will bring a high risk of new fire starts even if wetting rain
falls within storm cores. Gusty outflow wind form storms may also
encourage increased fire spread and so we have escalated the
previous Fire Weather Watch to a Fire Weather Warning for zone
283. It is highly likely that an additional non routine
Watch/Warning will be hoisted for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Stay alert and up to date with area fire weather conditions.
www.weather.gov/eka/
/JHW /EYS




&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ283.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png