581
FXUS66 KEKA 072018
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
118 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures inland this weekend. A slight chance
of thunderstorms over the Klamath Mountains, Trinity Co. and the
Yolla Bollas on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Windy
afternoons return to NW California by the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A pronounced upper level ridge continues to broaden
between the 110 and 130 Longitudes. A pre-cursor to the seasonal
heat dome, we also see the infamous 588 isobar in the 500mb
heights, spreading over the PACNW which is historically
associated with high temperatures. The previously mentioned upper
level ridge will contribute to much warmer temperatures across the
region this weekend, especially within interior valleys while
marine stratus keeps the coast cooler. Not much change in the
preceding forecast in terms of MaxT- NBM shows 50 to 75%
probabilities for daytime high temperatures exceeding 95 degrees,
especially in areas of interior Trinity and Mendocino counties
including Hayfork, Covelo, Weaverville and Willow Creek. Higher
likelihood of reaching 100 degrees on Sunday for these areas while
the rest of the interior still stands quite warm in the upper
80`s and low 90s. Those looking to cool off should exercise
extreme caution if spending time in and around rivers, as waters
are still cold and very dangerous.

Convective parameters for storms increase on Sunday and more so
on Monday. It will still be really dry in the lower atmosphere and
with 100F degree heat bubbling up in afternoon a few updrafts
could break through the mid level stable layer. Once convection
begins the storms may spread NW into Del Norte County Sunday night
into Monday morning. Hi-res CAMs are beginning to show increased
convective activity developing Sunday afternoon. Forecast
confidence remains low for this event due to the minimal forcing
for the potential storms.

Mid level cyclonic circulation is forecast to slowly meander across
the area early to mid next week. Moisture does not look to be in
abundant supply. Main impacts appear to be CG strikes and gusty
outflow winds given inverted-V profiles indicated by the GFS model.
NBM 12hr thunderstorm probabilities are sitting around 10-20% for
this weekend into early next week.

The potential for more storms on Tue. diminishes, but there may
still be enough moisture to tap into in far eastern Trinity county.
Brief ridging on Tue may be followed by a deeper trough Wed and Thu
next week. This trough looks quite dry and main impacts appear to be
a return of stronger gusty winds and cooler temperatures.



&&

.AVIATION...Stratus continues along the coast early this afternoon,
but has started to move offshore with daytime heating. Some
infrequent impacts of IFR ceilings are possible through the
afternoon at ACV and CEC. Widespread stratus returns this evening
and overnight, with LIFR ceilings and visibilities likely again for
the coastal terminals. UKI is forecast to remain VFR as the marine
layer remains shallow. Winds are forecast to remain light (less than
10 kts) at all terminals. JB


&&

.MARINE...Moderate northerly breezes persist past 50-60 nm, but
otherwise winds are light. Seas remain steep in the outer waters,
but these gradually ease as winds remain light this weekend. Sunday
both winds and seas are forecast to be mild, though stratus will
likely create foggy conditions in the morning and evening. Northerly
winds gradually pick up again next week, with winds of 20-25 kts
possible by Tuesday, and gales possible by Wednesday. JB



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png