049
FXUS66 KEKA 302223
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
323 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy afternoon winds will elevate fire weather concerns for
  Trinity county Monday afternoon.

* Warm temperatures to continue Monday before much cooler
  temperatures arrive in the area.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* An early season reason may bring widespread rain to the area
  Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching upper low will deepen the marine layer
Monday. A few showers are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night as
this low moves overheard. An early season storm is expected to
bring a widespread wetting rain Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday, although uncertainty remains on how far south it will
make it.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ridging over the area is bringing warm temperatures
to the area today and this will likely be the warmest day for a
while in most areas. Tonight and Monday an approaching trough is
expected to deepen the marine layer and bring some cooler
temperatures to much of the area. This is also expected to bring
some increased winds in the afternoon. These will be west to
southwest and this will help to increase afternoon RH. For more
details see fire weather section.

Tuesday is expected to see moisture aloft increasing as the trough
cuts off and moves towards the coast. A shortwave rotating around
the low may provide enough lift with some instability aloft to
produce a thunderstorm or two. These may be fairly dry initially
with PWATS around 0.6 or 0.7 inches. Currently the models are
showing some convective precip Tuesday evening , but the profiles
don`t look very favorable for thunderstorms. So this will need to
be monitored. At this coast this may bring some light rain or
drizzle. Later Tuesday night some light rain is possible in the
interior areas as well.

Wednesday it generally looks like there may be a break between
this trough and the next on. Wednesday evening and overnight into
Thursday the system is expected to bring a wetting rain to much of
 the area. The models are still struggling with how far south this
rain will make it. The NBM is showing over a 60 percent chance of
a wetting rain for most areas north of Willits by Thursday
afternoon. Most of Humboldt county is showing a 60 percent chance
of over a half inch of rain. Farther north in Del Norte county
there is a 70 percent chance of over an inch of rain. Some of the
models are still showing drier solutions so this will need to be
monitored as it gets closer. Late in the week and over the weekend
another system moves by to the north, but at this point it looks
like any significant precip will remain north of the area. MKK



&&

.AVIATION...Stratus is expected to return this evening or tonight
and become fairly widespread towards morning. With the approaching
trough we are not expected a lot of low fog, but more just IFR or
LIFR CIGs. Monday the stratus may linger at the coast through much
of the day, although the CIGS will likely lift to IFR or MVFR.
Areas farther inland, including UKI, are expected to remain clear
through Monday. MKK

&&

.MARINE...Strong to near gale force winds continue across the
waters this afternoon. These are expected to start diminishing
tonight near the coast and more broadly on Monday. These are
expected to become southerly near the coast. Wind driven waves are
around 7 to 10 feet and are expected to diminish tonight and
Monday along with the winds. A southerly swell of 2 to 3 feet at
17 seconds continues as well. This will slowly diminish over the
next several days.

Tuesday an early season weather system starts to approach the area
switching winds across the area to southerly. These southerly
winds are expected to slowly increase through Wednesday afternoon.
Current models showing them peaking around 20 to 25 kt in the
northern waters. Some models are showing these southerly winds
reach 30 kt Wednesday afternoon. These southerly winds are
expected to continue through the week, although for now it looks
like they will remain under 15 kt or so. Next weekend northerly
winds may return. MKK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot weather and low RH continue today. Monday an
approaching upper level low will enhance and deepen the marine
layer. This will cool temperatures slightly across the area with
more cooling in the near coastal areas. Tuesday additional cooling
is expected. Low level RH is expected to be much higher, only
dropping to around 35 to 50 percent in the afternoon. Late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night the upper low moves overhead bringing
the potential thunderstorms. There is not much instability so this
may end up just being a few light showers or even just some virga.
There are some dynamics with the low which could help make use of
the instability at higher levels. Still the threat for
thunderstorms looks fairly minimal.

Wednesday afternoon or evening there is the potential for some
widespread wetting rain. At this point there is still quite a bit
of uncertainty on how far south it will make it. Probabilities
drop off quickly in southern and eastern Lake county. Rainfall
amounts over an inch are possible in Del Norte county. Some of the
models are are still showing a drier solution with precip only
making it into northern Humboldt and northern Trinity counties.
MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png