697
FXUS66 KEKA 081321 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
521 AM PST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to clear skies and bring
chilly overnight temperatures. Light rain is possible Saturday in
Humboldt and Del Norte. A larger system arrives Sunday night and
Monday, bringing widespread rain and gusty southerly wind.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Ridging has brought mostly clear skies, light winds,
and another chilly night. Many interior valleys are forecast (or
already observing) temperatures in the 30s this morning. Stratus
is being observed on satellite offshore early this morning, but
has yet to make a push toward shore. High clouds will increase
later today as a weak system approaches the area. This could limit
overnight cooling slightly, but regardless another chilly night
of mid to high 30s is forecast for much of the interior. This
system saturday will bring a slight chance of a few sprinkles,
primarily to Del Norte and Humboldt Counties.

A stronger system arrives Sunday night into Monday, bringing more
widespread rain across the area and gusty southerly winds. NBM is
showing an 80-90% chance for 1 inch of rain to Humboldt and Del
Norte counties, and a 40-60% chance for much of Mendocino, Lake,
and Trinity counties. The higher elevations in Del Norte and the
King Range could see up to 2-3 inches of rain. Southerly winds
are forecast to be particularly high on exposed ridges and
coastal headlands of Del Norte and Humboldt, where NBM
probabilities of a peak gust greater than 50 mph are around
60-80%. Elsewhere, peak gusts of 20-30 mph are possible. Another
wave of rain and wind is possible midweek. JB

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure has started to move off to the east this
morning, but skies remain clear across the area. An area of stratus
has developed off the coast, but remains at least 5 to 10 miles
offshore. For inland areas VFR conditions will continue through
tonight, although in the afternoon some high clouds may move in.
Winds will generally remain light through the day across the area.
The main question in the forecast is when the stratus will move onto
the coast. The models generally keep it offshore through 18-20Z.
After that a weak sea breeze will likely develop and it could move
onto the immediate coast impacting KCEC and/or KACV. This evening or
tonight it is more likely to move onshore, but even this isn`t a
high probability. The HREF peaks around a 50 percent probability of
a ceiling below 1000 feet. MKK

&&

.MARINE...An approaching frontal boundary is bringing light
south to southeast winds to the area this morning. These are
expected to remain light through the day. Late this afternoon a new
swell is expected to build in, initially this will be 3 feet at 16
seconds combining with existing swell of 6 feet at 13 seconds. These
will combine and be around 8 feet at 15 seconds Saturday morning.
Winds are expected to increase on Saturday as the frontal boundary
nears the area. This is expected to finally move past the area
Saturday evening bringing 15 to 20 kt southerly winds. Late Saturday
night and early Sunday is expected to see a brief lull in the winds
between systems.

Sunday afternoon southerly start to increase again ahead of the next
front. These are expected to peak Sunday night into Monday morning
with strong to near gale force winds. These will be the strongest in
the waters north of Cape Mendocino. The NBM is showing a 15%
probability of gale force winds north of Cape Mendocino.

Monday night into Tuesday morning the models are showing a large
swell moving into the waters peaking around 18 to 20 feet at 16
seconds. This swell is generated by a strong low currently near the
Aleutians. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are in good agreement on this
low deepening to around 965MB and moving into the Gulf of Alaska
over the next several days. The ECMWF and GFS wave models as well as
the NBM wave heights are all in good agreement on this 18 to 20 feet
wave by early Tuesday morning. Still a small shift in the track of
the low could result in a big difference in wave height. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for CAZ104>106-
     112-113-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png