026
FXUS66 KEKA 040624
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1124 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty northerly winds will continue to diminish each
day through the week, but remain robust with steep elevated seas
over the coastal waters. Hot and dry weather will continue each
day this week as a ridge remains parked offshore Northwest
California. Hotter weather is expected this weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

- Strong gusty northerly winds at the coast forecast to diminish
  after Wednesday and then continue to ease over the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures expected to continue in the interior
  through the week.

- Moderate HeatRisk increasing this weekend with hotter afternoon
  temperatures in the interior.

- 10% chance for thunderstorms Klamath Mountains and Yolla Bolly
  Wilderness area Sunday (6/8) through Tuesday (6/9).


&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong pressure gradient continues to gradually
diminish along the North Coast. High pressure out in the eastern
Pacific continues to push against a low pressure system ejecting
further south of Northwest California. Northerly winds over the
region will continue to diminish along the North Coast through the
end of the week. The highest gusts will linger over higher
elevations and particularly at the King Range and the Klamath
Mountains of Del Norte County.

Warm and dry conditions will endure over Northwest California
throughout the week as the ridge persists over the eastern
Pacific. Slightly warmer than average high temperatures can be
expected through the week, especially for the interior. More
average to slightly above average high temperatures are forecast
for the coast this week, with the possibility of marine stratus
over typical coastal areas each night. There is a potential for a
moderate HeatRisk over various interior areas, but especially for
Trinity and Lake counties. Sunday June 8th is expected to be the
warmest day of this next moderate heat wave. Long range ensembles
show generally high confidence in warm, dry conditions continuing
through early June.

Moderate HeatRisk is forecast to expand in coverage over the
weekend as the southern edge of a massive 500mb height anomaly
builds over Oregon and Washington. The robust NE flow is forecast
to abate over the weekend and marine air and stratus will most
likely mitigate the HeatRisk for western portions of Mendocino,
Humboldt, and Del Norte Counties.

Another potential high impact going into the weekend into early next
week will be a low chance (10%) for diurnally triggered and terrain
forced thunderstorms (lightning activity) over the Klamath Mountains
and Yolla Bolly`s. A semi-closed low aloft (500mb) is forecast to
bring an increase in mid level humidity and E-SE mid level flow
Sat-Sun. As one might expect for this time of year, deterministic
model soundings (GFS in particular) show inverted-V profiles on
Sunday. We shall see how the models trend over the next day or
two. Flow pattern is chaotic and convectively noisy with low
predictability. NBM thunderstorm probabilities do increase over the
weekend into early next week and for now will message these low
probabilities in the fire weather planning forecast as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR conditions continue across much of
the area this morning. The exception is the Mendocino coast and even
this appears to be diminishing. This afternoon the HREF is showing
some stratus developing in the Eel River Delta and just off the
coast of KACV. There is a lot of uncertainty if or when this will
come in. Chances are higher that it will come in later in the
evening and closer to sunset. Offshore flow remains strong in Del
Norte county so expect KCEC will remain clear. Winds are diminishing
at the surface, but remain stronger above the surface. So the low
level wind shear looks on track. This looks like it includes around
30 degrees of directional shear. Winds will continue to be breezy
this afternoon, but lighter than yesterday. MKK


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds continue across the waters this morning.
The light southerly winds south of Shelter Cove have turned more
northerly and are expected to increase early this morning. The small
craft advisory starting this morning looks on track. Farther north
the large steep seas may remain just a bit farther offshore, but
confidence is low on this. Seas remain mainly wind driven and around
12 to 17 feet, except closer near the coasts. Late tonight and
Thursday an approaching weather system is expected to start to
weaken the winds. Southerly winds are expected once again south of
Shelter Cove. Thursday night into Friday the stronger northerly
winds continue to push farther off the coast and the southerly wind
reversal near the coast is expected to reach Pt St George. Friday
the gales are expected to be confined to the northwest portion of
Zone 470.

For the weekend winds are expected to drop to around 10 to 15 kt.
There is still some uncertainty on how quickly they will diminish
Saturday morning. Sunday night into Monday winds are expected to
start increasing once again. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png