780
FXUS66 KEKA 110721
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1221 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to warm and Monday is
expected to be the hottest day. Clouds are expected to scatter out
at the coast this afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures and
more marine clouds are expected Tuesday. There is the possibility
of some rain, drizzle, and inland thunderstorms on Wednesday. Near
or slightly above normal temperatures are expected late in the
week and into the weekend. Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 25
to 30 mph are possible.

&&

KEY MESSAGES:
-High interior temperatures will peak today with moderate
 HeatRisk in Mendocino and Lake Counties.

-Cooler temperatures, coastal drizzle and a slight chance for
 inland thunderstorms Wednesday.

-Breezy winds possible this weekend.

.DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave moved through the area Sunday
afternoon. This increased the winds helped to clear out the
coastal areas. This should help clear out the coastal clouds again
on Monday. Most areas are expected to see 3 to 5 degrees of
warming over Sunday. Even more warming is possible in the near
coastal areas such as Gasquet, Garberville, and Legget, and Ukiah.
These locations could see as much as 10 degrees of warming. These
locations also have the potential for a forecast bust if the
marine layer is more persistent than expected.

Tuesday a weakening upper level low is approaching the area. This
will start a cooling trend and will likely increase the marine
layer. The near coastal areas will likely see the most cooling.
Winds will continue to diminish as well. Tuesday night into
Wednesday the models are coming into better agreement on a weak
frontal boundary moving through the area ahead of the upper low,
however there is still wide range of potential rainfall amounts.
The current NBM and forecast is less than a tenth of an inch of
rain. The individual models continue to show a wide range of
solutions. Some of the models show upwards of a half inch in many
areas, while some of the models show no rain at all. The future
forecasts may need to increase the rainfall amounts. Wednesday
afternoon there is the potential for a few thunderstorms.
Probabilities for thunder have decreased slightly and this may be
due to more model solutions with widespread cloud cover keeping
it cooler and less unstable. Current inland highs Wednesday are
expected to be in the 60s to low 70s. Inland areas may still see
thunder, but it is now looking less likely.

Late in the week the flow generally becomes more zonal keeping
temperatures near seasonal normals with a marine layer in place.
Thursday temperatures start to gradually rebound into the upper
70s to around 80. Friday and into the weekend there is increasing
uncertainty on the timing of some weak systems moving by to the
north. But it looks like temperatures will gradually warming into
the low to mid 80s. Breezy northwest winds are expected each
afternoon. The strongest winds look to be around 25 to 30 mph over
the weekend. There is higher than normal uncertainty on this
weather pattern. With the fairly fast zonal flow to the north of
us, there will be some weak shortwaves moving through this flow.
These may bring fluctuations in the temperatures and wind speeds.
At this point very few solutions are showing rain. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...The marine layer mixed out Sunday afternoon at the
coast, but has come back this morning in Humboldt and Del Norte
counties. The current forecast is for this marine stratus to clear
out fairly quickly in the morning. There is still some
uncertainty on this with quite a bit of stratus along the coast
and up the river valleys of Humboldt county. This even stratus is
expected to return fairly quickly to much of the coast bringing
IFR conditions. MKK

&&

.MARINE...The northerly winds are expected to start diminishing
and pushing off the coast through the day Monday. The steep wind
driven waves will gradually diminish as well. A northwest swell
around 3 to 5 feet at 12 seconds is combining with these wind
driven waves.

These winds continue to diminish on Tuesday to be around 5 to 15
kt. The northwest swell continues to be around 5 feet Tuesday and
is expected to continue Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday and
Wednesday night high pressure starts to build back into the area
and northerly winds will slowly pick up again. The winds are
expected to gradually increase into the weekend. Confidence
remains lower than normal with increased uncertainty on the large
scale pattern. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png