473
FXUS66 KEKA 062242
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
Issued by National Weather Service Medford OR
342 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Calm and warmer weather will gradually build through
the week with a strengthening marine layer forming along shore. A
late season rain system is expected this weekend into early next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak, broad ridge will generally persist over the
area through the week. Strengthening high pressure over the next
few days will allow for high temperatures to generally increase
through the week. Interior highs will generally approach the mid
to upper 80s by late in the week with generally dry and calm
conditions. Very sunny weather along the coast now will generally
give way to increasing marine influence as a marine inversion
gradually forms through the week. This pattern will promote a
regular but generally weak diurnal marine stratus layer.

There is high model confidence that a well defined and deep trough
will begin to dip across the area this weekend into early next
week. This trough will bring at least one more taste of winter
with gusty south wind along shore and widespread wetting rain.
Current runs of the GFS indicate a low level coastal jet with
speeds up to 60 mph. At surface NBM currently suggests most likely
peak gusts of up to 50 mph on high ridges Sunday into next
Monday. Similarly, NBM shows most likely rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5
inches at higher elevations of Humboldt and Del Norte with lighter
wetting rain further south. While the occurrence of a trough has
high confidence there is some model variance. About 25% of models
show a weaker but earlier trough with it sweeping down over the
weekend. About 10% show a much deeper trough with greater
rainfall potential. Even the highest end scenarios imply generally
moderate impacts. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the daylight hours
today. There is a high (+70% probability) signal of low clouds
returning the the coastal areas in and around Northern Humboldt
and Del Norte tonight after sunset. Cloud bases are forecasted to
reach IFR, and possibly LIFR status by early tomorrow morning.
Clouds are forecasted to leave the terminal spaces by late
morning tomorrow. KUKI is forecasted to remain VFR through the
TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...Gusty northerly winds have diminished below gale
criteria as the pressure gradient continues to gradually weaken this
morning. However, small craft conditions are still occurring for
all coastal waters at least until late this evening.

An upper level trough will move away from our area towards inland
western CONUS allowing ridging to fill over the Pac NW this week.
The ridging will allow a thermal trough pattern at the surface
keeping winds elevated, yet below gale force, through the week.
Wind waves will create a sea state that can be hazardous for small
crafts through midweek. Large seas are expected to return late in
the weekend to early next work week.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455-
     470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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