Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
983
FGUS73 KEAX 132129
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-140000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...2025 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.
...Below normal flood potential through mid-May along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border through Boonville...
...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...
Outlook:
Through mid-May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 15 to 45 percent
below normal.
Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from
the Iowa border through Rulo, Nebraska range from 40 to 45 percent.
From St. Joseph downstream to Atchison, Kansas, the probability of
reaching flood stage ranges between 10 and 15 percent. The stretch
of the river from Parkville, Missouri through Kansas City has a 5 to
10 percent chance of minor flooding through mid-May. Further
downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show probabilities of
reaching flood stage ranging from 45 to 55 percent.
Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Tarkio, Middle Platte, Crooked, Blackwater, Petite Saline, Grand
from Chillicothe to Sumner, and Big. All of these basins frequently
experience moderate flooding each spring.
Spring flooding is not expected to be caused, or enhanced by melting
snow. Flooding which does develop will be driven by heavy rain
producing thunderstorms which typically occur during the spring
months.
Recent Conditions:
The majority of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received below
normal precipitation the past 30 days. Conditions were quite dry
from east-central Kansas northeastward into central Missouri
Percent of normal precipitation values were less than 70 percent of
normal along the Kansas-Missouri border dropping to less than 25
percent of normal across much of central Missouri. Precipitation
amounts were under a half inch across the driest areas. Wetter
conditions were observed across far northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri. Above normal precipitation affected this region with
percent of normal values exceeding 150 percent. Precipitation
amounts approached an inch and a half across this region.
During the past 90 days, near to slightly above normal precipitation
occurred across far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where in
excess of four inches was observed. Below normal precipitation was
common along and southeast of a Kansas City to Kirksville line.
Within this region, precipitation percent of normal values ranged
from roughly 60 to 80 percent. The driest locations received between
two and three inches of liquid precipitation.
30-day mean temperature values ranged from the middle 20s to lower
30s. These values were normal to slightly below normal. For the past
90-Day period, mean temperatures also ranged from the middle 20s to
lower 30s which was near normal.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 50 percent of the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least
abnormally dry conditions with 2 percent of the HSA affected by
moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 80
percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions with roughly 65 percent reporting at least moderate
drought. In addition, at least 32 percent is experiencing severe
drought conditions, and 7 percent observing extreme drought.
Between one and three tenths of snow water equivalent is currently
in place across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA. Snow water
equivalent across the Central and Northern Plains is generally less
than a half inch which is below normal. Mountain snowpack across the
Upper Missouri Basin is slightly below normal.
7-Day streamflow values across the local region are generally near
normal. However, parts of the Blackwater and Little Chariton basins
show below normal streamflow conditions.
Future Conditions:
7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to range from a
quarter to half inch across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.
The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favored
for below normal temperatures. In addition, below normal
precipitation amounts are anticipated.
Looking at the outlook period through April. There is no clear
signal regarding temperature for the local area. Above normal
temperatures are slightly favored across far southern and southeast
Missouri. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across much
of Missouri with increasing probabilities further east across the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, February 27th.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 26 28 21 24 <5 <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 84 84 65 64 6 6
Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 47 51 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 10 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 16 64 9 36 5 11
Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 14 56 6 18 <5 13
Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 11 40 6 18 <5 9
Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 7 30 6 15 <5 8
Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 6 14 5 12 <5 <5
Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 46 70 7 20 5 10
Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 50 70 6 15 <5 11
Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 53 75 6 16 5 12
Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 54 67 41 62 6 20
Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 55 72 6 12 <5 5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 52 74 51 70 29 48
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:102 River
Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 10 34 5 11 <5 <5
Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 19 44 18 44 <5 5
:Platte River
Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 82 79 52 56 5 5
:Little Platte River
Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 65 63 40 52 13 25
Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 70 73 30 38 10 20
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 16 20 7 7 <5 <5
Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 14 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 28 28 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked River
Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 78 72 70 70 <5 <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 63 67 28 55 <5 17
:Blackwater River
Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 91 89 83 82 23 26
Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 94 96 66 64 8 8
:Lamine River
Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 65 68 48 53 <5 7
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 78 76 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 76 78 73 63 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 26 42 10 10 <5 <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 56 50 37 42 26 30
Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 50 52 10 18 <5 5
Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 69 67 51 51 25 31
Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 88 84 79 80 6 5
Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 64 73 11 23 5 6
:Chariton River
Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 33 34 18 21 10 10
Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 70 70 25 28 9 9
:South Grand River
Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 58 59 36 37 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 95 >98 81 73 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 38 45 <5 <5 <5 <5
La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 52 51 33 36 <5 <5
Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 37 40 32 37 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 8.5 10.7 14.7 21.5 27.1 29.0 29.7
:Stranger Creek
Easton 13.8 15.4 17.7 19.6 20.8 21.7 23.7
Tonganoxie 10.9 13.7 17.9 21.7 25.0 26.1 27.0
:Kansas River
De Soto 8.8 9.5 11.0 13.7 19.0 21.7 25.7
Turner Bridge KCK 8.7 11.3 14.5 18.4 26.7 32.1 39.9
23rd Street KCK 13.9 15.7 17.9 20.8 28.0 33.0 40.9
:Missouri River
St Joseph 5.3 6.9 8.8 12.6 15.1 20.4 25.9
Atchison 7.2 9.0 11.9 16.6 19.2 23.8 28.8
Leavenworth 2.2 3.8 6.6 10.9 14.5 20.3 26.6
Parkville 8.8 9.7 12.9 16.2 19.4 22.7 29.5
Kansas City 11.3 14.3 15.8 18.6 24.1 28.8 36.7
Napoleon 8.6 11.3 13.1 15.7 20.3 23.9 29.6
Waverly 12.7 14.9 16.8 20.0 23.6 26.8 29.8
Miami 10.1 12.1 15.1 19.2 23.4 26.4 29.1
Glasgow 17.5 18.6 21.0 26.2 29.1 30.2 36.3
Boonville 13.6 15.8 17.8 23.2 25.9 27.6 31.3
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 8.6 10.6 12.7 18.5 25.4 26.6 28.8
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 5.6 7.0 8.6 9.9 12.3 14.0 23.3
:102 River
Maryville 10.3 11.1 12.6 14.3 15.9 18.1 22.8
Rosendale 9.6 10.3 13.1 15.9 17.6 20.3 22.1
:Platte River
Agency 15.1 17.5 20.6 25.2 26.7 28.0 29.7
:Little Platte River
Smithville 14.2 14.3 14.8 16.3 18.6 20.6 23.4
:Platte River
Sharps Station 15.0 20.8 22.6 28.4 31.6 33.5 35.0
Platte City 12.3 17.6 18.9 22.9 25.7 29.2 31.2
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 27.0 27.7 28.4 30.9 33.8 37.5 39.3
Bannister Road Ka 9.0 11.5 13.9 18.9 22.7 29.6 34.8
71 Highway Kansas 8.3 11.8 14.9 19.1 22.5 29.2 33.2
63rd Street Kansa 11.6 13.6 15.3 18.9 21.0 26.3 28.7
Colorado Avenue K 11.0 13.1 14.7 17.9 19.5 24.6 27.9
Stadium Drive Kan 10.3 12.9 15.2 19.0 21.3 28.9 30.4
17th Street Kansa 14.4 17.0 18.6 21.7 24.3 30.9 32.0
12th Street Kansa 10.3 12.1 13.8 16.4 18.7 26.2 27.3
:Little Blue River
Lake City 6.6 7.8 11.0 16.2 18.3 21.2 24.1
:Crooked River
Richmond 14.9 17.3 20.4 22.4 25.0 26.3 27.1
:Thompson River
Trenton 15.3 16.0 19.7 22.6 27.1 31.0 32.3
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 7.5 10.9 13.0 27.2 32.5 34.8 42.7
Gallatin 8.8 11.9 16.8 26.0 31.6 33.0 37.4
Chillicothe 10.9 14.9 19.5 28.2 35.0 39.4 40.6
Sumner 17.8 25.0 29.4 34.0 35.7 38.2 40.5
Brunswick 12.2 14.2 16.0 21.7 23.9 27.2 34.0
:Chariton River
Novinger 5.5 10.6 12.8 16.5 20.7 26.1 27.8
Prairie Hill 5.8 13.1 14.7 16.8 19.0 20.3 23.3
:South Grand River
Urich 15.5 17.8 21.0 24.3 26.7 28.7 29.3
:Big Creek
Blairstown 19.3 22.7 23.3 24.4 25.8 26.6 27.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 16.8 20.7 22.3 25.4 31.9 36.3 37.4
La Cygne 8.7 12.8 17.9 25.4 31.4 33.5 33.8
Trading Post 11.4 14.7 17.5 23.7 31.8 36.7 38.0
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6
Tonganoxie 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4
:Kansas River
De Soto 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2
:Missouri River
St Joseph 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
Atchison 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1
Parkville 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3
Kansas City 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6
Napoleon 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0
Waverly 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2
Miami 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8
Glasgow 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.6
Boonville 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:102 River
Maryville 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Platte River
Agency 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0
:Platte River
Sharps Station 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3
Bannister Road Ka 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
71 Highway Kansas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3
63rd Street Kansa 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Colorado Avenue K 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0
Stadium Drive Kan 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
17th Street Kansa 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9
12th Street Kansa 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
:Little Blue River
Lake City 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2
:Crooked River
Richmond 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 3.0 3.0
:Thompson River
Trenton 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
Gallatin 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6
Chillicothe 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
Sumner 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3
:Chariton River
Novinger 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Prairie Hill 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
:South Grand River
Urich 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown 7.8 7.8 7.6 1.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 14.0 13.7 13.4 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6
La Cygne 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.2
Trading Post 5.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW