249
FXUS63 KEAX 141723
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

..18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the week
  *Today expected to be the warmest with highs in the mid to upper
   80s

- Multiple chances for showers and storms starting Friday into
  early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows weak mid to upper level ridging just
upstream of the area which should help to keep conditions warm and
quiet for today. A weak band of vorticity from a filling closed low
just south of the Great Lakes Region could provide enough lift for
some clouds this afternoon across the area. As we continue to advect
warm air, from a thermal ridge to our southwest over the TX/Mexico
border, expect the warmest temperatures of the week today. Highs
across the area are anticipated to reach the mid to high 80s. A few
areas in eastern KS/western MO may see the low 90s, however
increased cloud coverage could keep highs in upper 80s. Guidance
since yesterday has backed off on areas seeing their first 90 degree
day. The LREF is keeping the best chances of reaching 90 degrees in
eastern KS below 20%.

Mid to upper level troughing across the Pacific Northwest pushes the
ridging farther east by late Wednesday. The troughing results in
leeward surface cyclogenesis over the central KS/NE border. This low
begins to track to the northeast through southeast NE. As the
associated warm front pushes north towards the MO/IA border,
isentropic ascent at the 305K surface could result in a few light
sprinkles just after midnight tonight mainly for areas north of HWY-
70. The two main limiting factors will be the stout cap in place as
well as dry air behind the cold front on the heels of the warm
front. Decided to keep the forecast dry due to such a strong cap and
the few deterministic models forecasting rain keep 24-hr rainfall
totals minimal. The cold front slows down about halfway through MO
draping from north central MO extending to the southwest into KS. A
weak temperature gradient associated with this front will only
slightly reduce Thursday highs to low to mid 80s across the area
(compared to today`s highs). Some slightly elevated fire weather
concerns are still possible for Thursday afternoon primarily for the
northwestern corner of MO and eastern KS. Winds will increase to
around 25-30 kts with the strengthened pressure gradient and RH
values are expected to range in the low to mid 20s.

By Friday, the surface low tracks to the north over MN. The stalled
frontal boundary will have gradually sagged to the southeast over
central MO. This is where the situation gets a little interesting.
The frontal boundary will act as a lifting mechanism for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening mainly from an imaginary line
from north central MO to west central MO. The GFS suggests bulk
shear values range around 40-50 kts and MUCAPE values around 500-800
J/kg. This could provide a decent environment for a few strong
storms if the cap is able to erode. Ensemble guidance seems less
excited about the severe potential keeping MUCAPE in the 300-600
J/kg range. There is consensus between model guidance in a favorable
environment for storms east of I-35 Friday afternoon. The varying in
available instability could be the difference between general and
strong storms. Also, deterministic models diverge on solutions
further increasing uncertainty. The more favorable environment seems
to be well to our southeast over the Ozark Plateau to Ohio River
Valley Region. For now, no severe weather is expected for our area,
but we will continue to seek future model guidance.

For the start of the weekend mid to upper level ridging builds into
the Great Plains Region keeping most of Saturday mostly quiet. In
the Pacific Northwest, a trough comes onshore and begins ejecting a
series of shortwaves which provide the area with almost daily
chances of rain starting late Saturday night into early next week.
In spite of the rainy days ahead, temperatures mainly stay a few
degrees above normal ranging in the mid 70s to low 80s from
Saturday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period across
the sites. For this afternoon, SE winds gusting to around 20kts
before busts ease after 00/01z. Sustained winds remain up a
bit, around 7 to 10 kts overnight while winds too shift more
southerly and eventually southwesterly after 12z Thursday. By
end of the period, gusts to lower 20s kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis