031
FXUS63 KEAX 131938
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
238 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the week.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms Sunday into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

This afternoon a closed upper level low is over the lower Ohio River
Valley. A cu field around this feature is bringing partly to mostly
cloudy skies to the area this afternoon. There is the slight chance
of a shower this afternoon across the eastern CWA but most of the
area is mainly expected to remain dry. Temperatures this afternoon
are expected to be around 10 degrees above normal with highs in the
low to mid 80s. Tonight, the upper level low over the lower Ohio
River Valley will shift east becoming a non-entity for the local
area. Also, tonight a upper level trough will move from the western
Rockies into the central Rockies. This will force downstream upper
level ridging to build over the area which will aid in temperatures
rising into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Tomorrow evening into
tomorrow night a warm front will lift across the CWA which may
produce a storm across extreme northern Missouri however most of the
activity is expected to remain north of the area. Wednesday night
into Thursday the aforementioned upper level trough will move from
the eastern Rockies into the northern Plains. This will sag a weak
cold front into the area however, with a lack of cold air behind the
front temperatures will remain changed little with highs still in
the mid to upper 80s.

Friday the upper level trough over the northern Plains will move
into the Upper Midwest forcing another weak cold front through the
area. Model solutions suggest that the best chance for storms will
be north of the CWA where better upper level forcing reside and
along the front south and east of the CWA where better instability
and moisture return resides. Consequently, most of the forecast area
is again expected to remain dry however some slight chance PoPs
(>20%) are forecast for the southeastern CWA. Highs Friday will
again be in the 80s. A surface ridge of high pressure will build
into the area for Saturday making for very pleasant conditions with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Sunday into Monday a slow moving upper level trough will move from
the western Rockies into the eastern Rockies. Models depict several
lead shortwaves bringing a few chances for thunderstorms to the area
through the period. Current NBM output puts PoPs ranging from chance
to likely (30-80%) through much of this period however, model run to
run consistency limits confidence at this time. Despite unsettled
conditions temperatures are still expected to remain slightly above
normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with sct clouds around 5kft
thru 01Z before clear skies prevail. Aft 10Z...sct high clouds
are fcst. Winds will be out of the SE btn 5-10kts through 10Z
aft which winds will becmg ESE around 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73