007
FXUS63 KEAX 021901
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke/haze from the Canadian wildfires will continue through
  Sunday; however, overall effects on air quality and visibility
  are expected to diminish gradually.

- Below-seasonal temperatures will continue through Monday, but
  temperatures will warm to near/above seasonal averages by the
  end of next week.

- Conditions will be mostly dry through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Another hazy day across the area as smoke from the Canadian
wildfires continues to seep into much of the northern and
central U.S. Given the rather nebulous upper flow in much of the
U.S. and a favorable northwesterly fetch in the central/eastern
portion of the country, it may take some time for the
smoke/haze to diminish. Conditions are certainly better today,
given satellite and air-quality observations, but upstream
observations suggest that the smoke will probably stick around
for at least another 24 hours. Though the effects of the smoke
are expected to continue to dwindle, we should continue to see
a somewhat milky sky and perhaps some reduced visibilities,
particularly late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, the pleasant temperatures will continue through
Monday, with northwesterly flow and a strong surface high
maintaining their pronounced effects on the eastern half of the
U.S. through this time. A weak shortwave trough will move into
the central U.S. on Sunday, with fairly widespread convection
expected in the High Plains tonight and again Sunday night.
However, the large-scale descent from the elongated high in the
central/eastern U.S. is expected to keep the precipitation
mostly confined to our west. Most CAMs and coarser guidance
keep us dry through Monday, and ensembles have followed suit
with PoPs generally below 15 percent, even in our eastern Kansas
counties. That said, we are on the western periphery of the
lingering high pressure, so it is not impossible we see a shower
or two through Sunday night if the upstream system is stronger
than progged. Notably, the MPAS CAMs and the RRFS are a little
more aggressive with development of a mesoscale convective
vortex just to our west tomorrow, and all hint at some light
precipitation in its proximity on Sunday. For now, think the
chances are sufficiently low to keep precipitation out of the
forecast through Monday, but this is worth keeping an eye on for
potential re-inclusion of some precipitation chances in our far
west at some point Sunday.

Conditions will begin to warm up steadily after Monday, as an
upper ridge in the southwestern U.S. expands its influence into
much of the central/southern U.S. for most of the rest of the
week. This will also keep the forecast area primarily dry during
this period, as well, with the storm track remaining well
northwest of the central Plains. However, some rather potent
vorticity maxima will be ejecting from a deepening longwave
trough in the northwestern U.S. late in the week. Models are
struggling to figure out how far south and east any attendant
convection will develop with these ejecting perturbations. Given
the large-scale pattern, I suspect our region is too far
southeast to see any meaningful effects from these vorticity
maxima; however, there is a notable perturbation that ejects
early enough in the period (Tuesday night into Wednesday) that
may be reasonably successful in generating some convection in
our far north/northwest zones (before the broad-scale high
expands sufficiently far east to stunt southward progression of
such systems). Thereafter, it will take a series of shortwave
troughs to dampen the ridging downstream to get our region in
play for precipitation, which will at least take the rest of the
week. We may not stay dry through next weekend, though, if the
12z ensemble suite is to be believed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Main aviation issue today remains the smoke, but visibilities
have improved to VFR late this morning. Satellite and
observations upstream suggest that a smoky haze will likely
continue for much of the next 24 hours, but its effects will
be somewhat more limited than what was seen Friday and Friday
night. For now, have kept VFR conditions at MCI through the
period, though have included mention of smoke through tonight.
Certainly not out of the question visibility returns to
periodic MVFR tonight into early Sunday morning. Winds will
generally be from the southeast today around 10 kt, becoming
more easterly and diminishing to around 5 kt tonight. A
return to southeast winds around 10 kt is expected on Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-029-
     037.
KS...Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...CMS