255
FXUS63 KEAX 222255
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Multiple rounds of showers/storms Friday through Tuesday
  - Conditional severe threat depending on available
   instability
  - Best chance late Saturday into early Sunday

*Heavy rainfall could result in flooding issues for southern
 fringes of our area Sunday through Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Mid to upper level troughing over the Great Lakes Region continues
to push farther east as ridging moves into the Great Plains. This
ridging has produced a surface high over the Dakotas to our
northwest. As the high descends to the south, broad-scale subsidence
and northwesterly flow will keep the rest of today and the start of
tomorrow fairly mild and dry. Tomorrow morning lows are anticipated
to range in the 40s across the region.

On Friday, the mid-level ridge axis moves just to our west over
eastern KS. However, slight H700 troughing over the MT/ND/SD border
extending down into TX will result in leeward cyclogenesis in
eastern CO. This surface low will at first track to the east. Winds
out ahead of the low will shift to the south allowing for theta-e
transport. Isentropic ascent will present us with a chance for
showers and potentially a storm or two Friday afternoon into the
overnight. Showers/storms will become more widespread into the late
evening as the surface low tracks more to the east and enter get
deeper into the warm sector. The brunt of the precip is expected to
stay along and south of I-70. The main limiting factor will be how
far north the instability will be able to spread. Model consensus is
showing the better instability staying to the south and southeast
over southeastern KS and the Ozarks. As of now, MUCAPE values stay
meager up to 300 J/kg and lapse rates around 6-7 degrees/km across
our area. A decently sheared environment with bulk shear values
ranging from 35-45 kts could aid in a few isolated storms forming,
but the severe threat seems low at this time. Some of the strongest
cells could produce small hail or strong winds.

Overnight Friday into Saturday, the surface low is expected to begin
to track to the southeast into the southwestern OK with the
associated warm front extending into west-central MO. This will
shift the precipitation during the early morning hours more
southerly into SGF`s area. The warm front stalls out and becomes
more diffuse over central MO with a west-east orientation. This
frontal boundary will provide forcing for multiple rounds of
showers/storms for Saturday. Models having been trending towards
stalling the warm front farther to the southwest which would
diminish chances for showers and storms for our area. The best
chance for severe comes late Saturday night into early Sunday as
steady moisture transport helps to increase instability. MUCAPE
values improve from the previous day as they range from 500-800 J/kg
and lapse rates approach 7 degrees C/km. Shear remains present in
the environment with roughly 40-50 kts of bulk shear helping storms
to form. This suggests potential hazards could be strong to damaging
winds and hail. Multiple rounds of showers and storms from Friday
through the start of next week could lead to flooding concerns.
PWATs range from 1 to 1.25 inches across the area which happens to
fall in the 75th percentile range for this time of year. WPC has
issued a slight risk for 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday for areas near
Butler and Clinton. For Sunday into Monday, WPC has extended the
slight risk farther north encompassing areas along and south of a
line from the KC Metro to Moberly as additional showers are
anticipated for Sunday as the stalled low finally moves out of the
area.

Late Monday, mid to upper level troughing ejects a shortwave or two
through the flow that gives us rain chances late Monday into
Tuesday. Severe weather is not expected with limited instability in
the environment, however additional rounds of rain could further
agitate already flooded areas. Storm Total QPF from Friday through
Tuesday has areas near Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties
receiving around 3 inches of rain. According to FFG, this would not
present flooding concerns, however, there is uncertainty with how
far north the moisture transport will extend.

For the second half of next week, mid to upper level ridging builds
into the area giving us a brief break from the rain, but another
trough brings rain chances again towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conds with clr skies are expected thru 10Z aft which bkn
high clouds are expected to mov into the TAF sites. Aft
14Z-15Z...bkn mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst. Northerly
winds at 5-10kts at the beginning of the TAF pd will become lgt
and vrb aft 02Z. Aft 10Z winds will increase out of the E/ESE at
5-10kts. There is a chc for a few thunder showers to mov into
the TAF sites as early as 21Z however, conf on timing and
location precluding added a prob 30 grp with this issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Monday evening for
     MOZ053-054.
KS...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Monday evening for
     KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73