715
FXUS63 KEAX 121826
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
126 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of storms (less than 20%) possible across
  northern Missouri this afternoon. Severe weather not expected.

- Temperatures will warm into late week and into the weekend,
  with heat indices nearing heat advisory criteria on Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

One more slight chance of precipitation is expected today as a upper
level shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest during the
day. This will force a weak cold front into the area. There will be
a slight chance of precipitation across northern Missouri this
afternoon however, better chances will remain north of the area
where better forcing will reside. The weak cold front should hold
highs today in the low to mid 80s. A period of dry weather finally
looks to begin tonight as a surface ridge of high pressure will build
into the region from the northern Plains. This will allow lows to
fall back into the mid 60s for most while the urban core will remain
near 70. The surface ridge axis will remain over the area on
Wednesday keeping conditions dry and keeping temperatures slightly
below normal with highs in the low to mid 80s.

As we move into the second half of the work week and into the
weekend we will experience a warming trend. This will come courtesy
of a upper level ridge which will reside over the over the
southwestern CONUS on Wednesday but will begin to build eastward on
Thursday into the southwestern Plains. This will aid in highs rising
into the mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday. By Friday, the upper level
ridge axis will build directly over the area and will remain over
the area through at least Saturday allowing highs to rise into the
upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values are currently expected to
range from 100-105 however, this will need to be monitored for
marginal heat advisory criteria. Model differences on the strength
of the ridge keeps confidence low as to when the next chance for
precipitation and break in the heat will arrive. The GFS rounds a
upper level shortwave around the ridge late Sunday into Sunday night
breaking the ridge down and bringing the next chance for
precipitation. The EC has a higher amplitude ridge over the region
on Sunday/Monday which does not get broken down until Tuesday when a
stronger upper level trough rounds the ridge a forces a cold front
through the region. Regardless, Sunday looks to remain warm and dry
with highs remaining in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A few pockets of lingering MVFR ceilings are still present
near/around the terminals. Conditions are anticipated to
improve to VFR over the next few hours. Winds will remain calm-
light for the duration of the TAF period. There is a potential
for MVFR ceilings again tomorrow morning, however confidence is
low so just went with SCT030.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Collier