872
FXUS63 KEAX 231739
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated sprinkles Saturday morning

- Highs in the 80s today, working toward 70s through Tuesday

- Low end precipitation chances along MO-KS state line Monday and
  Tuesday, more widespread toward end of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Cold front has pushed southeastward and as of 08z is roughly
positioned from northeast Kansas to north-central Missouri. GOES
satellite nighttime physics imagery shows plenty of cloud cover
along this front. Rain though has been very minimal since about 06z.
Appears that the CAMs, including the HRRR, have been over estimating
CAPE. While composite radar reflectivity fields show some elevated
returns, very minimal rainfall has been reported at the surface. It
appears the CAMs may have been too robust with low-level moisture
ahead of the front, noting that even through the overnight hours
that dewpoint depressions have remained roughly 4-5F in several
spots. Through the remainder of the morning, the HRRR tries to
continue to develop more activity but radar trends have indicated
otherwise this has not been a favorable environment. Given the
presence of the cold front, will maintain slight chances POPs around
15% for the remainder of the morning with the expectation it may
just be sprinkle activity. For the remainder of the day, the cold
front will sink a bit further southward and eventually stall, before
being pushed back toward the east. The temperature drop on the
backside has not been overly drastic, and if we see a subtle shift
eastward of the ridge axis from the southwest CONUS, we should see
weak dAVA that promotes subsidence and will help clear the cloud
cover that has been trailing the cold front. Therefore, temperatures
today are expected to reach back into the mid 80s. The main wild
card for temperatures though will be shower complex over central
Kansas early this morning. If this lingers, we could see more cloud
cover that may result in temperatures coming in a few degrees
cooler.

Persistent northwesterly flow in the mid and upper portions of the
troposphere will continue through the middle of this week as strong
ridge is in place across the southwestern CONUS with closed-low
system sitting between the northern Great Lakes and Hudson Bay. At
the surface, anticyclone will spread from the northern High Plains
into the lower Missouri River Valley. Light northerly winds will
help bring temperatures down into the mid 70s for the start of the
next work week. Deterministic model solutions continue to depict a
few vort maxima that move downstream from the ridge axis, providing
lift mainly across central Kansas to around the Flint Hills area.
This forcing may clip areas in far eastern Kansas, which could could
include western portions of the Kansas City Metro. Ensemble
solutions also paint higher probabilities across much of central
Kansas for rain shower and storm activity, with lower probabilities
that come roughly to the KS-MO state line. In the forecast, will
maintain slight chance POPs (15-24%) for areas from the Kansas City
metro, and west to southwestward. Current expectation is for areas
eastward to central Missouri to remain dry, as mid-level lift is not
expected to be present and surface anticyclone slides southeastward.

By middle to late next week, the Hudson Bay low shifts eastward,
while a PV anomaly over the Pacific promotes troughing in the
western CONUS, shifting the ridge axis eastward and deamplifying the
pattern. This will shift any tracks of vort maxima toward the lower
Missouri River Valley Thursday into Friday, resulting in more
widespread H5 height falls across the forecast area. This spreads
precipitation chances further eastward into Central Missouri, and
ensemble suites are in agreement with increasing probabilities for
measurable rainfall toward the end of this week. Temperatures
toward the end of the weak remain uncertain though, as NBM and other
ensemble suites show a considerable spread for inner-quartile
values, especially in maximum temperatures. Based on deterministic
guidance output, this is like attributed to differences in timing of
the subtle vort maxima that move through toward the end of the week,
as well as any kind of thermal gradient they may develop as the
ridge axis slides eastward. Cooler solutions for the end of next
week keep temperatures below normal for the end of August, while,
warmer solutions are closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions to start the TAF period as cloud decks
around 1.5-6 kft gradually dissipates. VFR conditions are
expected to return within the next few hours. Winds will remain
fairly light out of the north. Winds shift more easterly late
tonight into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Collier