014
FXUS63 KEAX 061919
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
219 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely for most of the area
  tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon. These storms
  will most likely limit severe potential in the afternoon/
  evening tomorrow.

- Additional storms are expected along a cold front Sunday
  afternoon/evening. Storms along and south of Highway 50 may be
  severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This afternoon a stationary front resides south of the forecast
area. A surface low is traveling across southern Missouri along
this front with a weak upper level shortwave aloft providing lift
which is leading to showers across the southern CWA. This surface
low will shift east of the area this evening under quasi-zonal flow
aloft. A few weak upper disturbances may be enough to produce some
spotty showers this evening however most will remain dry. Tonight a
upper level shortwave will move out across Nebraska/northern Kansas.
This will spawn two clusters of storms...one across southern Kansas
along the stationary front, the second a little further north in the
vicinity of the the upper level shortwave where better forcing will
reside. These complexes of storms are expected to move into the
forecast area around sunrise with showers and thunderstorms expected
through the morning into the early afternoon. This round of storms
will most likely limit instability across the forecast area for
stronger afternoon storms with better chances for stronger storms
residing south of the area along an outflow boundary or along an
area of differential heating. Temperatures Saturday will be limited
by convection and cloud cover with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Conditions will dry out Saturday night with high pressure residing
over the area. However, dry conditions will be short-lived as on
Sunday a upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest. This will
force a cold front through the area. Moisture will initially be
lacking on Sunday however, moisture return in the afternoon coupled
with daytime heating aiding in MUCAPE values reaching 2000-3000J/Kg
across the southern CWA will provide the potential for severe storms
with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Highs Sunday
will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Monday, the aforementioned upper level trough digging through the
Upper Midwest will move into the western Great Lakes pushing a
reinforcing cold front through the area. However, this frontal
passage is expected to be dry and is expected to continue slightly
below normal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Shortwave upper level ridging will build into the region for Tuesday
and Wednesday out ahead of a upper level trough slowly moving
through the southern High Plains. High pressure at the surface will
keep temperatures below seasonal normal on Tuesday with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s before returning to normal on Wednesday with
highs in the low to mid 80s. The next chance for precipitation will
arrive Thursday as the upper level trough over the High Plains moves
into the local area.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Conds are expected to remain VFR with bkn clouds btn 4-6kft thru
most of the TAF pd however, around 10Z-12Z a complex of
thunderstorms is expected to move into the TAF sites with MVFR
cig/vis. Winds thru the TAF pd will generally be 6kts or less
while veering from the north to the ESE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73