049
FXUS63 KEAX 011720
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some lingering wildfire smoke moves across area today, may cause
  periodic air quality issues for certain populations.

* Generally quiet and cool/below normal temperatures through
  the weekend.

* Temperatures and humidity begin rebound next week, including
  uncertain shower or storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A slowly migrating and broad/messy trough-ridge-trough pattern seen
across CONUS tonight, with the ridge broadly centered over the
eastern Rockies up into western Canadian Plains. At the surface, and
more regionally, a large surface high remains dominant from the
eastern Dakotas through the northern Great Lakes. Locally, this has
resulted in persistent northerly to northeasterly winds and the
overcast and drizzle filled skies much of Thursday before clearing
Thursday evening and overnight. Currently, GOES Nighttime
Microphysics depicts mostly clear skies with stratus deck
having just cleared into the SGF CWA and only a few higher level
wispy clouds over N/NW Missouri. Surface observations too
continue to signal the presence of smoke (or FU for the
METAR/aviation inclined) with majority of observations within
the CWA and areas to the W/E/N reporting visibilities of 4 to 6
miles.

For today, surface high will continue to exert dominance, keeping
conditions dry, limited cloud cover, and seasonally cool. Expect
temperatures to remains around 10 degrees below normal, generally
residing in the mid 70s north to low 80s south. Largely a very
enjoyable day, if it were not for some smoke considerations. As has
already been noted, some surface smoke in place and is expected to
be around much of the day with the broad subsidence in place
limiting dispersion and a large area of smoke caught within the
broader surface high. Near-surface smoke via HRRR-smoke is by no
means extreme, but is expected to linger and may be similar to
present (visibilities 4-6 SM or so) throughout much of the day.
Peering at recent and current AQI maps across the region, this too
suggests that air quality may range from "Unhealthy for Sensitive
Groups to Unhealthy." This may be mitigated a bit by diurnal mixing,
but strong cap in place will prevent any meaningful dispersion.
Additionally, going to be a hazy (white-ish) look to the sky and sun
throughout the day with additional, and higher concentrated, smoke
depicted within the HRRR-smoke vertically integrated smoke
product riding the broader mid-upper level westerly flow.

Much, if not all, of the weekend shapes up to see similar sensible
weather conditions with little meaningful change in the broader
synoptic pattern and lack of notable shortwave disturbances within
deterministic synoptic guidance. This leaves the surface high as the
main driver of local conditions as it gradually drifts ESE and
stalls over the Great Lakes region. Winds will gradually shift more
easterly as a result, but source airmass will remain unchanged,
keeping temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s and humidity down
with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Difficult to find much
to complain about there, aside from some lingering smoke potential.
Best bet appears to be continued hazy skies with extended HRRR-smoke
runs depicting such concentrations at least through Saturday. Near-
surface smoke is suggested to be less of an issue via those extended
runs. Precipitation chances do crop up/return Sunday over far
western areas of the CWA within NBM guidance as a shortwave
approaches, however appears poised to struggle mightily with dry air
mass in place, no meaningful moisture return, and little to no
instability.

Into next week, surface high eventually gets shunted eastward
in response to building S/SW CONUS mid-upper level ridge. This
will allow temperatures and dew points to rebound back toward
more seasonable levels in the mid 80s/low 90s and upper 60s/low
70s respectively by mid-week. This too looks to set up another
"ring of fire," leaving shower/storm opportunities at least
partially dependent on how strong of a mid-upper level ridge is
able to build into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Minor visibility reductions will continue through at least this
afternoon and evening due to wildfire smoke. Otherwise, only
high-level clouds expected with light E to ENE winds becoming
light ESE-SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028-029-037.
KS...Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...CDB