299
FXUS63 KEAX 200501
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms late tonight through Sunday
  evening.

- Strong to severe storms, with all hazards, possible from late
  tomorrow morning through early tomorrow evening.

- Above normal temperatures next week with multiple chances for
  additional showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

19Z water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough moving
through the Four-Corners region. Ensemble mean guidance has this
wave digging southern New Mexico overnight and then ejecting
northeastward through the day tomorrow, getting to southern KS and
northern OK by 18Z. This timing presents a potentially high end
severe weather threat for the forecast tomorrow afternoon. However,
there are several factors that may inhibit that higher end potential
from being realized. At the surface, a deepening surface low will
move into eastern KS and western MO, potentially right over the KC
area. A warm front will extend eastward of the surface low and
establish a modest warm sector over the southeastern quadrant of the
forecast area, generally south of a line from Macon to Cameron, and
east of line from Cameron to Butler. Within this warm sector, modest
SBCAPE may be able to build. Ensemble mean guidance suggest upwards
of 500 J/kg. This could vary as high as 1500-1600 J/kg. It`s that
upper end variability that would ramp up the severe potential
because the deep-layer shear will be extremely strong. All that
said, there is such strong forcing ahead of the shortwave that
multiple rounds of showers and storms look possible/likely through
the morning into the early afternoon hours that we just aren`t able
to build up the CAPE and rather just release it through the day.
This is the more likely scenario and that would decrease the severe
potential substantially. Given the strong shear though, and the
advancing cold front into the warm sector, there should be a line of
storms develop, within that area denoted above, with potential for
discrete or semi-discrete rotating storms. HREF 4-hr max updraft
helicity guidance helps denote this potential, showing the greatest
potential for rotating storms in our southeastern zones.

This system will quickly move northeast into the Upper Midwest by
early Monday morning. Dry conditions are expected Monday with
temperatures climbing back into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Tuesday
looks breezy with southwesterly winds helping to warm temperatures
up into the upper 70s. This is ahead of the next cold front expected
to move into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. While Tuesday
daytime looks mostly dry, a few showers and storms may develop late
in the afternoon along the front as it moves into the area.
Otherwise, more widespread precipitation looks possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Unsettled weather may continue late
in the week but there is quite a bit of variability in the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Light rain continues at the KC metro terminals, with MVFR CIGs
at IXD and MKC and likely soon to develop at MCI. Rain intensity
will likely increase a bit by around 10z, with MVFR conditions
continuing (rain and MVFR conditions should begin at STJ around
11z). There may be a lull in the rain between roughly 16z and
19z, with moderate rain and perhaps thunderstorms impacting the
KC metro terminals between roughly 19z and 22z Sunday
afternoon. Some light to occasionally moderate rain may linger
through around 1z to 2z before exiting to the northeast. MVFR
conditions are likely to persist through the period, although
periods of IFR (either from VIS, CIGs, or both) will be
possible. Winds will begin the period out of the east,
eventually becoming west northwesterly behind the surface low
and front by late tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

While rain rates with additional showers and storms should be
low enough to preclude flash flooding, rain totals may be high
enough to lead to minor river flooding, especially if some
smaller and more quickly responding basins are affected. These
include the South Grand, Petite Saline, Lamine, and Big Creek,
as well as larger basins like the Blackwater and the Marias Des
Cygnes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ045-046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BMW
HYDROLOGY...CDB