501
FXUS63 KEAX 301955
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain spreads east into eastern KS and western MO this evening and
  overnight, with isolated to scattered showers continuing through the
  holiday weekend.

- Below normal temperatures expected next week. Temperatures may
  be 15-20 degrees below normal Thursday morning through Friday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into western NE
and SD this afternoon. Modest moisture transport through the Central
Plains, ahead of this shortwave, was helping to lead to isolated to
scattered showers across central to eastern NE and KS. However, high
pressure over the Great Lakes region was advecting lower-level dry
air into western MO and eastern KS. So as the showers move east,
they move into deeper dry air. In fact, at 19Z cloud bases just
starting to fall below 12K feet. Given this, can`t rule out
some light rain moving into the area with the initial mid-level
moisture return and forcing associated with the eastern extent
of the mid and upper-level shortwave. The better chances for
precipitation will arrive tonight through Sunday as the area
sees better/ deeper saturation. Even with that occurring, it
doesn`t look like a complete washout with heavy rain on Sunday.
Rather, it continues to look like scattered showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms. The more widespread precipitation Sunday
looks focused across NE to potentially far NW MO, closer to the
center of the shortwave and associated forcing. Instability
continues to look weak, with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE
forecast. Weak mid and upper-level winds will keep shear weak as
well. Given the weak CAPE and shear, there may only be few non-
severe storms. Most of the precipitation looks like just rain.
Overall, heaviest rain amounts over the next 2-3 days, will be
mainly in our KS counties. These areas have the best chances for
greater than 1" of rainfall. Ensemble guidance shows this area
having a 50-70% chance of seeing at least an inch of rain for
the 72-hour period ending 7 PM Tuesday. Rain amounts diminish
further east quickly with areas west of the Highway 63 corridor
having a greater than 50% chance of seeing at least a half in
for the same time frame.

Wednesday, a stronger system moves into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes regions. This will force a strong cold front southward
Wednesday afternoon/evening. This cold front will drop temperatures
significantly with lows Thursday morning ranging from the lower 40s
to near 50 in the urban core of Kansas City. There are also some
low probabilities (<10%) of seeing temperatures below 38
Thursday morning. This suggest that some sheltered/ low-lying
areas may see temperatures in the mid to upper 30s with
potential for frost. The center of that cool high pressure area
moves east late Thursday into Friday. It still looks much
cooler than normal Friday morning but not quite as cool as
Thursday morning.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Rain showers
move into northeastern KS and northwestern MO this afternoon.
This will mainly affect the STJ terminal. Precipitation chances
diminish further south and west. So have kept a PROB30 group for
late this afternoon and early this evening. Better chances move
into the area late tonight and early tomorrow morning so have
added a prevailing group to account for that. Winds look light
through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB