295
FXUS63 KEAX 232318
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Slow moving cold front is expected to work south tonight
  approaching the I-70 corridor. Storms along and north of the
  front could produce very heavy rainfall, and a strong wind
  gust or two.

* Warm and muggy conditions return Wednesday - late week, with
  the potential for periodic storms late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Cold front associated with an area of low pressure centered over the
Hudson Bay extends from northeast Iowa into far southeastern
Nebraska as of 20Z. While cumulus have begun to develop ahead of the
front, atmosphere remains weakly capped with surface approaching
convective temp in eastern Kansas. Convection has begun to develop
along the surface front as atmosphere has become increasingly
unstable with 7.5-8.0 C/km lapse rates from 750 - 600 mb yielding
~3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Upper level divergence from the
right entrance region of the upper level jet is more concentrated
across northern Missouri but remains broadly across the region
tonight into Tuesday. As convection increases in the vicinity of the
front, expect the cold front to work south and become the focus for
additional storms tonight. With very deep warm cloud depths near 12K
feet and PWat values near 2", am concerned about the potential for
heavy rainfall in locations that see storms train and backbuild
along the front. CAMs have suggested the potential for isolated
rainfall amounts of 3-5+" with training storms along the front
across northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri/far southeast
Nebraska tonight into Tuesday.  With dry conditions leading into the
event and only isolated locations potentially exceeding flash flood
guidance, am not considering a flash flood watch at this time.
Current wind shear is very weak (0-6 km bulk shear < 25 knots)
limiting the severe threat potential. Wind shear increases slightly
this evening as the low level jet increases ahead of the front
ticking up towards 30 knots this evening across northern Missouri,
potentially leading to isolated strong to severe storm through the
evening hours. With the very warm environment, height of the 50 dbz
is near 40k. Downdraft CAPE of near 1000 J/kg is enough to lead to a
strong wind gust or two with stronger more organized storms.Anoy
outflow boundaries that develop could also serve as a focusing
mechanism for additional convection.

Additional storms are expected tonight into Tuesday largely along
and north of the stalling boundary across the region. With
relatively weak wind shear and relatively weak cap, severe threat
along and north of the boundary is possible with any organized
storms capable of producing a strong wind gust or two. Am not
expecting heat advisory conditions tomorrow with clouds and
scattered storms throughout the day.

Lingering boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm front
Tuesday night into Wednesday leading to warm and muggy conditions
spreading regionwide. Addtional ridge riding short waves are
expected to lead to additional chances of storms late week, though
there is low model agreement outside of storm potential beyond
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Front will slowly move southeastward out of Nebraska and Kansas
and expecting multiple rounds of pop up shower and thunderstorm
activity. MVFR ceilings may occur with heavier precipitation.
Some models show brief periods of IFR ceilings but confidence
not high enough to place in current 00z TAFs. Timing of
storms/showers has been difficult. TAFs reflect periods of
highest probabilities for occurrence of precipitation at the
terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Krull