467
FXUS63 KEAX 170402
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1102 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue through Monday with triple
  digit heat indices ranging from 100-108 degrees F.

- Chances (below 30%) for thunderstorms return Monday (mainly
  for eastern KS and western MO) and Tuesday (area-wide).

- Much more seasonal temperatures return next Wednesday with
  highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Broad mid to upper level ridging remaining over the area and
persistent southerly winds have resulted in another hot and humid
day with highs in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the low to
mid 70s. These conditions have yielded widespread triple digit heat
indices ranging from 100-108 degrees F which will make extended
periods of outdoor activity uncomfortable for most. Cloud debris
from a MCS over WI has done virtually nothing to hinder the effects
of daytime heating primarily for northern MO. A few hi-res models
suggest the potential for a few isolated pop-up storms possible this
afternoon to the south and east of our forecast area. The HRRR has
been gradually trending isolated convection closer to the
southeastern fringes of our CWA. So, a stray pop-up storm would not
come as a complete surprise. Decided to include to slight chance
(below 20%) of PoPs this afternoon near Cooper, Pettis, and Henry
counties to account for this. No severe is expected and coverage is
anticipated to remain isolated. Even though there is abundant
instability (4,000-4,500 J/kg of CAPE), very weak shear will impede
storm organization keeping them disorganized. Cu fields have
already developed in southern and central MO with increased
buoyancy with warmer temperatures farther south and low-level
convergence attributed to the decreasing pressure gradient to
the south and east. Cloud coverage is not anticipated to be
robust enough to significantly impact high temperatures. A Heat
Advisory is in effect across the area until 7 PM.

The mid to upper level ridge continues to dominate our area into the
second half of the weekend. Sunday, hot and humid conditions persist
with highs in the 90s and dew points in the low 70s. As a result,
triple digit heat indices are anticipated to range from 100-107
degrees F. There is a little uncertainty with areas across northern
MO as convection from farther west could increase cloud coverage
during the morning. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for
Leavenworth to Macon counties and south from 1 PM- 7 PM tomorrow. We
will continue to monitor conditions to determine whether or not the
expansion of the advisory farther north will be necessary. Late
Sunday into early Monday, southerly flow out ahead of a surface low
combined with a weak low-level jet over KS increasing moisture
transport and a H500 shortwave providing additional lift will result
in storm chances (below 25%) in eastern KS and northwestern MO. For
now, no severe is anticipated, but these storms could complicate the
temperature forecast for Monday. Increased cloud coverage from
storms could inhibit temperatures from reaching heat advisory
criteria thus, decreasing confidence in an area-wide heat advisory.
Areas that are able to clear out could potentially see heat advisory
criteria. The most likely areas to reach heat advisory criteria on
Monday seem to be near central MO (counties near Howard, Cooper,
Pettis, etc.). Holding off on the issuance of any heat headlines for
now given the uncertainty.

For Tuesday, the mid to upper level ridge begins to retrograde over
the Four Corners Region. At the surface, the aforementioned surface
low drags a northeast to southwest oriented cold front through the
area bringing multiple chances for storms ending the hot and humid
conditions. Wednesday, temperatures return to near seasonal averages
with highs in the 80s. Stout mid to upper level ridging remaining
dominant in the west seems to stave off precipitation chances for
the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the overnight into
Sunday morning. Cumulus along with marginally gusty conditions
are expected after 18Z Sunday. May also see an isolated storm
across central MO through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and
any isolated storms should dwindle towards 00Z Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ025-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT