159
FXUS63 KEAX 191952
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather conditions through the weekend

- Chance for light rain Monday night into Tuesday

- Cooler temperatures expected for the middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Broad mid to upper level ridging currently dominates eastern CONUS
with a large surface high to the east of our CWA. Over western CONUS
there is a cut off low over the Four Corners regions. As the surface
high still drives our weather, broadscale subsidence will keep skies
mostly clear. Winds will be fairly weak with a weakened pressure
gradient. Radiational cooling will result in lows tonight ranging
from the upper 40s to low 50s. Through the weekend, the cut off low
continues to slowly move towards the area as the high pressure
continues to be the main influencer of our weather. Expect today and
Sunday to be fairly similar with tomorrow being a degree or two
warmer.

Monday, the cut off low begins to track more northeasterly as it
begins to override the broad ridging in the east. Southerly winds
out ahead of the cut off low will result in a warm start to the week
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Monday night into Tuesday
morning, as the cut off low continues its northeasterly track around
the ridge, the associated surface low and cold front are anticipated
to move through the area bringing a chance for light showers.
Ensembles show up to 60%-70% chance of rain however, a less than 10%
chance of exceeding a quarter inch of rain. At this time, no severe
weather is expected with a lack of moisture reflected in dew point
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s across the area and weak
instability.

After the passage of the cold front, expect a couple days of cooler
high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s with next
Thursday being the coolest day. Anticipate temperatures to gradually
start increasing Friday as the effects of the cold front wear off
and winds shift back to the south. Our next few chances for
precipitation start on Friday and go through the weekend as the next
system moves through the area. At this time, ensemble guidance
suggests PoPs less than 10% across the area through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions expected to last for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds will primarily come from a southerly direction with an
occasional gust to 15 mph through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier