145
FXUS63 KEAX 222318
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight into
  early Saturday morning. Low-end chances for severe weather
  mainly for northwestern MO.

- Spotty chances (up to 30%) for showers and storms Sunday and
Monday for eastern KS and far western MO.

- Below seasonal temperatures arrive Sunday into next week with
  highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The synoptic pattern can defined by a stout mid to upper level high
situated over the Four Corners Region and a dynamic, closed upper
low traversing through the Canadian Provinces into Ontario. At the
surface, a high just to the south of the Great Lakes Region has kept
our winds light and out of the east. This air mass has yielded
rather pleasant conditions yesterday and today. Highs for today will
range in the 80s, staying close to seasonal averages.

Late this evening into the overnight, the closed, upper low will dip
to the south near MN/Canada border and push its associated surface
low and its cold front through the area. The cold front extends out
of Canada passing through NE into CO, oriented from the northeast to
southwest. This front has already initiated thunderstorms in IA
across NE this afternoon. Storms are anticipated to track to the
southeast approaching our northwestern doorstep around midnight
(according to hi-res models). CAMs mostly agree that storms will be
weakening as they move through the area, but disagree on whether or
not storms hold together to make it through area. A common
observation has been noted that CAMs tend to dissipate storms too
quickly. Therefore, there is a little more confidence that storms
persist into the late morning hours possibly reaching areas south of
I-70. Have increased PoPs for southeastern KS and for areas south of
the KC Metro. The severe potential is very low given the limited
instability and better forcing farther to the northwest over NE
closer to the parent low. The best chances for severe will be for
the extreme northwestern corner of MO (Atchison, Holt, and Nodaway
counties). The primary threat will be a few isolated strong to
severe wind gusts as storms collapse. PWATs around 1.5 suggest the
potential for a few heavy downpours. However, transient storms will
likely stave off  flooding concerns. Additional H500 vort maxima,
associated with the parent mid-level low, moving through the flow
could provide some lift further aiding storm initiation into the
afternoon.

For Sunday, below seasonal temperatures are anticipated on the
backside of the cold front as cooler temperatures descend from
Canada with high pressure. Highs are expected to range in the 70s to
low 80s. Late Sunday into Monday, spotty chances for showers and
storms return primarily for eastern KS/western MO with a H700
shortwave moving just to the west of the area. The LREF mostly keeps
a below 30% chance of measurable precip for western KS and eastern
MO for Monday. The next chance for storms comes Thursday with a H500
shortwave moving through the flow. As far as temperatures, highs in
the 70s for most of next week should come as a relief from the hot
and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with clr skies to begin
the TAF pd becmg sct btn 6-8kft aft 02Z. Aft 14Z-15Z bkn clouds
around 10kft are fcst. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 14Z-15Z
when they will incr out of the north around 10kts. There is a
slight chc of lgt tsra at the TAF sites btn 06Z-10Z however,
conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73