733
FXUS63 KEAX 020012
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
712 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity build back in through the end of the week.
  Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, maximum heat index
  values in the mid to upper 90s.

- Independence Day: Storms possible (20-30%) through the day,
  hot and humid, highs around 90 F, maximum heat index upper 90s
  F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

18z surface analysis reveals the surface ridge has settled across
the Central Plains. Aloft, the H500 ridge remains stretched from the
Inter-mountain west to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Locally, light
north-northwest winds have persisted with fair weather cu spread
across the region. Temperatures have been seasonable, in the lower
to mid 80s F.

Through tonight, the surface ridge will slide east-southeast with
the weakening of the H500 ridge, influenced by an open short wave
trough sliding east-southeast off the Northern Plains. Previous
discussion touched on the uncertainty in the break down and eastward
shift of the mid-level ridge axis. Current WV imagery has the short
wave currently moving east-southeast off the northern Rockies. This
has been precipitated by the stout western trough`s onshore arrival
to the California Coast. Through Wednesday, southerly return flow
will re-establish from the Gulf into the southern Plains. In
response, temperatures will start an upward trend, with highs on
Wednesday nearing 90 F once again. This trend will continue through
Thursday and into July Fourth as the H500 ridge axis sharpens over
the Central Plains before moving east, heavily influenced by the
long wave trough impinging toward the Rockies. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s F each day, with heat index values for July
4th in the mid to upper 90s F.

Into Friday morning, the western long wave H500 trough will lift
east-northeast onto the Western High Plains. In response, the
surface trough will elongate and boundary layer to mid-level
convergence will increase from Texoma to the mid-Missouri
Valley. Time-height cross-sections and isentropic maps across
the region suggest sufficient moisture and isentropic ascent
through the 320K level. This in addition to a modest LLJ through
Friday morning of 30kts, will be supportive of scattered
thunderstorms across eastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri.
NBM PoPs remain low, 20 to 30%, which is reasonable given the
modest forcing for ascent, moisture profile, and general
uncertainty with guidance given the advanced time frame.
Overall, precipitation chances increase (20-40%) after 00Z (7pm)
as the parent upper low finally shifts eastward through
Saturday Morning. In short, Fourth of July will be hot and humid
with low chances for storms, early in the day along/near the
KS/MO border, and then increasing chances across northwestern
Missouri and overnight into central MO through Saturday morning.
NBM probs discussed above are for qpf over 0.01 inches. NBM
probs for >0.10" are much lower, around 15 to 20%. Drop in probs
with higher QPF is not unexpected, especially three to four
days in the future. There remains uncertainty in where and when
precipitation will develop. We should begin to see some
increasing confidence between tomorrow and Thursday. However,
right now, I do not foresee the fourth being a washout but more
nuisance storms.

Beyond the Fourth, the synoptic pattern remains unsettled, with
shallow H500 ridging over the southwest CONUS, while short wave
troughs ride the prevailing flow off the northern Rockies and
Plains. This has resulted in low PoP chances off and on through the
remainder of the holiday weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions under generally clear skies are expected through
the period. Light and variable winds this evening should become
south southwesterly by late tonight, remaining light (8 knots or
less).

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...BMW