281
FXUS63 KEAX 221122
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
522 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above Normal temperatures this weekend.

- Next chance for precipitation (25-40%) will be Wednesday into
  Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Early this morning a surface ridge of high press is building is
building into the area from the Plains. Across the western CWA where
skies have cleared and winds are starting to relax temperatures will
begin the day in the upper 20s, further east across the CWA a
stratus deck is anchored over the area and will hold temperatures
this morning in the lower 30s. The surface ridge axis will move
direct over the area by this afternoon providing for weak mixing
however sunny skies should help highs rebound into the mid 40s to
near 50. The surface ridge will remain in control through tonight
with a good radiational cooling setup allow lows to drop into the
mid 20s to lower 30s. Saturday the surface ridge will slide south
and east of the area and WAA will get underway. this coupled
with subtle height rises will allow highs to move above normal into the
50s to near 60. Sunday, WAA will continue ahead of an approaching
cold front, under zonal flow aloft. This will aid in temperatures
moving 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 50s to
upper 60s. Sunday night into Monday, a upper level trough will move
through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing the
aforementioned cold front through the forecast area. Moisture will
be limited with this system however some models are producing light
QPF...at this time the NBM has not latched onto any precipitation
chances but there does appear to be the chance for some very light
rain showers Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures on Monday behind
the front on Monday will be much cooler in the 40s.

Still not a lot of clarity as to how the lead up to and the
Thanksgiving holiday will play out. Tuesday continues to look dry and
cool as surface high pressure dominates under zonal flow aloft.
Weak mixing will make for another cool day with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Precipitation/snow chances look
less likely with the latest 22/00Z runs of the medium range models
for the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe. The GFS is advertising
weak broad troughing across the central CONUS with precipitation
remaining south of the area along the frontal boundary that moved
through the area on Sunday night/Monday. The EC is advertising a
stronger and deeper trough (than the GFS) moving through the central
CONUS on Wednesday into Wednesday night with precipitation exiting
for the Thanksgiving holiday. This run of the EC is more progressive
and warmer than the previous runs with the cold air lagging behind
the precipitation resulting in most of the precipitation that falls
as rain or a rain/snow mix with little to no snow accumulation.
Again run to run consistency continues to be lacking with
significant model differences so confidence continue to remain low
through this period. Temperatures Wednesday will be in the 40s with
highs for Thanksgiving Day on the cool side in the mid 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just ocnl high
clouds expected. Winds will be out of the NW btn 5-10kts thru
20Z-21Z when winds will become lgt and vrb. Winds will pick back
up out of the south btn 5-10kts aft 04Z-06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73