468
FXUS63 KEAX 200841
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
341 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Muggy this morning, but cooler today with highs in the upper
  80s.

- Seasonally normal temperatures and lower humidities expected
  for to conclude the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend ahead of even
  cooler weather anticipated next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Surface high pressure continues to descend from the upper Midwest
while 500mb flow orients out of the north thanks in part to a
strengthen high over the southern Rockies and a trough dipping
across the Great Lakes and NE CONUS that is also responsible for
steering Hurricane Erin back to sea. This funnels cooler drier air
into the region making the weather outlook over the next few days
quite pleasant. Unfortunately, it will take a little patience to get
there as muggy conditions continue this overnight. Temperatures at
midnight still hover around 80 degrees sans places which saw some
storms earlier this evening. Over the past few hours, temperatures
in some areas have decreased quickly to the low 70s. Residual
outflow boundaries from earlier storms may develop a few isolated
pulse storms through the overnight; however, precipitation chances
continue as the nocturnal inversion increases and the atmosphere
stabilizes. High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s to near
90 degrees. Heat index values will remain double digits, but areas
south of I-70, especially towards Clinton and Butler could make a
run to near triple digit heat index values. Precipitation chances
increase slight across central MO this afternoon and evening as a
weak area of CVA associated with a subtle upper level shortwave
passes through which may develop an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Northerly flow aloft couple with easterly flow below works to bring
cooler and drier conditions in to conclude the week. This flow is
rather weak so the descent in temperatures and moisture will look
rather modest, but the lowered values (especially dew point) will do
wonders on what it feels like outside. Highs through the rest of the
week sit around the seasonal normal in the mid to high 80s with
dew points hanging out in the mid to upper 60s.

The next notable storm system looks to move through the area this
weekend into early next week. Long range guidance progs a deep
cyclone descending from central Canada into the northern Great
Lakes. This looks to develop a substantial cold front across the
central CONUS which sweeps through the area Saturday and Sunday bring
the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Antecedent northerly
flow does little to enhance the pre-frontal environment limited
severe weather concerns; however, some guidance does suggest some
pre-frontal CVA which may work to turn winds a little southerly
ahead of the front`s arrival. While this adds a little enhancement,
it still keeps the strong to severe potential relatively low. More
resolution will be gleaned when CAMs models come into range which
may be able to better pick up on shortwave subtleties. Behind this
activity, temperatures look to sink even lower with high temperatures
settling in the mid to upper 70s which is what we would expected for
October rather than late August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Currently VFR at all terminals with light ENE winds. Fog, with
the potential for areas of dense fog, may develop by around 9z
Wednesday, primarily across NW Missouri. As such, have brought
VIS down to 4SM at STJ by 9z, with a TEMPO group for 1SM between
9z and 13z Wednesday. At MCI, have a TEMPO group for MVFR VIS
also between 9z and 13z. Fog should mix out by around 14z
Wednesday, returning flight categories to VFR. Light ENE should
persist through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Williams