976
FXUS63 KEAX 031728
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active period with vary chances of rain through early
  Sunday morning. Widespread rain possible on Friday (>75%
  across much of the area).

- Potential for rain and snow mix (10-15%) on early Sunday
  morning for locations with below freezing temperatures on
  Sunday morning.

- Morning temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday expected to be
  near or below freezing. Tuesday morning low forecasted the
  coldest morning through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

An upper level trough at 500mb pushes across the northern
plains and with it there are embedded shortwave that will bring
some periods of active weather as this combination of ascent and
isentropic lift allow for light rain to develop as early as
this afternoon. Per the satellite imagery we are seeing
increasing cloud cover across our forecast area. Expect rain
chances to increase this afternoon across the southern portions
of are CWA with 30-50% probability of precipitation remaining
mainly south of the greater Kansas City area and only 15-25%
from St Joseph to Kansas City.

As the trough continues to push eastward across our area from
the northern plains there is also strong low level cold air
advection that will move into our area as we start to see the
combination of cooler temperatures on Friday due to the
widespread precipitation along with the low level CAA into
Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s across
the CWA with precipitation chances of 75-95% on Friday and will
diminish overnight into Saturday. QPF totals on Friday will
remain highest in central Missouri with with 0.5-0.9 inches
expected with 0.2-.5 for areas northwest of Harrisonville. Storm
total precipitation for the entire could potentially see 1.0 to
1.2 inches through Sunday morning for areas from Blue Mount to
Clinton, Sedalia to Moberly. We already saw some increase in
rivers with the recent precipitation received with the active
thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wed this past week and this
additional amounts could lead to see some river/creek rises.
Some of the 72 hour QPF guidance from the RFC indicating some
locations could reach up to the minor flood stage by Friday
night into Saturday. Something to monitor over the next couple
of days.

One of the other concerns to monitor is the near or slightly
below freezing temperatures expected on Sunday morning. There is
a very low potential for snow mix rain chance briefly on early
Sunday morning as temperatures drop near the freezing. However,
do not anticipate given the warm temperatures recently of
potentially just a mix. The LREF is also indicating very low
potential of mix with 10-15% of snow on Saturday night into
Sunday. The main concern with the colder temperatures will be
the vegetation and would need to consider covering any sensitive
vegetation particularly on Tuesday morning which appears to be
the coldest temperatures this week with forecasted lows in the
mid 20s to near 30.

However the warming trend will begin rather quickly by mid week
as temperatures rise once again with morning lows on Wednesday
in the upper 30s to mid 40s and high temperatures expected to
be in the upper 60s to near 70 on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions expected to start the TAF period. Light winds mainly
stay easterly for the duration of the TAF period. Conditions
expected to deteriorate with showers tomorrow morning. Some models
hinted at IFR conditions early tomorrow morning, however, went with
MVFR conditions for now due to low confidence.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...Collier