338
FXUS63 KEAX 212320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Next chance for precipitation (20-30%) will be Wednesday into
  Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

As the system continues to move eastward across the area the
pressure gradient will continue to weaken across the area today
which was assisting with the northerly wind gusts of 25 to 35
mph across the area. These winds will continue to diminish as
the system moves further east. With the surface ridge of high
pressure across the area through tomorrow, this will keep the
temperatures on the cooler with high temperatures remaining in
the 40s across the area this afternoon. Expect a decent
radiational cooling for later tonight which will allow for
minimum temperature on Friday morning to drop into the mid 20s
to lower 30s.

As we move into Saturday, the surface high pressure ridge will
shift southeast of the area and there will be a decent amount
of warm air advection. This will allow temperatures to slowly
warm up particularly for Sunday as high temperatures will move
above normal into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Probabilities of
exceeding 60F degrees on Sunday per the NBM showing 50-60% for
the greater Kansas City metro area with probabilities >80% south
of KC exceeding 60F degrees.

A cold and dry front is expected to move through the area
Sunday night which will drop temperatures back down, with Sunday
being the warmest day through next week into Thanksgiving
holiday. There is still stronger cold air advection behind the
front that will allow high temperatures of Monday to remain in
in the 40s. A surface high pressure will move into the area
Monday night into Tuesday and our area will be in a zonal flow.
Temperatures will remain cooler on Tuesday with highs in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Chances of precipitation continue to increase as we approach the
Wednesday and Thanksgiving time period. While there is still
uncertainty in the models, there appears to be more consistency
so that precipitation chances have increased 30-40%. In general
an an upper level trough is expected to move through the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, while
previous GEFS kept precipitation to south the latest run shows
moving across on Wednesday night into Thursday. There also
appears to be increasing probabilities of wintry mix as well for
areas extending just north of KC metro area through Chillicothe
to Kirksville with snow further north of St Joseph and rain
south across the KC metro to Sedalia. Long range probabilities
show potential for snow or wintry mix 20 to 30% with best
chances at this time on the northern side of KC metro area. For
now, have mentioned the wintry mix within the forecast for
Wednesday and Thursday. As relayed in previously this system
will certainly be monitored and awareness for the potential for
hazardous driving conditions on one of the biggest travel days
of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR will be the primary flight category through the period. Mostly
clear skies are likely to persist through the overnight hours.
West- northwesterly flow will prevail during this TAF interval
with wind gusts over 20 knots possible until diurnal mixing
ceases following sunset. Lighter winds expected during the
daylight hours tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MK
AVIATION...Hayes