927
FXUS63 KEAX 051143
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm and breezy day today. Wind gusts around 25-35 MPH
  are anticipated. Dry and windy conditions do bring marginal
  fire weather concerns.

- Showers and storms are expected to form across KS and NE
  shifting into NW MO overnight. Most rain is expected to remain
  north and west of a line from Lamoni, IA through Topeka, KS.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances spread across the region
  Monday into Tuesday. Coverage looks to be scattered with the
  northern part of the area continuing to see the highest
  chances for precipitation. Severe weather chances remain low.

- More seasonal conditions expected for the early week with
  temperatures expected to warm into the low 80s by the end of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

More of the same for Sunday as above normal temperatures and gusty
winds continue. Ridging across the central CONUS is losing its hold
as a strong trough digs in the intermountain west. The pressure
gradient between these two systems is compressing resulting in warm
dry and windy conditions starting yesterday and looking to continue
through much of the day today. Southerly flow attempts to open up to
the Gulf; however, a cut off low along the LA Gulf coast truncates
this connection keeping strong warm air and moisture advection at
bay. However, clear skies and solar heating will be more than enough
to ascend high temperatures to the upper 80s near 90 degrees. Gusty
winds around 25-35 mph will be the primary indication of the
troughs approach through the day today. Like yesterday,
antecedent dry conditions and near harvest crops and chaff
combined with the gusty winds do present an opportunity for
field and brush fires. Please be cognizant of this if conducting
and agricultural activities. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with the trough are expected to arrive in the region
late tonight into early Monday morning.

The broadscale trough across the intermountain west is made up
of several expansive shortwaves passing through the primary
trough axis. The initial trough can be seen on satellite lifting
across the Black Hills dropping a extensive front which
currently extends into SE CO and NE NM. The high to the east
puts up a valiant resistance to the progressing front adding
more positive tilt; however, the front will be able to progress
into the region by sunset. Aloft, the entrance of a 500mb jet
streak assembles above southeast Nebraska with several pockets
of CVA embedding in the flow. 850mb flow begins to accelerate
tapping into warmer air across west TX. This helps initiate
convection across western IA, northwest MO, southeast NE, and
northern KS primarily after sunset. Coverage of storms is
expected to start isolated becoming scattered with storms trying
to fill a line through the night. Most all precipitable
activity through the night will be mostly concentrated north and
west of a line extending from Lamoni, IA through St. Joseph, MO
out toward Manhattan, KS. An isolated strong storm with gusty
winds and heavy rainfall is possible, but the overall convective
environment is not favorable for severe storms.

The surface front eventually breaks through the resistance of the
high to the east around 1 AM. Models suggest a rather complex
dynamical picture as the upper level components of the cold front
remain stalled across far southeast NE/northwest MO. Complicating
this is an anticipated leeward trough developing across NW TX adding
further frontogenetic forcing. This is going to manifest itself with
storms detaching from the surface cold front becoming post-frontal
and elevated. Sustained CVA aloft and the relatively stationary
position of the 500mb jet streak entrance region with enhancement
from the 850mb low level jet look to maintain these post-frontal
storms.

Through the day Monday the 500mb trough slides eastward spreading
the chances for rain across the region. Coverage is likely to remain
scattered with high chances for rain across NW MO and eastern KS
with more scattered chances across central MO. Convective variables
remain rather weak; however, solar heating ahead of storms` arrival
to central MO does indicate some pockets of instability and with 0-
3km bulk shear around 15-20 knots could present the opportunity for
an isolated strong storm.

Monday`s high temperature map will display the stark change that is
anticipated rain cooled portions of NW MO and NE KS will only reach
the upper 60s to near 70 degrees while areas across the Ozarks and
interior MO reach the mid to upper 80s. By Tuesday, most everyone
will shift back to more expected fall conditions with highs across
the region in the mid-60s to upper 70s. Temperatures trend warmer as
the week continues, reaching back into the low 80s by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Windy VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast
period. Southerly winds are expected to start gusting soon after
sunrise. Gusts are expected to peak around 25 knots. Winds slow
after sunset. A frontal system slowly approaches the region
through the overnight, but is not expected to reach the
terminals by the end of the forecast period with winds only
expected to begin turn at STJ right near the end of the period.
STJ may also see some slight RA chances towards the end of the
period, but ETA of any RA is more likely past this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel