163
FXUS63 KEAX 182251
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions today with triple digit heat indices
  possible. Some uncertainty exists with areas that have
  lingering cloud coverage.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon
  into the evening.

- Additional chances for thunderstorms early Tuesday morning
  into the afternoon.

- More seasonal temperatures return for the second half of this
  week with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

This morning, southerly flow co-located with a low-level jet was
enough to initiate storms in NE. An outflow boundary from these
storms oriented northeast to southwest has pushed through most of
the area. Currently (as of 19Z), the boundary appears to stretch
from Linn (KS) to Adair counties (based on current visible
satellite). This afternoon, H700 vort maxima are anticipated to move
through the area providing additional lift aloft. The outflow
boundary has not significantly impacted temperatures this afternoon,
however lingering cloud coverage from storms this morning has set up
a temperature gradient from eastern KS/northwestern MO to areas east
of I-35. Clearing has taken place through most of the CWA allowing
temperatures to warm with daytime heating. A few areas in
northwestern MO and eastern KS still have significant cloud
coverage. A few aggravated cu fields have already formed along the I-
35 corridor. A surface low emerging out of the Front Range will
increase the pressure gradient to our west. As stronger winds out
west converge with slower winds to the east, this convergence is
anticipated to provide additional lift for thunderstorms this
afternoon into the evening. One cell has already developed just the
north of the CWA, east of I-35 corridor. Some of the convection-
allowing models (CAMs) have been agreeing on another area for
isolated to scattered storm formation along our southeastern fringes
(areas near Randolph, Cooper, and Bates counties). Severe weather is
limited given the weak shear. However, with abundant instability
(3,000-4,000 J/kg) cannot rule a few isolated strong updrafts.

Hi-res models seem to initiate storms later tonight into early
tomorrow morning along a surface cold front extending from a surface
low over the Front Range. Models disagree on the placement of the
surface front adding uncertainty to the forecast. Chances for severe
weather remain low given the very low shear, limited instability,
and overall unfavorable environment for severe storms. The
uncertainty continues as the aforementioned surface low gradually
tracks to the northeast and the cold front seems to stall out and
become more diffuse. Showers and storms could linger into the night,
but confidence is low with how storms will evolve with earlier
morning convection.

Hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices could
possibly linger for areas south of the stalled front on Tuesday.
However, uncertainty exists with frontal placement. For now, areas
south and east of a line from Randolph to Linn counties look to have
the best chances. Confidence is not high enough to issue any heat
headlines at this time.

For Wednesday, much more seasonal conditions are expected as the mid
to upper level ridging retrogrades to the western U.S. and a surface
high descends on the backside of the cold front. Highs are
anticipated to range in the 80s to low 90s. Less humid conditions
will be expected with dew points in the upper 60s approaching 70.
For the second half of this week, mid to upper level ridging over
the western U.S. extending into the Plains and the effects of the
surface high seem to keep precipitation chances away until the
weekend. Saturday, a surface cold front will bring a chance for
thunderstorms and below normal temperatures on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Isolated storms are possible north of I-70 through 2Z.
Thereafter, boundary is expected to gradually shift through the
region overnight with little fanfare. Cluster of storms across
KS tonight may move across the region Tuesday morning, though
convidence in timing and location only high enough for a prob30
at this time. Thereafter, north/northeast flow may lead to
slight increase in wildfire smoke, though visibilty reductions
are not expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ025-032-033-
     039-040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT