181
FXUS63 KEAX 150822
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of rainfall anticipated across NE KS and NW MO
starting this morning and continuing through Wednesday morning.
Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding. A
Flood Watch is in effect for NW MO and NE KS (including the KC
metro) from 1PM Tuesday through 1PM Wednesday.

- Runoff is expected to flow into creeks and streams resulting in
elevated river levels and accelerated flow. Poor drainage and urban
areas may also see some flooding.

- Wide range of temperatures anticipated NW MO and NE KS around
  80 and central MO in the mid 90s. There is the potential for
  some hazardous heat across central and southern MO today and
  tomorrow as heat index values approach 100F-105F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The short term pattern continues to be dominated by turbulent upper
level SW flow aloft and a slow moving surface trough across eastern
CO and western KS. This results in a stationary boundary which
extends along the KS/NE border eastward along the MO/IA border. CAM
guidance shows a broad LLJ extending across the south central Plains
toward the Great Lakes. Downward mixing across the lower level warm
sector is creating an area of surface convergence along the
previously mentioned boundary similar to an exit region of a low
level jet. This also boost warm air advection just enough to keep
some residual surface instability just enough to maintain convective
development across the area.

Cool outflow from storms earlier Monday evening into early Tuesday
morning have stabilized the low levels just enough to gives us a
short break in the precipitable action through the overnight.
However, the low level warm air and moisture advection feeding
directly from the moisture rich Ozarks will be able to replenish the
environment consumed by the previous round of storms. The wild card
in this is will there be enough forcing and instability to initiate
further rounds of precipitation through the overnight (unlikely) or
how will a larger scale cold front from the NW affect convective
initiation. We will focus on the synoptic scale front as it will be
much more influential. Current CAM guidance times this front
approaching far NW MO/NE KS as sunrise approaches.

Daytime heating is expected to accelerate destabilization as warm
air and moisture continue to build northward. Looking vertically the
cold front exhibits a shallow slant backwards such that at 850mb the
front remains in SE NE/SW IA. This creates a wide area of
precipitable development that is expected to envelope much of NW MO
and NE KS as the frontal system slowly moves across the region
through the day today. Multiple upper level shortwaves combined with
moisture convergence and lift across the frontal boundary as well as
steady WAA ahead of the boundary keeps convection ongoing through
much of the day. Guidance favors showers to be mostly elevated
behind the surface front, but ahead of the upper level frontal
features. This combined with limited shear and helicity generally
constrain strong to severe potential; however, the transport of
moisture upward combined with climatically high PWATs (>= 2 inches
across NW MO) yield possibility for training storms with repeated
heavy downpours. QPF of 2-3 inches is anticipated across NW MO with
locally higher amounts possible. This brings about chances for river
and flash flooding across much of northern MO and NE KS as flash
flood guidance sits at 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall per hour and 3
hours respectively. A Flood Watch remains active until Wednesday
afternoon across areas where the greatest probabilities for flooding
impacts are forecasted. This Flood Watch was expanded to cover the
KC metro as storms look to train over the region Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. HREF guidance 25-50 percent chances of
exceeding 2 inches of accumulated rainfall with isolated 20-40
percent chances of exceeding 3 inches of rainfall. Deterministic
guidance has been all over the board with QPF, but given the
potential for training storms with heavy downpours, it felt prudent
to extend the watch southward. CAM guidance does present a
small window Tuesday evening where there is the opportunity for
some isolated strong to severe storms as the synoptic cold front
meets up with a weak boundary from the surface low to the west.
If a storm is able to become surface based ahead of the surface
cold front, there is a chance to get some isolated severe gusts
out of some storms. Increased localized shear as the boundaries
meet could also bring the potential from some hail or tornado,
but chances remain minimal. Heavy rainfall remains the primary
hazard.

Rain continues to linger across the area through Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Looking at temperatures, rain cools down
temperatures into 70s and 80s across NW MO and NE KS with upper 90s
expected across central MO today. This trend continues into
Wednesday where a narrow area of hazardous heat is possible across
Cooper county and points south and west with heat index values
approaching 100-105F. The extended pattern remains fairly active
with the area remaining in the periphery of a synoptic scale high
and a lower level lee trough. This also looks to lift highs back
toward the 90s as the end of the week approaches before a
substantial wave moves through the area this weekend bringing
additional precipitation chances. Additional digging trough keep
storm chances around through Monday evening before ridging dries us
off early to mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase across
northwest Missouri after 09Z this morning building southward
with time along a slow moving cold front. Storms are expected to
become more numerous after 21Z, potentially producing gusty
winds and heavy rainfall. Ceilings are expected to lower north
of the boundary across northern and western Missouri into the
MVFR range, with potential spot in the IFR category.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for MOZ001>006-011>015-020>022-028-029-037.
KS...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for KSZ025-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BT