347
FXUS63 KEAX 081136
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chilly morning with lows in the mid to upper 40s precedes a
  picturesque fall day with temperatures near seasonal averages
  (low 70s).

- Some patchy fog is possible especially in low lying areas or
  areas near bodies of water.

- Temperatures slowly warm over the next few days ascending
  into the mid 80s by the weekend.

- A few chances for showers and thunderstorms in the medium
  term; namely early Friday and late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

What a difference a day makes. Last night, a broad system of showers
and storms transited the region. While storms lingered through much
of the night, not much rain accumulated making only a minor impact
into the seasonal precipitation deficit which is 1.28" below normal
at KSTJ which is the climate site that received the most rainfall
over the past 48 hours. Temperatures ahead of these storms were well
above average in the upper 80s to low 90s. On the backside of these
storms, highs return back toward more what we would expect for
autumn across the region.

Across the vertical spectrum of the atmosphere, the most dominating
feature is a broad high pressure at 850mb. This keeps the night sky
clear allowing for sharp radiational cooling. Low temperatures
overnight are expected to dip into the mid to upper 40s across the
region. These are the lowest temperatures since September 6th. Low
temperatures approach the dew point bringing up the potential for
some fog around the region. Dry air advection from the east and
winds are expected to be just strong enough to curtail fog
development. Any fog that develops is most likely to be patchy and
concentrated into low lying areas as well as areas near bodies of
water which are still quite warm (~69-70 degrees for the MO River
near STJ).

The midlevel high pressure slowly works its way to the east during
which high temperatures reside in the mid to upper 70s. As the
region moves into the western hemisphere of the high, flow shifts
back out of the south opening up the Gulf for warm air and moisture
advection which lifts highs back above normal towards the end of the
week. Highs this weekend rise back into the mid to upper 80s by
Sunday.

500mb ridging builds across the central CONUS which usually points
toward a dry long term pattern; however, more active flow to the
north combined with embedded perturbations within the flow keeps the
pattern from becoming stagnant. The next opportunity for rain
appears early Friday morning. A trough cruises across the northern
CONUS dropping a cold front which acts as the focus for showers and
thunderstorms. The GFS was the most prominent with this feature
focusing on the thermal and moisture boundary between the primary
axis of warm air and moisture advection across the foothills of the
Rockies. An added boost from surface frontogenesis gives just enough
lift for showers and thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance recently
started picking up on this adding some confidence although overall
precipitation potential looks low at this time (~20 percent).
Regardless if these boundary brings precipitation or not, it does
look to reset the warming trend keeping highs out of the 90s. Longer
term guidance points at a stronger frontal boundary moving through
the area Sunday night into Monday yielding slightly higher chances
for precipitation. Beyond that the upper level patterns begins
looking fairly chaotic with multiple perturbations, jet swings, and
temperature fluctuations; all adding limited certainty, but higher
confidence in a more active pattern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Some river fog over STJ is expected to dissipate shortly after
sunrise. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected for the duration
of the remainder of the forecast period. Winds become easterly
around 6-8 knots with some slightly higher intermittent gusts.
Some SCT clouds move in during the overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel