850
FXUS63 KEAX 211728
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record cold temperatures expected this morning.
- Warming trend begins Saturday morning.
- Next notable chances for precipitation expected next
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Continued northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface
makes for a calm and cold night across the area. Cold air advection
continues to lower temperatures with MCI expected to break its
record of 0F early this morning. As the sun rise, winds start turning
back out of the south which start weak warm air adevection back into
the region. This combined with solar heating will enable much of the
area to rise into the mid-20s sans far northern MO who will struggle
to reach 20F. Weak 500mb CVA transits the region this afternoon
which may create a little vertical motion. Although vertical
profiles look to be dry, the DGZ is more or less at the surface; so
it is possible to see some isolated flurries as the wave passes by.

A shift in the pattern begins Saturday morning which results in a
wholesale change of our weather expectation. As the trough moves
through Friday evening, another push of dry cold northwest flow
vacates the 500mb levels. This pushes more active waves to the south
of the region. At the surface, a stout high pressure along the
Carolina coast opens up flow from the southern CONUS. Troughing to
the NW compresses the pressure gradient just enough to accelerate
the low level flow of warm air into the region. On Saturday, this
only manifests itself as highs in low to mid 30s north of I-70 and
mid to upper 30s south of I-70; however, this will be a nice
reprieve from the record breaking cold of prior days.

This pattern doubles down Sunday, A weak front to the west once
again compresses the pressure gradient enough to induce accelerated
warm air advection from the southern Plains. This vaults highs into
the mid-40s to near 50 for Sunday. Dry northwest flow persisting
aloft keeps the skies clear and promotes increased solar heating
which when combined with the antecedent warm air advection pushes
highs Monday and Tuesday into the 60s.

The next meaningful chance of precipitation arrives Wednesday where
a deeper trough is able to dig into the central Plains. Southerly
flow from the previous few days drags just enough moisture northward
ahead of this trough for the frontal lift to tap into and develop
showers. Several uncertainties remain with timing and placement of
potential rainfall with at least sporadic rain chances sticking
around through the days Wednesday and Thursday. Cold air on the
backside of the front suggests temperatures Wednesday evening
dropping back down to near or below freezing which could introduce
some mixed precipitation Wednesday night. Ensemble guidance
maintains 30 to 40 percent chances of measurable precipitation with
a less then 10% chance of wintry precipitation across NE and central
MO early Thursday morning. Again, it is far too early to have much
confidence in that outcome at this time; further analysis and
updated model guidance will refine the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Mid-level system moves through later tonight and may bring some
cloud cover and flurries. Most of this activity is expected to
be south of the terminals, therefore will not place in our 18z
TAFs. High pressure will keep conditions mild.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Krull