410
FXUS63 KEAX 132308
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to warm going into the second half
  of this week with triple digit heat indices anticipated Friday
  through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Quiet conditions anticipated for today with mid to upper level
ridging over the Plains pushing a surface high over the area. As a
result, winds remain calm to light with partly cloudy skies (due to
the development of cu fields) across the region. Going into
Thursday, winds shift out of the south-southeast as the surface high
moves to the east allowing temperatures to be a few degrees warmer
than today getting us near/slightly above seasonal averages.

Early Friday morning, mid to upper level ridging shifts farther to
the east keeping the ridge axis just to the west of the area. A H500
shortwave moves through the flow providing enough lift to initiate
thunderstorms. With better forcing remaining farther north and
stable conditions over our area, thunderstorms are expected to stay
well to the north in DMXs area. The LREF suggests a less than 10%
chance for measurable precipitation along the MO/IA border. During
the afternoon, higher heights with the approaching mid to upper
level ridge and persistent southerly wind flow will allow
temperatures to continue to warm. Highs for Friday are anticipated
to reach the low to mid 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
This will result in triple digit heat indices ranging from 100-105
degrees F. The threat at this time still appears to be fairly
marginal, but heat headlines may still be necessary. There is also a
small amount of uncertainty with areas north of HWY-36 reaching
triple digit heat indices as additional cloud cover from potential
early morning convection farther north could hinder the effects of
diurnal heating.

Going into the weekend, the mid to upper level ridge axis shifts
over the area as winds at the surface remain out of the south.
Saturday will mostly be a repeat of Friday, but a few degrees
warmer. Heat indices will range from 100-105 degrees F. A heat
advisory may be necessary for Saturday also. For Sunday, the mid to
upper level ridge continues its track to the east. Higher heights
will shift to the east, but Sunday will still be hot and humid
(albeit a few degrees cooler than Saturday). Highs for Sunday are
anticipated to range in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will mostly
range from the upper 90s to the low 100s. A heat advisory may still
be necessary for a few counties especially near central MO.

Thunderstorm chances return early next week with a few shortwaves
moving through the flow. Another stout upper level high situates
itself over the southwestern U.S. Additional shortwaves riding
around the northeastern edge of the high could produce a few chances
for storms through the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions are very likely (>85%) at all sites except STJ.
STJ, may see another night of fog/low ceilings due to cold air
draining and steam fog in the river valley. Have not added fog
mention just yet but will see how guidance trends for the 06z
forecast. Otherwise, light winds tonight become light
southeasterly tomorrow with some scattered diurnal CU and high
level clouds moving into the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB