111
FXUS63 KEAX 051859
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
159 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain/showers continue to glide NE across NE Kansas and NW
  Missouri this afternoon. An isolated rumble of thunder not
  completely out of the question, but unlikely.

* Additional, shower and thunder chances overnight tonight into
  Friday morning move across the area. Best chances remain
  along/south of the Missouri River/I-70 areas.

* Uncertain/evolving chances for showers/thunder thru the weekend.
  - Including potential for a few stronger storms

* Temperatures within a couple/few degrees of normal through much of
  the forecast.
  - Mid 70s to low 80s thru weekend into early next week
  - Low to mid 80s mid-late next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Weak mid-level disturbance and isentropic ascent moving through the
broader SW flow has been able to initiate an area of rain/showers.
Radar depictions would suggest rain is more widespread than what is
actually reaching the ground, thanks to easterly/northeasterly low-
level winds introducing a sizable layer of dry air. Some very weak
and shallow embedded convection can be discerned on radar, and will
be the most likely candidates for precipitation reaching the ground.
This idea is bolstered by the fact that only a small handful sites
within the EAX/TOP services areas (AWOS/ASOS stations) have reported
any precipitation over the last couple hours. Best chances should
remain relegated toward the N/NW of the KC Metro. Just enough to get
the ground wet (a couple/few hundredths of an inch), appears to be
the upper end scenarios as this activity continues to drift NE
through the remainder of the afternoon/evening.

Tonight, another opportunity for a round of showers/thunderstorms
remains poised to move across the area. Genesis of this activity
will occur this evening over SW Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles in response to an increasing LLJ. Mean winds and MUCAPE
gradients will drift this activity mostly due eastward overnight
into Friday morning. Locally, surface frontal boundary remains
displaced southward, keeping best instability on the fringe or just
south of the CWA. Marginally supportive deep shear depictions and
nocturnal timing point toward primarily a wind risk, but again
largely displaced south of the CWA. This jives with the current SPC
Day 2 Outlook placing the area in General Thunder and
Marginal/Slight Risk areas into the SGF CWA. Synoptic and CAM
guidance remain in fair/good agreement on this too, lending
increased confidence in the suggested scenario playing out. Expect
largely showers and occasional thunder over the southern half of the
CWA, with PoPs decreasing as you work northward from central
Missouri.

As previous forecaster/discussion noted, confidence into/through the
weekend is limited. In large part thanks to a lack of any large,
dominant, features within the large scale flow pattern tracking
into/through the region. Central CONUS will see a gradual transition
away from SW upper level flow and toward a more zonal to muted NW
flow. During this transition, at least a couple shortwaves are
depicted within synoptic suites, providing additional opportunities
for shower/thunderstorm activity.

For Saturday, details remain in flux, including timing and peak
potential, but suffice it to say that Saturday continues to trend
upward in PoPs, to around 60% currently. Of note, the strongest lift
and chances for PoPs may end up residing just north (core of the mid-
upper shortwave) and south (remnant Southern High Plains convection
tracking eastward). For the time being, don`t see much issue with
the upward trend in PoPs, but does remain difficult in dissecting
details, including potential for a few stronger to severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. For example, a quicker
arrival would be more poised to tamp down strong/severe potential
with less opportunity for diurnal heating/build instability, versus
a slower arrival possibly having the opposite effect. SPC Day 3
Marginal over much of the area appear appropriate.

Sunday poised to see a sizable cutoff upper low drop out of the
Canadian Plains, eventually pushing/dragging a surface front across
the area. This feature appears quicker than previous iterations,
with frontal boundary potentially moving into the area mid-day
Sunday. This would suggest another opportunity for shower and
thunderstorm activity, but with substantial uncertainty including
frontal strength, instability potential, etc. The time frame has
trended upward with PoPs, but remains on the lower end (15%-25%)
within NBM.

Into next week, deterministic synoptic guidance begins to diverge in
their handling and evolution the large upper cutoff low over the
Great Lakes Region. With the area residing within the NW flow, this
carries the potential for additional shortwave activity, however the
majority keep the area dry as a surface high tries to build in. Lack
of cold air with this system keeps temperatures near-normal around
the upper 70s to low 80s. Mid-late week, departing Great Lakes low
allows upper level height rises and ridging to begin to build into
the central CONUS, too allowing temperatures to potentially push
just above normal into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected, but may remain just
VFR for much of the period with potential periods of MVFR
conditions. Additionally, chances for showers/thunder return
overnight, with best chances generally south of the metro sites.
But, with chances to clip MKC/MCI/IXD, do have PROB30 mentions
around/after 09z tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis