834
FXUS63 KEAX 220429
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of storms since this morning has resulted in
flooding. Please do not drive through flooded areas.

- Hazardous heat conditions continue through Thursday. Heat
  indices anticipated to range from 100-110F.

- A few chances for isolated to scattered storms this evening
  into tomorrow night. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Morning thunderstorms continue to linger into the afternoon mainly
for central and western MO. CAMs have handled these storms very
poorly. Ongoing storms across eastern Kansas appear to be fueled by
strong southerly flow increasing convergence aided by remnant
outflow boundaries. Additional storms are currently (as of 18Z)
forming in eastern Kansas and tracking to the south-southeast. Going
forward, these thunderstorms make the rest of the forecast very
challenging. Mid to upper ridging remains dominant over the area
with a surface high over the southeastern U.S. keeping our winds out
of the south. Areas that clear out this afternoon into the early
evening may briefly experience hot and muggy conditions, however
conditions are anticipated to remain under heat advisory criteria.

Later this evening into early tomorrow morning, a weak H500
shortwave moves through the flow bringing a slight chance (below
20%) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly for areas north
of I-70 and west of I-35. A stout cap in place should keep most of
the storms elevated. A weak 15-25 kt low-level jet extends over
eastern Kansas nosing into western Iowa increasing low level
convergence and moisture may allow storms to linger into the later
morning hours. Tall skinny CAPE profiles, PWATs near 2 inches, and
10-12k warm cloud layers suggest the potential for brief, heavy
rainfall that could lead to some localized flooding. A few isolated
sub-severe gusts may also be possible with these storms. Uncertainty
remains high as recent Hi-Res models keep thunderstorm coverage
fairly sparse and the HREF keeps below 20% chance for measurable
precip.

For tomorrow afternoon, the upper level ridge axis moves over the
area with the surface high over the southeastern U.S. keeping our
winds out of the south persistent. This, combined with the eastward
shifting of the H850 thermal ridge will allow temperatures to
increase for tomorrow. Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of
the week with heat indices expected to range from 100-110 F. Again,
there is some uncertainty mainly for northern MO depending on
whether or not convection develops in the morning.

Approaching mid-week, hazardous heat conditions continue with heat
indices in the low triple digits. There is some uncertainty that
heat indices similar to Tuesday will not be realized as the upper
level ridge axis continues its track farther to the east. However,
it will still be hazardously hot as the high over the southeastern
U.S. remains. For Thursday, a very weak surface cold front
associated with a surface cyclone ejecting from the Front Range adds
even more uncertainty to the hazardous heat conditions. Depending on
the timing and placement, the front could slightly cool temperatures
keeping them below heat advisory criteria.

For the weekend, mid to upper level ridging looks to build into the
area once again. This, combined with the surface high remaining in
the southeast will keep winds out of the south hinting at the
potential for temperatures above seasonal averages. Heat headlines
may be necessary once again this weekend, however being this far
out confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The main concern for aviators will be the chc for lgt
fog/stratus bringing MVFR conds btn 10Z-14Z. Otrw expect VFR
conds with bkn-ovc high clouds expected thru 14Z-15Z when they
will sct out. Winds will be out of the SE btn 5-10kts thru
14Z-1%z when winds will shift to the south and increase to
10-15kts with afternoon gusts to 20-25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday
     for MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday
     for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73