151
FXUS63 KEAX 230400
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1000 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues, with highs approaching 60 by Monday,
  and potentially as warm as the mid 60s for some locations by
  Tuesday.

- Dry conditions generally expected through the end of the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights and winds shows
northwesterly flow remaining in place in the mid levels, but
with 850 mb winds out of the west and advecting in warmer 850 mb
air across Kansas, along with 10 to 15 mph south southwesterly
winds, temperatures this afternoon have finally rebounded above
freezing after spending essentially a full 7 days below
freezing. Winds become light by this evening, and with mostly
clear skies, this should allow for temperatures to drop into the
low to mid 20s overnight tonight.

The warming trend continues into tomorrow and intensifies into
Monday as a thermal ridge builds over the region from the west.
Highs for Monday afternoon are forecast to reach the mid 50s
across NE Missouri to as warm as the lower 60s over the KC metro
and points west/southwest. On Monday night, a shortwave trough
(clipper type system) is progged to move quickly out of Montana
and through the Upper Midwest. It is possible that this could
yield some very light rain or drizzle over northeastern
Missouri, but for now models keep it north of our region.

Temperatures only increase further a few degrees for Tuesday
thanks in part due to some increased warm air advection out
ahead of another shortwave trough coming across the central High
Plains. Highs on Tuesday afternoon are forecast to reach the low
to mid 60s for most locations. This shortwave trough is
projected to deepen as it moves through Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and will also send a cold front through the region.
This will act to knock down temperatures for Wednesday (although
still above seasonal normals), and will bring in yet another
slight chance for some light rain toward NE Missouri.
Temperatures look to rebound a few degrees by Friday, although
at this time the NBM shows quite a bit of spread for MaxT at MCI
(56 degrees to 65 degrees as the 25th to 75th percentiles).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 959 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Mostly clear skies will lead to VFR conditions overnight. Winds
have slowly decreased to below 10 kts at most TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Krull