601
FXUS63 KEAX 050505
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier conditions today and tomorrow.

- Shower and storm chances return late Thursday into Friday. No
  severe expected.

- A few chances (below 40%) for showers this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

As the northeast-southwest oriented cold front continues to shift to
the southeast of our area, winds have shifted to a northerly
direction allowing temperatures to be noticeably cooler than Monday
(which had highs in the mid to upper 80s). High pressure to our west
becomes somewhat stagnant allowing for quiet conditions today and
tomorrow. Winds remain out of the north-northwest which result in
fairly stable temperatures. High temperatures are anticipated to
range in the mid to upper 70s today and Thursday.

Late Thursday into early Friday, slight disturbances at H500 result
in leeward cyclogenesis just to the east of the Four Corners Region.
A H850 low-level jet intensifies out ahead of the surface low and
noses into northwestern OK. This will bring showers and storm
chances late Thursday into early Friday morning across the area with
the brunt of the rain staying south of I-70. Additional rainfall may
further aggravate flooding along the Marais Des Cygnes River. Severe
weather is not anticipated as shear and instability values remain
meager in addition to better forcing staying south of the area.

For the start of the weekend, a H500 shortwave moves to our north
through IA delivering rain chances for areas north of I-70 early
Saturday morning. Simultaneously, the aforementioned surface
low will push into northeastern OK. Showers developing along the
warm front extending into southern MO will provide a chance for
rain for areas south of I-70. Sunday, a large upper level low
descending from Canada into Minnesota pushes a cold front
through the area which could provide another round of precip
chances Sunday morning into the afternoon. For the weekend, no
severe is expected as instability continues to look limited and
shear looks marginal.

Northwest flow continues on the backside of the upper level low
which will lead to below normal temperatures for this time of year.
Tuesday as the low over the Great Lakes begins to track to the
northeast, a shortwave within the large upper level low
circulation brings a potential for precip on Tuesday. However,
confidence is low due to model uncertainty so decided to keep
the forecast dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

An air mass with more low level saturation bringing IFR
CIGs to KDMO and KVER is expected to slowly migrate westward
through the overnight hours. This combined with an approaching
disturbance across SW KS will result in lowered CIGs through
the overnight. CIGs are not expected to get as low as
observations across central MO, but there is the potential for
some CIGs lowering to around 1500-2000ft. Minor VIS impacts
from BR/HZ are possible.

After sunrise winds accelerate slight from the NE. Sky coverage
becomes more SCT at low VFR with OVC from smoke HZ aloft.
Chances for showers have shifted becoming more likely just after
this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel