873
FXUS63 KEAX 030856
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue diminish
  through the day. Sensitive groups may still be impacted.

- Pleasant, fall-like conditions continue today and tomorrow. Warming
  trend expected to begin Tuesday.

- Hotter, more humid conditions return for the second half of
  next week. Triple digit heat indices possible mainly for areas
  south of I-70.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

This morning, a line of storms over central KS (as of 08Z) track to
the east-southeast gradually approaching our area. As these storms
enter eastern KS they will encounter a much more stable environment.
Some of the current hi-res models bring remnants of this line into
western MO around 20-22Z, however due to the weak flow and mostly
stable conditions, storms are anticipated to weaken significantly
over the next few hours. If precipitation is able to hold together,
eastern KS and western MO could see some light rain late this
morning into the afternoon.

Lingering smoke from Canadian wildfires could result in a hazy look
to the sky for today. Sensitive groups of people may still be
impacted during periods of outside activity. The effects from the
smoke continue to decrease as models suggest the worst of it is over
for our area keeping the heavier smoke concentrations in
eastern NE and western IA. Otherwise, another pleasant day
anticipated with a mid to upper level ridge residing over the
southwestern U.S. and a surface high over the Great Lakes Region
keeping our winds fairly weak and out of the east. This will
allow for cooler, drier temperatures with highs in the mid 70s
to low 80s.

For the start of the work-week, expect mostly a repeat of today. A
weak H500 shortwave moves through the flow which could result in a
few thunderstorms initiating to our west. As we remain mostly
stable, storms are anticipated to stay to our west. However, a few
brief storms cannot be ruled out mainly for eastern KS and western
MO during the morning hours into the early afternoon.

The mid to upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. builds and
shifts to the northeast inching closer to our area on Tuesday.
Simultaneously, our winds shift out of the south allowing us to kick
off a warming trend. Highs are anticipated to range in the 80s with
a few areas near central MO possible reaching the low 90s.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, thunderstorm chances return as a H500
shortwave riding along the northeastern periphery of the ridge in
the southwest U.S. moves through the flow. A H850 low-level jet
intensifies over central KS aiding in low-level convergence and
moisture transport. This could allow storms to hold together
long enough for eastern KS and western MO to see a few storms.
If storms make it to our western counties a few sub-severe wind
gusts would be the main threat as storms collapse. With weak
instability, limited shear, and an overall unfavorable
environment, storms will likely dissipate during the morning
hours as they move deeper into our area.

For Wednesday, temperatures increase to near or a little above
seasonal averages with the mid to upper ridging continuing its track
farther to the east and persistent southerly winds. Highs for
Wednesday will range in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s.

By the second half of the week, triple digit heat indices return
mainly for areas south of I-70. The NBM is continuing to hint at the
possibility for heat headlines, however coverage 105 F heat indices
is more isolated rather than widespread. We will continue to monitor
trends to determine whether or not heat headlines will be necessary.
As far as rain chances, a few shortwaves move along the northeastern
edge of the ridge in the southwest U.S. which could result in a few
thunderstorms, however there is uncertainty depending on how far to
the northeast the influence of the ridge extends. If the ridge
retrogrades farther to the southwest, there could be a few chances
for rain with vort maxima moving through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Smoke continues to gradually disperse around the terminals with
most seeing only minor VIS impacts. HZ continues to settle in
the river valley by STJ keeping MVFR VIS through the morning. SE
winds accelerate tomorrow morning with some gusts further
dispersing smoke. Otherwise higher level haze looks to continue
through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel