155
FXUS63 KEAX 021739
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A stray shower is possible mainly this morning south of I-70.

* A cold front is expected to sweep through the region tomorrow
  afternoon creating the potential for severe thunderstorms.  Best
  timing for severe weather looks to be from 3 -10 PM.

* Cooler conditions expected to continue into the weekend as a
  reinforcing cold front moves through the region Friday morning.  A
  few storms are possible with this boundary as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Water Vapor Imagery as of 08Z shows a weak short wave across eastern
Kansas slowly sliding southeast.  With this wave still lingering
around the region, could see a light shower this morning mainly
south of I-70 this morning.  Subsidence to the north of this wave
has lead clearing and the development of areas of fog across eastern
Nebraska. As clearing oozes south over the next few hours, could see
some locally dense fog work into far northern Missouri. This fog is
expected to dissipate towards 15Z.

Lingering mid-level moisture today may slow surface heating, but
still expecting adequate mixing to lead to temperatures in the upper
70s F. Will have to keep an eye on the potential for fog tonight
with light winds and mostly clear skies.

Cold front near the North Dakota/Canadian border this morning is
expected to surge south arriving across the region Wednesday
afternoon.  Models are still showing some variability in the amount
of instability that develops ahead of the front, but mean SB CAPE
looks to range from 1250-1500 J/kg.  Increasing speed shear aloft
through the afternoon could lead to 30-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear
leading to clusters of storms that may organize into supercells.
Moisture pooling along the front may lead to precipitable water
values near 1.6-1.75".  While storm movement near 30 knots should be
adequate to prevent flooding, training of storms may lead to
localized rainfall amounts in excess of 1".

Cooler conditions will follow behind the front with temperatures 10-
15 degrees below normal Thursday.  A secondary cold front is
expected to sweep through the region Friday morning. There is the
potential for an elevated storm or two with the passage of the front
Friday morning.

The cooler conditions look to last through the better part of the
weekend.  Models suggest a trough may try to develop across the
Plains on Sunday, but there are latitudinal differences among the
solutions on where the disturbance may develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the TAF sites, ahead
of showers and thunderstorms in the periods immediately outside
of this issuance (through 18z Wed). In the immediate term,
scattered, weakening light rain/showers continue to glide SE out
of NE Kansas/NW Missouri. Currently in the vicinity of KSTJ,
this activity has struggled to produce much to the ground with
bases >6-7kft and expectation for weakening trend to continue
as it approaches the KC Metro sites. Thus, have kept all sites,
including KSTJ dry. Otherwise, light/variable winds into this
evening before westerly winds establish themselves late in the
TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Curtis