667
FXUS63 KEAX 120350
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1050 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures continue through much of the next week.

* Small chance of precipitation Monday as a cool front moves
  through the region. Precipitation generally looks to be 0.1"
  or less in most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Amplified pattern across the lower 48 with deepening trough across the
Pacific NW, a trough across the eastern US and a upper level ridge
extending from west Texas into the Upper Midwest.  The upper ridge
will lead to well above normal temperatures ahead of the approaching
trough from the the Pacific NW.  Pressure gradient is increasing
across the area and will likely keep surface winds in the 5-10 knot
range through the overnight.  These winds will keep the atmosphere
mildly mixed, and with 925 hpa in the 17-19 C range, expect
temperature to remain 10-15 degrees above normal.

High temperatures will be closer to 15-20 degrees above normal on
Sunday as thermal ridge builds into the central plains with high
temperatures in the 80s.  Stronger winds aloft are expected to mix
to the surface creating gusty conditions through the afternoon
hours.

Open wave trough approaching from the west is pushed north as it
works east, but trailing cold front is expected to build south
through the region early Monday morning. Limited instability/shear
is expected to limit shower potential. Ensemble probabilities
rapidly decrease for rainfall amounts above 0.1".

Canadian high pressure builds into the Northern Plains on Tuesday,
but shifts east Wednesday leading to warming temperatures as the
ridge tries to recover.  Models still continue to hint at a few
ridge riders throughout the week, but the focus for any
precipitation looks to be largely north (Iowa and Nebraska
north).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Light
southeast winds overnight will veer to the south and increase to
10-15 kts with gusts of 25-30kts tomorrow late morning through
the afternoon. Winds decrease with loss of daytime heating but
will remain 5-10 kts through 06Z. A weak front will move into NW
MO late in the forecast. It looks more likely that this will
lead to a wind shift after 06Z Monday from north to south as
the front moves through. It may also bring a few showers/storms
between 06 and 12Z Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB