115
FXUS63 KEAX 310836
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
236 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues mainly through the morning hours, shifting east of
  the area this afternoon.

- Well above normal temperatures through the weekend, culminating in
  highs in the 60s on Sunday.

- Forecast remains highly uncertain next week regarding
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Cutoff upper low is moving overhead as of 08Z. Based on water vapor
imagery, there appears to be two distinct vorticity centers. One
moving into eastern KS/ western MO and another over the Red River
southwest of the local area. At the surface, there is an area of low
pressure over northern/northeastern MO and another low pressure
center with the southwestern vorticity center. Overall, the entire
system will slowly track east through the day today. But the
deformation area precipitation will primarily be focused across
northern Missouri before shifting east-northeastward with time. The
majority of the precipitation has already fallen with this system,
with only a few tenths of an inch expected between 12Z and 18Z. That
said, runoff from the 1-2" inches of rain may lead to some of our
river points to rise into flood stage today.

Once this system moves east of the area, quasi-zonal flow will begin
to develop across the CONUS. Models continue to show the strong
upper-level jet mainly across the northern half of the CONUS. But
this upper-level pattern will favor a strengthening lee trough in
the High Plains. This will lead to southerly flow through the
Central and Eastern Plains and help temperatures warm into the
middle 40s to middle 50s on Saturday and the middle 50s to middle
60s on Sunday.

From there, the forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Ensemble
clusters and mean 500mb heights suggest broad upper ridging across
the CONUS. This would tend to favor above normal temperatures.
However, deterministic models show a frontal boundary in the vicinity
with high variability in timing its progression southward.
Teleconnections show a positive NAO is likely through early
February. However, AO is much more uncertain, especially later
in its ensemble plot. This pattern suggest a strong subtropical
jet will continue, which is essentially what the ensemble mean
upper jet looks like. But with a weak AO that may trend
negative, that opens the middle of the country to possible cold
air intrusions. And that is what the deterministic guidance
indicates. Looking at ensemble spread for surface temperatures,
there is naturally massive spread. Monday shows a roughly 10
degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This climbs
to 15-20 degrees on Tuesday, and 20-30 degrees by Wednesday.
Just to further showcase this variability, the southern half of
the forecast area has a >50% chance of seeing highs above 55 on
Wednesday. While far northern MO has a >50% of seeing highs
below 32. This spread actually decreases later in the week with
the overall trend showing colder temperatures prevailing. These
timing issues with the cold air will only be able to be resolved
in the coming days as models trend to a more common solution.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Mixture of LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions continue across north-central
Missouri tonight with rain concentrated mainly north of I-70 as of
520Z. Rain expected to linger across I-29 and I-35 until late
tomorrow morning. Areas south of highway 50 may just receive light
rain/drizzle now through 17Z. Rain to continue east of highway 65
until 13-15Z. Winds to increase between 15-22Z behind the low.
Gusts over 25 knots will be possible in during said timeframe
across the region. Models show ceilings less than 1,000 feet
traversing into central Missouri by 17-18Z, with eastern Kansas
and western Missouri possibly returning to VFR beforehand.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MOZ005>008-016-017-024-025-032-033-040-046.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hayes