518
FXUS63 KEAX 242258
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below seasonal temperatures anticipated across the area this
  week with highs mostly in the 70s.

- A few chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
  Monday primarily for southeastern KS and west central MO.

- Better chances for more widespread showers and storms return
  for the second half of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Mid to upper level ridging remains dominant in the southwestern U.S.
as a closed upper low continues its track to the east just south of
the Hudson Bay Region. At the surface, a high centered over the
Northern Great Plains will continue to move south keeping our winds
out of the north-northwest. A few elevated storms sparked this
morning over our area with a passing H700 vort max colocated with a
just enough moisture. They have not produced much regarding
precipitation due to the very dry layer near the surface. For the
rest of today, highs for will mostly range in the 70s with a few
locations near central MO approaching the low 80s.

For early Monday morning, there is a chance (up to 40%) for a few
isolated to scattered storms mainly for extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO as a H700 shortwave tracks to the southeast over the
KS/OK border. No severe weather is anticipated with limited
instability, very low shear, and generally unfavorable environment
for severe storms. As far as temperatures, highs are anticipated to
range in the 70s across the area. A few areas near southeastern KS
and west central MO could stay in the low 70s with increased cloud
coverage from potential morning convection hindering the effects of
daytime heating.

Dry conditions anticipated for Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s.
As we approach mid-week, another H700 shortwave traverses the
northeastern edge of the mid-level ridge to our west bringing
another chance for thunderstorms primarily for eastern KS and west
central MO Wednesday into early Thursday. For now, there are no
strong signals for severe weather. The aforementioned surface high
that descended from the north will track to the east of our area
allowing our winds to reorient to the south. This, combined with mid
to upper level ridging moving over the area will spark a warming
trend for the second half of this week. High temperatures are
anticipated to stay mostly in the 70s across the area. Additional
chances later for precipitation late this week could influence
temperatures a few degrees with increased cloud coverage impeding
the effects of diurnal heating.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Light winds and VFR conditions, with just scattered to broken
high-level clouds (>10K ft AGL) are expected through the
forecast. Winds should be light and variable overnight, then
trend to the northeast to east tomorrow, remaining below 10kts.
Cloud bases should initially be between 10K - 12K ft through the
night and then become 15K+ tomorrow. It looks dry enough in the
lower-levels to prevent even diurnal CU at the TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB