531
FXUS63 KEAX 091128
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and humid conditions are expected the first half of the
  week. Greatest confidence for persistent dangerous heat is
  across central Missouri, where a extreme heat warning has been
  issued through Wednesday evening. Farther north, there is less
  confidence in high temperatures, and as such, have taken a day
  by day approach to headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Broad upper level ridge across the southern US is going to lead to
heat building into the region for at least the first half of the
week; however, a series of disturbances will challenge the potential
of reaching advisory level heat Monday - Wednesday.  A strong low
level jet has developed across the Central Plains extending from the
panhandle of TX into southwest Iowa.  This has lead to the
development of elevated storms rooted somewhere near 700 mb.  These
storms are largely expected to remain sub severe through the morning
hours, pushing southeast in time.  Rainfall amounts are expected to
be generally fairly light, less than a quarter of an inch, but in
areas where there is some training, could see rainfall amounts
approach an inch.  Storms should largely push southeast into the
morning hours and weaken after sunrise leading to gradual clearing.

00Z soundings from both SGF and LZK displayed abundant moisture
in the near surface layer. Elevated showers this morning should
also provide additional fuel leading to muggy conditions with
solar heating today. With expected high temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s, expect heat indices to warm towards
105 F this afternoon. Have coordinated a heat advisory
regionwide for today, with the exception of central Missouri
where limited relief from the heat is expected until mid-week.
As a result, have an excessive heat warning beginning today and
continuing into Wednesday evening.

Shortwave building east along the northern periphery of the upper
ridge may interact with the low level jet again tonight leading to
more elevated showers and storms across the region. Residual cloud
cover/elevated showers on Monday leads to uncertainty of high
temperatures across northern Missouri, and as a result, don`t have
heat headlines across northern Missouri beyond today- despite the
potential.

An additional wave on Tuesday leads to the potential for additional
thunderstorms across northern Missouri.  Where the convection does
not develop, hot and humid conditions are expected to persist (most
likely across central MO).  Northern Missouri remains outlooked
Tuesday and Wednesday for the potential of a strong storm or two.

A stationary boundary to the north is expected to push south on
Wednesday leading to more temperate and seasonal conditions through
the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Elevated showers and storms
are expected to push east across the region by 15Z; thereafter,
gusty south-southwest winds expected the remainder of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037-038.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ039-040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-102>105.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT