976
FXUS63 KEAX 231155
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm. Above normal temperatures
  continue through the week.

- Slight chances of rain across far northern and central MO
  remain for Wednesday. Otherwise the week looks to be dry and
  mild.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Northwest flow aloft and midlevel ridging present another dry and
mild day across the region. Surface winds remain out of the
southwest which continues to advect warm air into the region.
Yesterday`s temperatures observations showed some over performance
of temperatures compared to models last night. Therefore, forecast
highs have been skewed a little toward the warmer side of the
ensemble range. Above normal temperatures continue for the next
several days with today reaching the 50s for most. Monday, some
areas will see highs eclipse 60 degrees with everyone else being
near 60.

The upper level pattern remains persistent over the next few days.
Northwest upper level flow keeps advecting drier and relatively
cooler air into the region. A surface trough to the south combined
with broadscale ridging across the souther CONUS hampers the flow of
moisture into the region. Midweek, a more substantial wave is
expected to dig across the northern Plains. This triggers a leeward
cyclone to develop in the Dakotas and may bring our next chances for
precipitation Wednesday. Overall chances look quite low.
Deterministic guidance has been fairly temperamental when it comes
to potential rain coverage across the area. Some runs it has rain;
some runs it does not. Ensemble guidance is maintaining a 25-40%
probability of measurable rainfall particularly along and northeast
of a line extending from Maryville, MO through Columbia. Timing of
the wave has accelerated which looks to limit shower potential to
the daylight hours Wednesday. The good news is that precipitation
will likely be out of the area once temperatures fall back toward
freezing Wednesday night behind a cold front.

Extended guidance shows above normal temperatures continuing. Even
the lowest 25 percentile of the forecast temperature range remains
above normal. Synoptic guidance shows the upper level pattern
becoming a little more active starting late week. Stout ridging
across the SW CONUS looks to break down opening up the flow of
Pacific waves. This, in turn, opens up more opportunities to receive
some needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions persist through the period. Winds remain
generally out of the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel