609
FXUS63 KEAX 221731
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday
    *A few isolated strong to marginally severe storms possible

- Multiple rounds for showers and storms continue Wednesday into
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 452 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Light returns on radar to the northwest over southeast Nebraska this
morning will result in a chance for a few sprinkles during the
morning commutes mainly north of HWY-36. Minimal impacts are
expected. As we advect warmer temperatures from the southwest at
H850, highs for today are expected to range in the upper 70s to low
80s which keeps us a few degrees above normal for this time of year.

This evening, a 25-35 kt low-level jet sets up increasing moisture
transport. A series of shortwaves moving through the area will
result in a chance for showers and storms tonight into early
Wednesday morning mainly for eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Storms
are expected to develop in central to eastern Kansas and move east
into Missouri. The potential for a few storms to become strong to
marginally severe exists given the environment. Bulk shear
values range from 30-40 kts and MUCAPE values range from
500-1000 J/kg. The main hazards look to be strong to damaging
winds and hail. SPC has placed majority of our area in a
marginal risk. A cap in place over Missouri could inhibit
convection as storms move farther east. Deterministic models
disagree on timing yielding some uncertainty in the forecast.
The NAM pushes the timing farther back to late Wednesday
morning/afternoon while the GFS brings in the brunt of the
storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Models seem to disagree
due to uncertainty of which shortwave will result in
convection.

Multiple shortwaves move through the area for the second half of
this week. Daily rain chances remain Wednesday through Sunday. Bulk
shear values and CAPE values stay unimpressive through the this
timeframe therefore, no severe weather is expected at this time.
Thursday, a few areas near central Missouri and eastern Kansas have
been placed in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. A line from
Pilot Grove to Sheridan and west has been placed in a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall.

A shortwave ejecting from a mid to upper-level low in the western
U.S. will result in a surface trough developing along the eastern
Rockies. Ahead of the developing low, increasing shear and
instability will yield the chances for severe weather on Monday. SPC
has placed our area in a slight risk for severe weather for
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
A low chance for thunderstorms exists mainly after 0z this
evening. Confidence remains low for thunderstorms so have
included a PROB30. STJ has the highest chance of being impacted
by storms this evening. Winds will remain out of the southwest
today, shifting to the south overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...WFO EAX