475
FXUS63 KEAX 101136
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Well-below normal/seasonal temperatures through Tuesday morning

* Warmer temperatures expected Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures
  continue to warm into the weekend.
  - Tue-Thur - Highs in the mid 50s to 60s- Fri/Sat - Highs in the
  upper 60s to mid 70s

* Chances (20-60%) for showers arrive late Saturday into Sunday.
  A few isolated thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Our cold snap is in full swing with a closed mid to upper low just
south of the Great Lakes Region and stout mid to upper level ridging
over the western U.S. At the surface, high pressure remain dominant
over the Great Plains which has resulted in fairly weak
north/northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies. This has allowed
early morning lows to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday
morning, yielding the coldest temperatures we will see all week. Low
temperatures this morning will stay mostly in the upper teens to low
20s. Wind chills will range in the single digits to the preteens,
making outdoor conditions very uncomfortable for most. High
temperatures today will range in the upper 30s to low 40s. Later
this evening into tonight, the surface high tracks to the southeast
of our area reorienting our winds out of the south/southwest which
will spark a much need warming trend. This will allow temperatures
Tuesday morning to be warmer than this morning. However, early
morning lows for Tuesday will still be below freezing, staying in
the 20s with the KC Metro in the low 30s. For the afternoon,
temperatures warm significantly with increased southerly flow
resulting in highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. This, coupled with
relative humidity values in the low to mid 30s could result in
slightly elevated fire weather concerns mainly for areas south of I-
70. But, there are some uncertainties with the forecast. A H500
shortwave pushes a weak surface low and partnering front through the
area. Given the low amount of moisture with the front, precip
chances remain non-existent, but additional cloud coverage could
impede the effects of daytime heating, adding some uncertainty for
high temperatures. If cloud coverage were to linger a little longer
than anticipated, highs could possibly stay in the low to mid 50s.
For now, guidance suggests cloud coverage will be progressive enough
for highs to reach the low 60s.

Higher mid to upper level heights associated with the approaching
ridge will allow temperatures to continue to warm through the rest
of this week. Well-above normal temperatures return by Friday with
widespread highs in the 70s. For the weekend, the mid to upper level
ridge continues its track to the east as troughing pushes through
the Canadian provinces. A closed low approaches our area from the
southwest returning precip chances (20-60%) across the area late
Saturday into Sunday. There may be just enough instability for a few
isolated thunderstorms, but for now, severe is not likely given a
generally unfavorable environment (weak CAPE profiles, present CIN,
and fairly stable lapse rates).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Conditions anticipated to continue improving as a band of MVFR
clouds (seen well on satellite) shifts south and dissipates over
the next few hours. Winds will stay fairly weak and out of the
north/northwest through the evening as skies clear out. Winds
will shift to a more southerly direction late tonight into early
tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier