343
FXUS63 KEAX 230518
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1118 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures this weekend.

- A cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday with
  temperatures dropping nearly 20F degrees across the area.

- Next chance for precipitation (25%-45%) will be Wednesday
  into Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A surface high to our northwest over the NE/IA border has kept our
winds out of the northwest. Steady CAA will continue to keep
temperatures a few degrees below seasonal normals across the region.
Visible satellite as of 3 PM shows some thin upper-level stratus
moving into the area from the northwest, which is expected to
continue through the evening. A deck of low clouds has remained
across north central MO through most of the day keeping high
temperatures a few degrees cooler than western MO. Temperatures so
far have reached the mid 40s and near 50 across western MO with
north central MO in the upper 30s. The combination of clearing
skies and weak winds will allow for radiational cooling will help
keep temperatures cooler tonight. Low temperatures tomorrow morning
are anticipated to range from the upper 20s to low 30s.

Tomorrow, as the surface high moves through the area, winds will
gradually shift to the south. Subtle height rises associated with
WAA will mark the beginning of a warming trend. High temperatures
for tomorrow are expected to be roughly 5-10F degrees warmer than
today. Sunday, WAA continues out ahead of a strong cold front as we
maintain southerly winds. Current guidance suggests temperatures
around 60-65F degrees at H850. With deep mixing expected through the
day, high temperatures for Sunday are anticipated to range in the
60s across the area (which is 10-15F degrees above seasonal
normals).

Sunday evening into overnight Monday, the aforementioned cold front
is expected to move through the area. The NBM is keeping most of the
area dry with a sprinkle or two possible for central MO. The GEFS is
slightly more bullish on rain potential but confidence is not high
enough to place precipitations chances higher than 10% for north
central Missouri.

After the cold front moves through, expect high temperatures for
Monday to be roughly 15-20F degrees cooler than Sunday`s high
temperatures which is below seasonal normals. Tuesday, a surface
ridge moves in behind the cold front bringing cooler temperatures
and dry conditions. Expect high temperatures in the 40s across the
area.

Our attention shifts to Wednesday into Thanksgiving as broad
troughing moves through the area. Broadscale lifting will give us a
chance (25%-45%) for precipitation, some areas may have a wintry mix
mainly across portions of northern MO.  There is still some
uncertainty in the forecast as model trends have not been
consistent. The 8-14 day forecast shows temperatures to remain below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR will be the prevailing flight category through this TAF period.
High clouds between 20-25kft will be filtering in around 10-13Z,
remaining VFR. Winds start off light and variable at the terminals,
before becoming northeasterly at around 5-10 knots in the early
morning hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Hayes