391
FXUS63 KEAX 201136
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
  north of boundary across the region.  Stronger storms would be
  capable of very heave rainfall and gusty winds.

* Heat is expected to become more established across the region
  on Tuesday, lasting through at least Thursday.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

As of 11Z, MCV to the northwest of Manhattan KS is working east
and is expected to interact with boundary near highway 36.
Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous along the
highway 36 corridor after 14Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Waves of disorganized clusters of convection have developed on the
northern edge of surface ridge centered over the Gulf Coast. These
storms have produced sporadic gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall
with precipitable water values exceeding 2". MCS extending from
western Iowa into northeast Missouri has produced 1.5 to 2.5 inches
over the last few hours across portions of Putnam, Schuyler and
Adair Counties. With additional rounds of storms expected today into
tonight capable of additional heavy rainfall, have elected to issue
a flood watch for northeast Missouri.

Broad low level jet has developed east of elongated trough extending
from eastern Montana into western Kansas. Areas of convection have
produced outflow that is working through the KC Metro as of 8Z. This
boundary is expected to eventually stall, and potentially attempt to
lift back to the north today serving as a southern edge for
additional storm development throughout the day. Areas north of the
outflow boundary will likely not warm as much as areas further
south.  South of the boundary, temperatures in the 90s and dew
points in the 70s are expected to lead to heat indicies of 100-105 F.

00Z NAMNEST appears to have a north bias with the precipitation
today, but suggests additional storms capable of very heavy rainfall
and gusty winds would try to develop this evening along the
lingering outflow boundary as low level jet redevelops across the
central plains. Am concerned about the heavy rain potential for
tonight, as warm cloud depths near 12K feed, and MBE vectors of less
than 10 knots suggest very efficient storms capable 2+"/hour
rainfall that may lead to slow moving or back building storms along
the boundary.

With additional storms expected tonight, models have trended cooler
across northern Missouri Monday.  Given the chance of reaching
excessive heat criteria looks to be less on Monday, moved the start
time for the excessive heat watch across northern Missouri to
Tuesday. At that time, the ridge looks to strengthen, pushing the
convective chances north leading to hot and humid conditions across
the region. Once the ridge expands north, expect hot and humid
conditions to last through at least Thursday as a slow moving cold
front tries to approach from the north and west. The amount of
forcing with the front is uncertain at this point, with model
uncertainty relatively high for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Another low confidence forecast with very complex scenario
across the region. MCV near MHK Manhattan KS as of 11z is
expected to approach the Missouri state line ~14-15Z. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a remnant
boundary along the highway 36 corridor, including the KSTJ
terminal. Additional thunderstorms may try to build south with
time, potentially impacting at least the northern KC metro
towards 18Z. Additional storms are expected towards 00Z Monday
that will likely lead to locally heavy rainfall, but location of
heavy rainfall is uncertain at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ007-008-016-017-
     024-025.
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...BT
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT