211
FXUS63 KEAX 190500
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers/storms across northwestern MO overnight into
tomorrow morning (30-45%). Some storms could be strong, but are
expected to remain subsevere.

- Another round of showers/storms likely (60-75%) tomorrow evening
into Sunday morning. Primary hazards include heavy rainfall and
severe hail/winds.

- Temperatures cooling going into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Earlier fog over northern Missouri has eroded away this afternoon,
with temperatures across the area climbing into the 90s as daytime
heating has commenced. A warm frontal boundary draped across north-
central Missouri is projected to continue pushing northward through
the rest of the afternoon, with agitated cumulus over central
Missouri following upstream. While the presence of this cumulus
suggests the presence of atmospheric instability, overall
probabilities for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening remain low, with greater synoptic forcing for ascent located
further north with a surface cyclone and shortwave trough positioned
over the Plains.

This cyclone and associated shortwave will be the primary driver for
storm chances overnight tonight. The greater focus for any severe
activity resides closer to the immediate vicinity of the synoptic
front/surface cyclone and forcing along the intensifying low-level
jet. However, recent CAM guidance continues to indicate additional
convection popping up along a boundary that ejects off the primary
line towards the southeast, bringing higher chances (30-45%) of
precipitation to an area generally along/northwest of I-35 by early
morning tomorrow. The overall environment doesn`t look incredibly
favorable for the development of severe storms with this activity,
with decreasing instability in the mixed-layer and marginal shear as
the night progresses. However, stronger storms with heavy rainfall
and lightning remain possible.

By tomorrow morning, activity looks to taper off across northern
Missouri with the retreating low-level jet and shortwave trough
towards the Great Lakes. However, another shortwave trough will
reinvigorate the atmosphere for a renewed chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the evening/overnight via enhanced warm/moist
transport across the forecast area as the shortwave lifts northeast
across Missouri. This, coupled with the synoptic-scale cold front
lingering behind the previous system pushing southeastward, will
provide ample instability and ascent for the development of
strong/severe storms. However, shear looks to remain just marginal
(~25-30 kts) alongside mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7 degC/km,
which brings into question the ability of storm updrafts to organize
and maintain intensity. With these factors in mind, still
anticipating a severe hail/wind threat with any storms that are able
to organize and maintain intensity, but confidence in widespread
severe storms is not high. Another caveat to consider with activity
tomorrow is the potential for heavy rainfall to create some
hydrological concerns. Some guidance indicates that thunderstorms
could train along the boundary with parallel moisture transport
vectors in the low-levels, which, coupled with climatologically high
PWATs around 2 inches, enhances efficient/prolonged rainfall in
storms for some risk of flooding. However, other guidance suggests
that rainfall will be progressive enough that these concerns might
be mitigated.

Activity on Saturday will influence how Sunday pans out,
specifically regarding the potential for continued showers/storms to
close out the weekend. The cold front looks to continue pushing
southward, with guidance indicating increasing chances for
precipitation (30-60%) Sunday afternoon and evening along this
boundary. PoPs will be bolstered by a passing low-level shortwave in
the flow providing greater synoptic ascent with enhanced vorticity
advection. However, there is continued spread in the position of the
cold front and how fast it progresses southward during Sunday. If it
passes through quicker, the environment looks to be less favorable
for activity with greater cool/dry advection from the north. This
trend will need to continue to be monitored in subsequent forecasts
to better hone messaging closer to the end of the weekend.

Going into the week next week, PoPs decrease as weather cools
and dry considerably from this previous week under
north/northeasterly flow, ushering in much cooler (and better)
weather relative to this prior week. High temperatures reside
in the 60s and 70s for much of the area through the early week,
with overnight lows dipping into the 50s. By midweek, there is
indication of a renewed ridge building across the central CONUS,
which will serve to increase temperatures once again by the end
of the forecast period across the area. However, this rise in
temperatures looks to not be as dramatic, with highs topping out
in the high 70s along and south of I-70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the region for the majority
of the TAF period before TSRA chances increase in the final 6
hours. For much of Saturday, anticipate southwesterly surface
winds before becoming more westerly/northwesterly in the
evening. Thunderstorm chances increase across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri around/after sunset Saturday evening. Decided
to go with PROB30s for all TAF sites given some remaining
timing/placement uncertainty but the PROB30 groups do account
for the most likely TSRA window for this TAF period. With
storms, VIS could drop to MVFR. Behind the cold front, winds to
shift out of the north with CIGs falling to MVFR or lower...this
change looks most likely after 06Z Sunday, but a slightly
earlier progression of the front could lead to shifts in the
closing hours of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...Macko