049
FXUS63 KEAX 251229
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog persists this morning with some dense spots possible. Fog
  lingers until late morning when drier, colder air arrives.

- Winds become gusty this afternoon as much cooler air
  infiltrates the area (Gusts: ~25-35 MPH). Highs today in the
  mid-50 lower into the low to mid-40s Wednesday.

- Post Thanksgiving travel may be impacted by a storm expected
  Friday through Sunday. Rain and light snow could create some
  inconveniences. Confidence is increasing in rain/snow Friday
  through Sunday. Best chances for accumulating snow remain in
  far NE MO. Amounts remain uncertain with early guidance
  generally sitting around 1-2 inches (40-50% probabilities)
  across NE MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A pattern more akin to the windward Cascades continues with damp
cold fog lingering through the overnight. Fortunately, dense fog
will be much more patchy tonight compared to previous nights. Calm
winds will keep fog around through much of the morning before a
compact upper level wave and weak cold front move through ushering a
cooler, drier air mass. It would not be entirely surprising to
see a few isolated showers ahead of this boundary, but weak flow
ahead of the boundary and a lack of destabilization keep
precipitation from becoming more organized. Drier air at the
surface and aloft combined with a vertically stacked jet streak
rounding the base of the trough opens up sky coverage this
afternoon. Solar heating is able to mix down this brisk flow
resulting in wind gusts this afternoon potentially reaching
25-35 MPH (higher gusts near the MO/IA border). Gusty winds
continue through the night continuing to advect colder and drier
air into the region. Highs descend through seasonal normals
into the low to the mid-40s Wednesday. Mid-level ridging
embedded in the northwest flow keeps the flow of cold, dry air
into the area through the Thanksgiving holiday. Highs
Thanksgiving day remain in the upper 30s to low 40s with evening
lows in the 10s and 20s.

The weather picture for the weekend is looking a bit more clear.
Deterministic guidance is painting a bit more of a reasonable
picture with an upper level wave expected to move on shore from the
Pacific northwest. This upper level feature encourages the
development of a lower lee cyclone which looks to traverse the
established NW flow digging sharply into the south central CONUS. A
few other embedded shortwaves look to reinforce lift and continue to
perturb the atmosphere. Ensemble guidance remains consistent
with a large storm system affecting much of the central and
eastern CONUS this coming weekend. Guidance remains favorable
for most of our area to stay within the warm sector of the
system with 25th-75th percentile Max/Min temperature spreads
being 37F-45F and 31F-38F respectively. As you proceed into far
NE MO (e.g. Kirksville) these spreads become 32F-36F and
23F-27F. Precipitation is expected to matriculate in starting
Friday afternoon continuing through Saturday and possibly
extending into Sunday. With those temperature outlooks, the
primary axis for any accumulating precipitation appears to be
along and northeast of a line from Lamoni, IA to Hannibal, MO.
Snowfall spread ranges from 0-3 inches with the mean sitting
around 1" or less of snow anticipated to occur. With the
spreads expressed earlier, it cannot be fully ruled out that
there will not be any wintry precip as far south as the KC
metro, but chances are looking rather lackluster at this time.
Initial model output also calls for chances for freezing rain;
however, forecast vertical profiles do not present much
confidence at this time more favoring a straight rain/snow mix.
At this moment, this systems looks to be relatively marginal
from a accumulation numbers standpoint; however, being wintry
precip as well as the first real chance of wintry precip for the
season poses a potential to impact post Thanksgiving Day
travel, particularly across far NE MO. Keep checking back for
forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VIS steadily improves as fog gradually clears out this morning.
CIGs look to remain IFR through much of the morning. A blast of
dry air moves in behind a cold front this afternoon. This
raises CIGs and opens sky coverage; however, winds accelerate
becoming northwest and gusty around 20-30 knots with higher
gusts possible across the MO/IA border. Gusts continue through
sunset with winds maintaining around 15 knots through the
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel