733
FXUS63 KEAX 072330
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening
  along and south of a Kansas City to Kirksville line.
-Very Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
     hazards however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

MCS is moving through the area early this afternoon and is expected
to exit the area by this evening. Surface high pressure will move
into the area tonight in its wake drying and clearing conditions
out. This will allow temperatures to fall back into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. However, another active day is expected tomorrow as a
strong upper level trough will dig into the Upper Midwest forcing a
cold front into the area. Out ahead of this front temperatures are
expected to rise into the low to mid 80s this will help create a
very unstable environment with afternoon MUCAPE values between 3000-
4000J/Kg. This coupled with 35-40kt 0-6Km shear and steep mid level
lapse rates will be more than sufficient for severe storms with very
large hail the main threat, with damaging winds and the chance for
isolated tornadoes also possible. Severe storms will be possible
along and south of a Kansas City to Kirksville line. Despite recent
wet conditions flooding is not expected to be an issue due to the
progressive nature of the storms ahead of the front however, they
will be efficient rain producers so, some very localized hydro
concerns are possible. Similar to today, storms are expected to exit
the area Sunday evening with another surface ridge of high pressure
building into the area tomorrow night. This will bring seasonally
cool lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Quiet weather is expected for the first half of the work week.
Monday the upper level trough will continue to dig into the Great
Lakes region forcing a secondary cold front through the area. This
frontal passage is expected to remain dry but keep temperatures
slightly below normal with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure will dominate the area
under shortwave upper level ridging the builds into the region in
response to a upper level trough digging into the southern High
Plains. Highs Tuesday will rise to near normal in the low to mid 80s
before rising above normal Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper
80s.

The second half of the work week into next weekend looks unsettled
(but not severe) as the aforementioned upper level trough over the
southern High Plains will move into the area. This trough will be in
a form of a slow moving closed low which will allow storms to
overspread the area on Thursday. Thursday night into Friday morning
this closed upper low will remain parked over the CWA continuing
shower chances before finally becoming a open wave and shifting east
later Friday. Friday night into Saturday another upper level
shortwave with a closed low will move into the region continuing
storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Predominantly VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period.
Skies generally clear this evening as fair weather/diurnal CU
dissipate. Winds will be light and variable, eventually taking
on a southerly direction but remaining light. Cold frontal
passage latter morning into afternoon will turn winds more N/NNW
to around 10 to 15 kts. TAF sites appear unlikely to see
convection ahead/along the cold front, but may see post-frontal
elevated convection with guidance strongly suggesting. Timing of
front a little in flux still, so tweaks to timing may be seen
over next couple of issuances.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis