586
FXUS63 KEAX 051735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively warmer temperatures expected Today and Saturday.

- A storm system is expected to pass mainly north of the region
  Saturday night into Sunday, but looks to bring some chances
  for rain and accumulating snow across northern MO north of
  I-70 and the KC metro.

- Expect temperatures in the greater KC metro area to be in mid
  30s and wind chill index of mid teens.

- A brief warm up expected through Wednesday with a slight
  chance of precipitation on Wednesday in northeastern MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Temperatures will rebound back to seasonal normals today with
high temperatures in lower to mid 40s, with exception in far
northeast MO as they will gradually warm up to lower 30s. The
warmer temperatures today is result of a combination of 500mb
shortwave disturbance moving across the Central Plains and as
the surface high pressure exits and a developing low pressure
located in southern Plains begins we will see that the flow has
already turned southerly this morning and adjust southwesterly
through the afternoon. This will allow to push a warmer airmass
to push toward the lower Missouri River Valley along with a
push of moisture. Although mainly dry, the moisture will bring
in the higher level cloud cover. Unfortunately this warmer
airmass does not quite get into northeastern MO, hence the high
temperatures in lower 30s.

We have been advertising potential for a weekend system and
while some details are sill fuzzy, the main importance is the
ensemble members show a more northerly track of the storm
system keeping the brunt of storm with heaviest snowfall
accumulations across central IA as it skirts across northern Mo
Saturday night then pushed northeastern MO by Sunday. At this
time the probabilistic values of accumulating snowfall over 1
inch is 30-50% for areas northeast of Kirksville and only
30%-40% chance exceeding a tenth inch of snow along line from
Moberly to north of St Joseph. Some recent guidance shows a low
end potential for FZRA but leaning toward the better chances
for a smoother transition from snow and rain across an line
essentially Moberly to Chillicothe to Marysville around 6pm-
midnight on Saturday as it will likely be harder to set up
inversion profile to produce any significant FZRA as the low
level flow is not orientated to hold in the colder air at the
surface. So while there may be a brief potential of FZRA,
accumulating ice is not expected or lower probabilities at this
time. Precipitation should end mid early Sunday morning.

Temperatures will remain below freezing with high temperatures
near 30 across the greater KC metro on Sunday as the colder air
moves in on the backside of the system. Individuals outside on
Sunday afternoon into evening can expect temperatures to drop
mid 20s by 6pm with wind chill indices making feel like mid
teens. Will see those gradual warming temperatures on Monday
through mid next week as flow turns southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Winds remain southwesterly through the period becoming
light and variable after sunset. Winds return more southeasterly
after sunrise tomorrow. Clouds remain high through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...Pesel