338
FXUS63 KEAX 110813
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
213 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Wind Chill values in the upper teens and 20s this morning.

* Above normal temps expected this afternoon through the rest of
  the week.
  - Tue-Thur - Highs in the mid 50s to 60s
  - Fri/Sat - Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s

* Next chance for precipitation late Sunday into Monday...
  hazardous weather not expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Early this morning temperatures are already on the rise as a broken
to overcast high cirrus deck has moved into the area and increased
WAA has gotten underway. However, although temperatures are
already warming, as people head out the door this morning they will
be greeted with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s and that
coupled with southerly winds gusting to 20-30 mph that will yield
wind chills in the upper teens and 20s. WAA continuing through most
of the day will yield highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The WAA in
the form of southwesterly winds between 20-25mph will also lead to
slightly elevated fire weather concerns today as relative humidity
values drop into the mid 30s this afternoon. Late this afternoon
into this evening, a weak cold front will move through the area
however, a lack of cold air behind the front will keep lows
seasonable tonight in the mid to upper 30s. Surface high pressure
will build into the area on Wednesday however, despite weak mixing,
copious sunshine and height rises will aid in highs rising into the
upper 50s (northeast) to upper 60s (southwest). Continued height
rise are expected Thursday as upper level ridging builds over the
western High Plains in response to a upper level trough approaching
the California coast. This will help drive highs into the 60s to
near 70 on Thursday. Friday, the upper level ridge axis moves
directly over the area driving highs into the low to mid 70s...which
is nearly 20 degrees above normal for mid November.

There have been some changes in the model runs over the past 24
hours regarding precipitation chances this weekend. Models had been
bringing the aforementioned upper level trough moving into the
California coast into the southern Plains, in the form of a closed
low, by Saturday allowing precipitation to overspread the area
Saturday night. However, recent runs of the GFS and EC have been
consistently slowing the progression of this system which is typical
of closed upper low systems. Consequently, recent runs of the GFS
and EC now keep the closed low system from moving into the
central/southern Plains until Sunday night keeping conditions dry
for most of the weekend and holding precipitation off until Sunday
night/Monday. The NBM is still holding onto previous solutions and
has POPs overspreading the area Saturday night into Sunday which now
looks to be dry. Saturday is again expected to be well above normal
as upper level ridging remains in control with strong WAA...highs
are expected to reach the 70s area-wide. Saturday night a upper
level shortwave will move through the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. This will flatten the upper level ridge over the region and
send a weak cold front through the area Saturday night into Sunday.
Consequently, highs on Sunday will not be as warm but still above
normal in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Southerly winds gradually accelerate through the night
shifting more southwesterly by morning. Winds accelerate
becoming gusty after daybreak. A small window of 20-25 knot
gusts are anticipated in the morning before slowing to 15-20
knots through the afternoon. Gusts dissipate late evening
towards sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Pesel