094
FXUS63 KEAX 072116
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances (20% to 60%+) for light showers/drizzle Saturday into
  Saturday night. Snow flurries possible Sunday morning.

* Coldest temperatures of the season, so far, begin to move in
  Saturday evening and overnight.
  - Coldest Day: Sunday - highs in the 30s
  - Coldest Morning: Monday - lows in the upper teens to low 20s
  - Wind Chills: Approaching 10 deg F Sun and Mon AMs

* Temperatures quickly rebound during the work week with highs
  predominantly in the upper 50s and 60s+ from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Another quiet and seasonably warm day prevailed across the area
today. While a boundary did pass through the area overnight, turning
winds W/WNW, temperatures today remained similar to yesterday with
highs this afternoon into the upper 60s and low 70s. This largely
thanks to truly cold air remaining bottled up over the Northern
Plains and Canada and a decent downsloping fetch for our W/WNW. The
warmth comes to an abrupt, but fairly brief, end this weekend as a
large closed low in/around Hudson Bay and a series of northern
stream shortwave work to bring about the coldest temperatures of the
season (so far).

To start the weekend, conditions tend to remain on the warm side of
normal this time of the year for much of the area as winds become
more S/SW ahead of an approaching/developing surface low and parent
northern stream mid-upper shortwave. Breadth of guidance (synoptic
and hi-res) are in good agreement on the track of the surface low
and parent shortwave taking them predominantly across
central/northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Coupled with the left
exit region of a 100+ kt upper jet rounding the shortwave, lift will
be deepest/strongest from far northern Missouri and into/across much
of Iowa. A locally dry air mass and surface low path will make it
difficult to see much appreciable precipitation for much of the CWA
with the most likely outcome appearing to be amounts around or a
little greater than 0.10" for areas near the Iowa border, quickly
tapering off southward. This too tends to be reflected within NBM
Probability of Precipitation as you peruse lower-end thresholds. Any
wrap around/backside precipitation too will be hindered by locally
dry air. More noticeable will be the cold frontal passage itself as
it will push sustained winds toward 20 mph and gusts to around 30
mph across much of the area. This will begin the cool down with
daytime temperatures likely peaking around noon then falling
remainder of the day.

A trailing shortwave associated with the dropping Hudson Bay closed
low will quickly approach the area Saturday night into early Sunday
morning and bring with it a reinforcing, and colder, push of air.
Synoptic guidance the last few runs has also hinted at the potential
for some light precipitation, and has been further reinforced as we
have entered hi-res/CAM windows. Various soundings  tend to suggest
much of the precipitation potential will occur while surface
temperatures are just above freezing and a notable lack of
saturation in the DGZ (ice introduction). However, depictions of
weak instability (turbulence) yet may yield some light snow/flurries
being produced and reaching the ground. In most cases, whether
drizzle or flurries, impacts should be nil. Should a more "robust"
weak snow shower develop, some limited impacts could result.
Otherwise, expect breezy/gusty winds overnight and into Sunday
morning, not dissimilar to daytime Saturday. Sunday morning lows
likely in the 20s and highs to struggle to do much more than the 30s
across the area. Will easily be the coldest day of the season thus
far. And the coldest morning of the season, but will quickly be
supplanted by Monday morning lows in the teens to low 20s. Now don`t
shoot the messenger, but both Sunday morning (windier) and Monday
morning (colder but less windy) are poised to see wind chill values
in/around 10 deg F.

Aforementioned Hudson Bay closed low will continue to dive southward
through the Great Lakes, keeping the area under the influence of
northerly flow and cool/cold Monday with highs in the lower 40s.
Remainder of the work week sees temperatures quickly rebound as the
large scale pattern over the areas is highlighted by mid-upper level
height rises and ridging gradually building and moving out of the
western CONUS and into the Plains. This will yield temperatures
jumping back into the upper 50s to 60s for many, including some
lower 70s for southern areas of the CWA. Throughout this time, dry
conditions favored to prevail as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions to prevail across the sites, but issued TAFs will
look busy due to wind shifts and gusts as a cold front
approaches and  passes through the area. Winds today primarily
out of W/NW, shifting CW overnight to S/SE by daybreak, then
back out of the NW late in the period. Sustained and wind gusts
strongest late in the period as frontal passage moves through,
up to the mid 20s kts for gusts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis