714
FXUS63 KEAX 251137
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous flash flooding remains possible early this morning
  from eastern Kansas into western and northern Missouri. This
  includes the Kansas City Metro area.

- The flash flooding potential continues this afternoon into
  Saturday Morning, mainly for areas along and north of the
  Missouri River. There could also be a few strong to severe
  storms this afternoon and evening from northeast Kansas into
  northwest Missouri.

- Hot and humid conditions return this weekend and persist
  through the middle of the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Southwest flow aloft overriding a surface to low-level
stationary front with strong moisture transport feeding in from
the south continues to promote widespread thunderstorms with
very heavy rain across the region this morning. Through 4 AM,
the highest rain amounts have generally been located along the
I-70 and Missouri River corridors, as well as southern and
eastern portions of the Kansas City metro area. Of lesser
concern this morning, dense fog has developed near the northwest
corner of Missouri, with zero to quarter mile visibility
reported consistently from Nebraska City to Clarinda, IA over
the last few hours. Will continue to monitor, but for now the
dense fog appears to be holding just outside the stateline.

Very little change in the synoptic pattern is expected today,
although the surface/low-level frontal boundary could push
slightly northward. A mid-level shortwave and associated MCV
currently over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles is forecast to
eject northeastward into the southern Missouri River Valley
later this afternoon, sparking additional rounds of
thunderstorms. A continuous stream of poleward moisture
transport with greater than 2 in. precipitable water (at or
above the 99th climatological percentile) will continue to
promote a dangerous setup for flash flooding caused by excessive
rainfall through tonight. Due to the location of the heaviest
rainfall overnight and a slight southward shift in the ensemble
mean QPF footprint, the segment of the Flood Watch that remains
in effect until 4 AM this morning has been expanded southward,
and now includes Johnson County in Kansas and Jackson to Saline
to Macon Counties in Missouri, and all other counties in both
states to the north. Counties to the south that remain under a
Flood Watch still have an expiration time of 10 AM this morning.
While the potential for additional flash flooding remains the
greatest concern for convection later today, there could also be
a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and perhaps a weak tornado, though confidence in the latter
being a threat is low. Forecast deep layer shear only around 25
to 30 kts will be a limiting factor preventing more widespread
severe storms. HREF UH tracks show the highest likelihood of a
stronger to severe storm to be along and northwest of I-35.

Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast for Saturday, but there is a much lower risk for severe
storms and excessive rainfall. The NBM then favors a period of
drier weather through Tuesday before 20 to 40 percent chances
for showers and storms return mid week. The greatest concern for
the long term forecast period is the potential for excessive
heat as a dome of high pressure builds over the southern CONUS
this weekend into next week. Sunday through Tuesday looks to be
the most concerning time period, with forecast highs in the 90s
and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s yielding maximum heat
indices around 105 to 110 each day, possibly pushing 115 on
Monday. The upper ridge is then favored to retreat westward for
the second half of next week, allowing a cooler and slightly
less humid air mass to approach from a seasonably strong surface
high pressure over the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Light rain and occasionally MVFR CIGs continue across the
region this morning, with this likely to linger at/around the
terminals through around 15z/16z, at which point rain should
dissipate and CIGs improve to VFR. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are likely to develop later this evening (after
00z), especially for STJ. Confidence is lower for the KC metro
terminals, so went with a PROB30 from 2z through 8z Saturday for
now. Winds should remain light, and either out of the southeast
or variable.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>032-037>039.
     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ033-040-
     043>046.
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-102>105.
     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO BIS/Hollan
AVIATION...BMW