Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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572 FXUS63 KEAX 081725 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain showers should overspread the region from SW to NE late tonight into Saturday morning/afternoon. - Rainfall amounts between 0.25" to 0.75" are likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows a strong upper level low over New Mexico this morning with a mid level speed max rotating through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into western Texas. Forcing for ascent and low level warm air advection has yielded widespread convection across much of the Southern Plains, with high level cloud cover beginning to overspread our region from the southwest. Surface high pressure remains in place over the region this morning, with nearly calm winds and 2 AM temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. The aforementioned upper low over New Mexico and associated trough will eject to the northeast today, with the upper low progged to be centered over the TX/OK panhandles by late afternoon. High level cloud cover should only increase throughout the day today, with dew points also increasing several degrees. A relatively large precipitation shield should approach the area from the southwest this afternoon, and some drizzle or even light rain will be possible this evening for southwestern portions of the CWA. Widespread showers should finally overspread the area from SW to NE overnight tonight into early Saturday morning as the low occludes over western Kansas and the occluded front lifts northward toward Missouri. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible as there may be just a little bit of instability available, especially toward the Ozark Plateau. Rain should end from SW to NE by late Saturday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are currently forecast to range from as much as 0.75" toward Bates County MO/Linn County KS to as low as around 0.33" across NE Missouri. By Sunday, the low should have progressed northeastward into the Great Lakes region, with zonal west to east flow taking hold over Kansas and Missouri. This should result in clearing skies, slightly breezy westerly winds, and high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s for Sunday afternoon. Generally tranquil weather conditions should persist through Tuesday with daytime highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Chances for rain return to the forecast next Wednesday as models suggest another trough potentially moving into the Central Plains, although the ECMWF and GFS currently differ quite a bit in terms of the details of this trough. For now, slight chance to chance PoPs (20 to 40 percent) are in the forecast for Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Primary aviation focus will be on the arrival and impacts of rainfall overnight tonight through Saturday morning. Currently, mid to high VFR ceilings will continue to spread across the region through the afternoon and evening. Anticipate rainfall to arrive at sites between 05 to 06Z. MVFR ceiling and vis will persist within expected showers, with IFR ceilings developing before sunrise. Some improvement to conditions will exist late in the period, as the system begins to lift east and northeast of the terminals through 09/18Z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Kurtz