Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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098 FXUS63 KEAX 220516 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1116 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry conditions expected through early next week. - Next chance for precipitation (20-30%) will be Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 As the system continues to move eastward across the area the pressure gradient will continue to weaken across the area today which was assisting with the northerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph across the area. These winds will continue to diminish as the system moves further east. With the surface ridge of high pressure across the area through tomorrow, this will keep the temperatures on the cooler with high temperatures remaining in the 40s across the area this afternoon. Expect a decent radiational cooling for later tonight which will allow for minimum temperature on Friday morning to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s. As we move into Saturday, the surface high pressure ridge will shift southeast of the area and there will be a decent amount of warm air advection. This will allow temperatures to slowly warm up particularly for Sunday as high temperatures will move above normal into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Probabilities of exceeding 60F degrees on Sunday per the NBM showing 50-60% for the greater Kansas City metro area with probabilities >80% south of KC exceeding 60F degrees. A cold and dry front is expected to move through the area Sunday night which will drop temperatures back down, with Sunday being the warmest day through next week into Thanksgiving holiday. There is still stronger cold air advection behind the front that will allow high temperatures of Monday to remain in in the 40s. A surface high pressure will move into the area Monday night into Tuesday and our area will be in a zonal flow. Temperatures will remain cooler on Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Chances of precipitation continue to increase as we approach the Wednesday and Thanksgiving time period. While there is still uncertainty in the models, there appears to be more consistency so that precipitation chances have increased 30-40%. In general an an upper level trough is expected to move through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, while previous GEFS kept precipitation to south the latest run shows moving across on Wednesday night into Thursday. There also appears to be increasing probabilities of wintry mix as well for areas extending just north of KC metro area through Chillicothe to Kirksville with snow further north of St Joseph and rain south across the KC metro to Sedalia. Long range probabilities show potential for snow or wintry mix 20 to 30% with best chances at this time on the northern side of KC metro area. For now, have mentioned the wintry mix within the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. As relayed in previously this system will certainly be monitored and awareness for the potential for hazardous driving conditions on one of the biggest travel days of the year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period with mostly clear skies expected over the terminals. Predominantly west-northwesterly winds between 5-10 knots are forecast during the overnight hours, extending into the daytime as well. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MK AVIATION...Hayes