238
FXUS63 KEAX 160847
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler conditions today, though highs will still peak above-normal
for most locations.

- Precipitation chances return Monday evening with the best
probabilities (30-50%) east of I-35.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected through much of the
  upcoming week. More widespread chances for precip arrive
  during the second half of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Cooler conditions are expected today with the passage of the cold
front yesterday reorienting our winds out of the north. Mid to upper
level ridging remains upstream of our CWA over the Great Plains with
a cut-off low just coming on shore near Southern CA. At the surface,
high pressure over the Northern Great Plains is tracking to the
south/southeast. As a result, expect winds to stay fairly weak
shifting more easterly through the afternoon as the surface high
continues to move south. Even with the valiant efforts of the cold
front yesterday, high temperatures this afternoon will still remain
just a few degrees above seasonal averages, mostly ranging around
the mid 50s to mid 60s.

For Monday, the pattern continues to shift east as another mid to
upper level low descends along the western coast of the U.S. forcing
the previously-mentioned cut-off low near Southern CA back into the
flow. The mid to upper level ridge that was over the Great Plains
will continue its track to the east over the area resulting in
mostly quiet conditions through the day Monday. By Monday evening,
precip chances arrive as the cut-off low pushes a surface low and
its associated fronts towards the area. Weak isentropic ascent
within the warm sector (seen on the 295K and 300K surfaces) will
provide lift for some light showers and potentially a few sub-severe
isolated storms. Given the limited instability (MUCAPE values up to
around 300 J/kg and a present cap) and little moisture (dew points
in the upper 40s to low 50s and a dry layer near the surface) storms
seem less likely. Even with the showers, uncertainty exists as
models continue to trend a little drier with each model run. For
now, the most favorable areas for showers still seem to be east of I-
35 with forecasted precip totals remaining below a tenth of an inch.

The mid to upper level low that descended the western coast of the
U.S. will eject mid-level shortwaves through the flow resulting in
multiple chances for precip for the second half of this week. The
best chances for significant rainfall seem to be Thursday afternoon
into the overnight hours. Concerning temperatures, conditions
gradually cool with widespread highs in the 50s (still slightly
above seasonal averages) by Friday and lingering through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

High pressure will keep conditions fairly mild across the
region. Some high level clouds expected through the overnight
hours. Winds will gradually shift eastward through Sunday
afternoon. Cloud cover increases into Monday but most of it is
beyond the current TAF period. Will need to watch fog potential
at the STJ terminal in the river valley.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull